After 17 version of discussion, the question is "Is there actually a bubble all this while, was it merely media sensation ? Has the so call inflated real estate has become inflation as income improved over the time ?

Come fellow comrades lets discuss.




http://www.theborneopost.com/2014/12/13/st...layers-in-2015/


http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2014...nt_18976780.htm



This post has been edited by jolokia: Dec 24 2014, 08:24 AM

Special Post Award

By Showtime747

@bearbearwong is a very interesting forum member in LYN. His behaviour brought us lots of fun and at the same time, he showed us many things which we should avoid. There are many mistakes he made, and below are 6 mistakes made by bearbear which I think home buyers and investors alike can "learn" from him and avoid them in their future purchases :

Mistake #1 Confused objective
bearbear's intention to buy a property is for own stay. For own stay, the objective is totally different from investment. For own stay, it is 1 of the 4 daily needs (clothing, food, dwelling and transport). Just like clothing, food and transport, we buy a house when we need it (like marriage). We should not delay because it is our need. We can always choose a budget that suits us. But bearbear wanted designer cloth and BMW instead of something more affordable. He wanted those mid-high end housing >RM600k instead of those RM300k+ which is his actual affordable budget.

Moreover, for own stay, the future rise and fall of market price does not affect him. He still have to own the house if the market price increase by 100%. He can't sell it for profit otherwise he has no roof over his head. Likewise, if the market falls by 50%, he will not sell either. A house for own stay is a need, not an investment which could turn into profit or loss due to price movement


Mistake #2 Buying a property is a 1 time decision
bearbear thought that buying a house is a 1 time decision (like marriage). But in fact, almost everyone have the opportunity to upgrade their house in the future. Therefore, we should buy a property based on our own financial ability at that time. We should not think that we will be stuck with a property for whole life. We can always sell it and upgrade to a better property in the future. Thinking buying a property and will stay in it for the rest of you life will make your purchase decision very difficult


Mistake #3 Timing the market
Nobody knows the timing of market ups and downs. It applies to any market including stock and property. So, it is foolish to time the market for best price. Instead, the best time to buy a property is when you are financially ready and comfortable. Timing the market is like gambling. If you time the market wrongly, the loss is substantial. Just like the DDDs for the last 5-6 years, they have missed the great opportunity of riding the super bull run which has never been seen in malaysia property market history

Over long term, in malaysia property market history, market price will increase between 5%-10% pa on long term average. So, in 20 years time and beyond, the property will appreciate at least 3 times. Of course, there are ups and downs during the 20 years period, but if a person holds a long term view, the price is on an upward linear trend as history has shown us


Mistake #4 want to wear too big a hat
bearbear's salary is only RM4k gross. His saving is only RM40k. But he aspire to buy property in the region of RM600k-RM700k. He has over-stretched his budget. The result would be catastrophic. A property buyer should not over-stretch their financial ability, unless he has backup from PAMA or spouse. With RM4k salary, bearbear should only be looking at property in the region of RM300k-RM400k. However, he even take into account his 3 credit card limit of RM50k in choosing his target property. Using credit card as part of the deposit is plainly a foolish decision

Be truthful to yourself. Weigh your financial ability objectively. Face and social status will be down the drain when repo man knocks on your door.


Mistake #5 getting influenced by his working life
bearbear has a "hazardous" job. His repomen job forces him to meet people who failed financially everyday. When he sees people bankrupt day in day out, he is influenced by them and giving him an impression that many people are facing financial trouble. This could have lead him to believe that most people are not prudent in their financial management and hence, most property buyers are vulnerable to fail. His mindset has become negative and pessimistic. Causing him to read any news and deduce his own findings negatively.

His world becomes doom and gloom and market will crash soon. He cannot see the market objectively anymore. As such, his market outlook causes him to think crash is coming and he should delay his purchase decision.

Property purchase is 1 of our biggest decision. We should be more objective when making such decision. Try to get advice from as many people as possible instead of being influenced by people around you.


Mistake #6 wish the environment to come down to meet his wants instead of working towards achieving his wish
He already has a job. He can work hard to improve his income. If he works towards improving his income by double to RM8k, buying the property of his choice is no more an issue. However, instead of working hard to achieve higher income, he blame the market instead. He whine about the UUU, the flippers, the government etc for causing the price to inflate exponentially until his current salary could not afford.

