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 ringgit Malaysia drop , how to I change my RM to USD

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AVFAN
post Jul 7 2015, 11:39 AM

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now:

3.805-3.810

"stable" - do what u need to do!
AVFAN
post Jul 7 2015, 07:47 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jul 7 2015, 03:29 PM)
Not much of movement today
1.00 USD  = 3.81658 MYR
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becos bnm been intervening. the blip was obvious today.

let's see how well bnm will do, how much fx reserves will be spent.

QUOTE
Malaysian central bank defends ailing ringgit amid political storm
By Reuters / Reuters  | July 7, 2015 : 7:10 PM MYT 

SINGAPORE (July 7): Malaysia's central bank intervened for a third successive trading day on Tuesday to support the ringgit currency, traders said, as corruption allegations swirled round Prime Minister Najib Razak, raising doubts over his grip on power.

Thanks to Bank Negara's damage limitation, the ringgit has lost only 0.8 percent since the political storm broke on Friday, but it has weakened past an old currency peg of 3.80 per dollar, fixed in September 1998 during the Asian financial crisis and scrapped in 2005.
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/m...political-storm


AVFAN
post Jul 8 2015, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jul 7 2015, 11:08 PM)
1.00 USD  = 3.83299 MYR 
Heading to 3.85 tomorrow?
*
doesn't look like it.

bnm doing a good job for now.

3.81 it is.


AVFAN
post Jul 8 2015, 10:31 PM

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QUOTE(bengang14 @ Jul 8 2015, 01:26 PM)
Hi guys.

do you all bet on SGD or USD? any difference?
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it is diff for diff periods.

for last 1 month, about same.
last 1-2 yrs, usd better.
last 5 yrs, about same.
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=SGD&view=1M

so, it may depend on yr personal "logistics" which one suits u better.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 8 2015, 10:34 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 9 2015, 06:11 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jul 9 2015, 04:58 PM)
1.00 USD  = 3.7966 MYR  rolleyes.gif
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it's ok la...

3.8 is something our minds are used to. biggrin.gif

something "fixed" is better for biz, people can now go about doing their thing in calmness rather than nervousness.

sure, prices of many things with imported content or value added will go up in price soon as old stocks no more, new stock will cost more.

bottomline - wallets shrink, again.
AVFAN
post Jul 9 2015, 06:40 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jul 9 2015, 06:31 PM)
How long will BNM support MYR @ 3.80 considering its international Reserves is dropping?  hmm.gif
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biggrin.gif

QUOTE
Foreign Exchange Reserves in Malaysia increased to 107424.10 USD Million in May of 2015 from 106113.20 USD Million in April of 2015.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/f...change-reserves


usd107 bil... anyone has any idea how much has been or will be used?
AVFAN
post Jul 9 2015, 06:46 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jul 9 2015, 06:45 PM)
MYR have depreciated from 3.65 end of May to 3.80 now
I reckon BNM have utilized sizeable sum to support
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we await june data in early august.
AVFAN
post Jul 10 2015, 09:18 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 9 2015, 11:28 PM)
Sellers wil want to up the price when the exchange rate goes against them,.. becos they are not stupid too. The sellers would know how to calculate in order to MAXIMISE their profits. Secondly, do not forget tht the ingredients required to produce the commodity may be imported. Using yr example here, it would be fertilizers. If the RM drops badly against many currency regimes, thn the cost of fertilzers wil go up, increasing the cost of producing the palm oil. Increased cost means need to sell at a higher price again.
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1 exported gain, 1 importer + 9 consumers lose.

tourism... it will depend more on the underlying industry if it is well developed and thriving. thai baht may appr but will not see less tourist $.

weak currency can't be better than a strong. if there are some benefits, there will be 10x disbenefits.

if the reverse is true, why bother to wait - devalue 10% every year, reap all the benefits, no?!

this "weak currency = good" is syok sendiri only, imo.

AVFAN
post Jul 10 2015, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Jul 10 2015, 09:27 AM)
It's "theoretical" to say when currency weakens, it benefits export.

There are hard facts which say otherwise, Malaysia exports have been diminishing :-

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...fall/?style=biz

And the amount of export seems to get worse and worse.
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that is the point. too simplistic to say "weak curr = incr exports"; only politicians say that.

if the demand is not there or others can sell as cheap as you, may even decrease as per currently.
AVFAN
post Jul 11 2015, 07:30 PM

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QUOTE(nexona88 @ Jul 11 2015, 05:16 PM)
Ringgit seen undervalued based on economic fundamentals
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...tals/?style=biz
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hv u ever read anything from anyone that says the rm is "over valued"?!

QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jul 11 2015, 07:03 PM)
1.00 USD  = 3.79230 MYR 
Not much movement today
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wait next week, we might see something, what intervention behavior.

.. yellen hawkish last night about rate hike this year
.. bnm shix hits the fan..?
http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/...or-najib-leaks/
AVFAN
post Jul 13 2015, 10:20 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jul 13 2015, 10:10 AM)
Ringgit likely to stay below 3.80 to US$
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...036;/?style=biz
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of course, with intervention. i hope it can stick around there.

may get costly, though. with oil price falling again, greek drama not ending yet, china market still in a daze.

QUOTE
Foreign investors offloaded RM811.7m last week
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/f...8117m-last-week


now, 3.8015.
AVFAN
post Jul 14 2015, 04:34 PM

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QUOTE(BboyDora @ Jul 14 2015, 04:26 PM)
we are back then ady  cry.gif  cry.gif
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well, int rates are not that high at this time.
we can expect bnm to intervene and hold at circa 3.80 for as long as possible - 3.80 is an impt pyschological level, should not be broken so easily.
meanwhile we wait for next couple of months data to see how much forex reserves spent on it - this will give a clue about future direction.

QUOTE(BboyDora @ Jul 14 2015, 04:23 PM)
So anyone can advise how to do that. The nearest country is singapore. Do singapore bank allow us to bank in money there even though we are not residents or working there?

I know can buy Singapore stocks or Singapore REIT... but how about bank in? =))
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non-residents, not working there - difficult to open foreign curr accounts.
u can search the forum, a dozen threads or so on this already.
AVFAN
post Jul 14 2015, 05:32 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 14 2015, 04:51 PM)
Two possibilities :-
1) Chek with HSBC, if you have an account there. can thy help to open one in Sgp for you ?
2) If you have enuff dough, call a private banking instituin based in Sgp.
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for both, i think it will take "millions" to get it done.

not for those thinking rm10k, 50k, 100k.
AVFAN
post Jul 14 2015, 10:24 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jul 14 2015, 09:10 PM)
Hi,
Just want to ask, we saw that bnm defended the ringgit at 3.8. So in the event US increase the rates, any chance it will go beyond 3.8?
Cause the way I am looking at is bnm won't let it go pass 3.8. But we all know that can only happen if bnm have enough foreign reserve.
Need your opinions
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that, not even bnm people can answer u now.

if us does raise int rates and i expect it will in sep, by 25bps, it just makes the intervention more difficult, more costly.

we may get a better idea in early aug to see what changes in fx reserves for june 2015 - likely some intervention already started then and not only in july 2015.

check this around aug 7 for update.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/f...change-reserves
AVFAN
post Jul 15 2015, 09:59 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jul 15 2015, 07:17 PM)
The ringgit rate now is not reflective of M'sia's economic fundamentals
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/my/article/f...ic-fundamentals
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with bnm intervening now, it becomes much harder to say if rm is undervalued... or over valued!

take today, yellen just reaffirmed probability for rate hike this year... euro, yen, aud, sgd, baht all fell 0.3-0.4%.

but rm stays at 3.80.

foreign funds still selling at bursa, crude price falling again... plus:
QUOTE
Malaysia's July 1-15 palm oil exports down 14.6 pct m/m - ITS
15 Jul 2015
http://www.theedgemarkets.com/en/content/s...20oil%20exports


3.80 = undervalued or overvalued at this time? hmm.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 16 2015, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(dwin95 @ Jul 16 2015, 12:36 PM)
or NZD even? theyre pretty low for us to jump ship too
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QUOTE(dwin95 @ Jul 16 2015, 12:33 PM)
is buying AUD stocks or keeping excess of AUD a good plan B now? For real I have more confidence in the land down under compared to our stupid jibby nation..
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aud, nzd been declining against rm for some time now. but they have seen interest rate cuts, not here in msia yet.