Instead of working hard, he spend a big proportion of his productive time from 7am - 12 midnight in the forum argue with the UUU and other property buyers. He did not realise he is spending his time unproductively and will not help in his career. He should have use his productive time to work towards how to achieve better career path instead.

We should always bear in mind in this cruel world, nothing will come to you unless you make an effort to achieve it. Ie. there is no free lunch and complaining wouldn't help you get what you wish



I am sure there are more bearbear's mistakes which we can learn. Feel free to add on

Contribution from our previous TS Bear Bear Wong

Current cooling measures implemented by government of Malaysia inclusive of state, bank negara and federal:

a) Removal of DIBS

b) Foreigner restrictions increased from 500k to 1 million which was enhanced by breaking to 3 zones in KV
respectively for residential & commercial (in short hot areas in Klang valley had raised the bar to 2 million above)

c) RPGT (disposal of property within 5 years) in force 2014 are now chargeable tax:
1-3 year= 30%
4 year= 20 %
5 year= 15%

d) DSR (debt to service ratio) in force on August 2013
loans approved are based on 70% max from your nett salary

e) Maximum loans tenure up to 35 years or max 70 years

f) Government intervention in building affordable houses

g) 3rd and above house maximum loans of 70% from financial institutions

h) etc

Current price range : mostly sub sales are priced between 300k to 800k
: mostly new launches are priced between 400k to 1 million

Current rental price range./most optimum demanded rentals : between 1.2k to 2k

most new launches rental yields will score negative rental yields especially 500k category or 300k above properties above

***
for newbie/first time corner to own a house:
a)due to the current price of new launch are withing 400k to 1 million,new launches tend to have package and minimum down payments as possible to facilitate buyers to own a property

b) as for sub sales groups, due to the properties within the region of 300k to 800k, buyers now need to provide the following:
i) down payments (around 30k to 80k, depending on range)
ii) legal fees for Sales & purchase agreement ( around RM2.25k to RM6.5K)
iii) legal fees for loan agreement (same around RM2.25k to RM6.5K )
iv) stamp duty for Sales & purchase agreement (RM5K to RM18K)
v) stamp duty for loan agreement (RM1.5K to RM 4K)

**all in buyers/newbie need to fork out a range of (RM45k (for a RM300K property to RM115 K (for a 800k property), not inclusive of disbursement which may easily cost 10k for all the above (depending of firms) renovation, and etc, just mere basic unit or old sub sales with renovated

the calculation can be found below link, put in your figure into the S&P/loan/STAMP DUTY calculator:



Units available:
a) apartments
b) condo
c) double storey
d) Towns house
e) Semi detached & Bungalows

**Mass supplies are mostly found in category b & c

Upcoming property challenges and external factors:

a) affordability (higher entry prices with down payment, legal fees stamp duty)
b) OPR/BLR increase
c) Inflation
d) Property price going up (resulting stretching away from valuation)
e) Transaction volume
f) Competitive packages
g) Government affordable houses
h) GST implementation

Upcoming factors boosting property property price /external factors:

a) MRT completion
b) star LRT extension
c) MRT extension (Putrajaya-Klang extension)
d) population increase (migration of population to KV & johor)
e) government package of stamp duty exemption of 50% on properties below 400k and below 500k( terms and condition applies just in force after budget applies to loans too)
f) developers are bypassing DIBS programmer (by giving high rebates, such as marking up prices and etc) to qualify lower entry
h) Financial institutions are offering to cover all interest served during constructions by either factoring into the loan sums

Outlook of properties that were risky of correction in TS personal opinions are for properties purchased 1st hand (developers sales):

a) those range below 100k ( flats & apartments are best bargain chip, no bubble and renal yields are the best, suffer hardship in selling due to old units)

b) those range below 300k ( apartments & maybe condos & townhouse or even double storey in some areas consider very good bargain in sub sales as these sub sales price falls within the region of the lower bracket of affordability i.e maybe around 400k to below 500k, rental yields also good as design are more modern especially condos)

c) those range below 500k ( mid end & high end condos, apartments, double storey , semi D in some cases) quite risky investment as the sub sales price are climbing up to 700k above region in sub sales and mostly located outskirt properties or newer/modern properties especially outskirts projects like Semenyih, Bangi, Rawang, Seremban, or high rise within city center and mature areas.