bnm been intervening to maintain it at 3.80x/usd.
usd strengthening again since yesterday, so if rm is "pegged", great time to buy almost any foreign currency now.

australia, new zealand share one thing in common with misa - commodity exporting countries. and commodity prices are low at this time with no good reason to think any of these currencies will strengthen against usd or euro or yen anytime soon.

so, if need to use aud/nzd now, great time to buy.

for long term purposes, usd or euro or yen or sgd will be a better choice, imo.

the uncertainty we have at this time:

.. how long will/can bnm intervene?
.. will the intervention maintain 3.80x or let it slide slowly?
.. with gst and what not, gdp growth may slow to the extent bnm may cut interest rates...?





AVFAN
post Jul 16 2015, 07:54 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Jul 16 2015, 07:42 PM)
we have no idea what the fundamental of RM should be.
do we know?
Zeti said it's undervalued, but Zeti may not be faithful because of her position and responsibility for RM's stability.
Well, fundamental of Malaysia is the key factor to judge RM's fundamental.
Major concern for all of us today is political unstable and our inability to mature the level of corruption by government. 

so conclusion for myself is: i don't know. i've no idea.
therefore, what best for me is to diversified my assets under different currencies, now at USD and HKD, which is not very good because these two is kind of linked together actually. But in long term, I still see HKD moving towards RMB. In past 2-3 years, I have gradually moving my RM assets (stocks) into USD and HKD assets (stocks), now already reached 50:50. My target is continue moving out from RM, probably reaching 30:70 stage. Probably should start looking at emerging markets such as Vietnam and India.

Funny how, I am actually looking at Iskandar to be major beneficiary of Singapore. If Iskandar works out well, I should buy Singapore assets (stocks) instead of Iskandar assets. The best is that SGD is a great currency.  laugh.gif
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yo! good stuff.

i m in agreement with u in general, esp about diversification.

better be safe than sorry! sweat.gif
AVFAN
post Jul 16 2015, 09:26 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Jul 16 2015, 09:23 PM)
Why wiuld you want to diversify into the emerging mkts like Vetnam and India now ?
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can start "looking", but action... no.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Jul 16 2015, 09:44 PM
AVFAN
post Jul 20 2015, 11:48 AM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jul 20 2015, 08:30 AM)
Uncertainties cloud ringgit’s true value
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...alue/?style=biz
When v can expect those uncertainties disappear?
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QUOTE
Eventually, the fundamentals of the economy will begin to reflect the value of the ringgit. But the currency will only be able to live up to its true value when the other components come into play – such as political stability, policy certainties and governance in handling public funds that is growing.

that bit makes sense, so we only have to ask - are the politics of late improving or getting worse? is governance in handling public funds improving or getting worse?

there are also other things - inflation is creeping up:
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/inflation-cpi
will gst cause slower spending to cause gdp growth to slow to prompt bnm to cut int rates?

there is no data at this time to support a stronger rm w/o bnm intervention. we wait for june-july exports, trade balance and fx reserves data - that will give more clues incl the first clues since bnm intervention.

uncertainties there will always be, esp external ones. it is a matter of how well prepared a country is, how to minimize the negative impact and not add more trouble to it.

btw... aussie, kiwi, russian, turk, brazilian currencies been battered too and they also say their currencies are way undervalued, fundamentals strong. who is to say they are right or wrong except free market forces?


AVFAN
post Jul 20 2015, 06:38 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Jul 20 2015, 06:03 PM)
Avoid herd mentality as almost every Ppl said MYR is useless
Instead, sit down n wait for the dust to clear b4 action
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80% may say rm is no good, there is also 80% not doing or unable to do anything.

what i am really concerned is if this is prolonged or gets worse than 3.80 eventually given we import mainly from these countries. it can get very ugly for the mid-low income groups if and when prices of food and daily essential rise dramatically in the next yr or so.

QUOTE
Malaysia main imports are: electrical and electronic products (27 percent), chemicals (9 percent) and machinery, appliances and parts (8 percent). Malaysia's main import partners are: China (16 percent), Singapore (12 percent), Japan (8 percent) and the United States (8 percent).
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/malaysia/imports


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