d) those range 600k and above ( latest generation of property double storey, semi D's and bungalows with most modern facilities and facades) investment is rare is this category , most developers are holding to these properties with these pricing.. no competitions meant for own stay category

** categories a & b can be considered as blue chips in properties, even they can be sold, the rental yields covers as median /optimum rental demands are between 1.2k to 2k (highest demands)

**category c are highly likely to face bubble with vacant units

**category d shall remain resilient in price, these are meant for own stay products and if there are invetors, it will be a long terms ones

Other factors/abusive factors which push the property price by using (agency body & financial institutions):
** detail explanation will provided later

a) Marking up prices normally sub sales (malpractice by valuers, loan officers, owners & buyer)
b) soft launch, official launch, for VVIP's, investors clubs, developers staffs and etc
c) reintroduction of rebates/DIBS into the property buying activity by returning money back upon completion, no need down payment is needed and etc), one of it is by jacking up the price.
d) deployment of potential buyers by developers to portray a good/hot buying project
e) refinancing activity to buy more term by borrowing more monies under the cheap interest of (BLR 6.85- 2.45=4.XX) rather than personal loans/constructions loans/and etc to prolong the sub prime crisis while awaiting time pass to pay for sub sales
f) sales & purchase activity between family members like selling to family to get loans that can be used to service loans and prolong the defaulting period
g) developers launching new phases with higher price, this has to do with mentality to the coming investors or recurring investors, by launching prices higher, this gives them a feel of "paper gain" scenario
h) suppressing bad news about property investment & those disseminating it

Copyright BearBear Wong (President of LYN DDD Club).. brows.gif (Self Proclaimed) tongue.gif

Continuations from Cybermaster98 4 critical sign of property bubble & Bearbearwong Multi factor of property bubble.

Pertamaxx!

Anyway bubble or not time will tell

https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3448534

Voting Result

Thank you fellow member for you support & participation in the poll.

wah so fast one???

Advice to young & Newbies Buyer.

By Showtime747

Let me give an overall idea of the development of the property market in malaysia for the past 20-25 years.

1. In the 80s and 90s when I was the youngster in the 20s, we do not dream of owning a property. Due to the strict bank requirement then, property owner has to prepare about 15% of the property price as deposit+legal fees. Further more, the interest rate is around ~8% with tenure of max 20 years

2. So, the barrier of entry into the property market is high. The first being the 15% deposit (the killer) and secondly, the high monthly instalment due to high interest and short tenure

3. Furthermore, parents of youngsters in the 80s and 90s were mostly not tertiary educated. So, the parents do not provided financial assistance to buy house. The fact that the parents sweat out to provide tertiary education to their children is already a luxury

4. Hence, for youngster will wait right until age ~30 thereabout, only they consider buying their first property after climbing the corporate ladder high enough.

5. Fast forward to 2008, when the Americans implement QE1, QE2, QE3 (unlimited). The world was flushed with money. So much money that the door of banks' vault cannot close properly So, they relax their policy to lend out their excess money. As a results, interest rates is reduced to all time low. Loan tenure increase to 40 years. Can't afford the 15% deposit ? Nevermind, banks partnered with developers and allow buyer "zero-cost" entry.

6. This open the doors to many new pIroperty buyers previously can't afford to buy due to points in #2 above

7. These property buyers include fresh grads in their early 20s. Coupled with their partner (female who are getting more educated and earning as much), suddenly they can afford housed in RM500k range

Your generation is much blessed. At least you have the chance to own a house at such early age. Whereas, my generation with the 15% deposit and high interest barrier, we don't even have a chance at all

My advice to the youngster now is try to work hard and earn more money. You can always partner your other half and afford the monthly instalment. In the 80s and 90s not that many ladies were as educated as the men, so the ladies were more a burden then. Now, the ladies are a contributor to our household.

Don't blame the free market as a hinder to your dream of owning a house. Be positive and find ways to realise your dream

As the saying goes "if you are born poor, blame your parents. If you die poor, blame yourself"


This post has been edited by jolokia: Dec 27 2014, 02:34 PM

Courtesy of Tnang (Translate by Jolokia "That's Me Cough2 )

怀有以下七种想法的人，可是很难买得到房的哦。大家可要看清楚咯！

Seven type of mind set that make it very difficult for them to get a property !

1、永远认为房价还会跌的人。
这种人每天都在盼望崩盘，最好是开发商把房子都造好了再倒贴给他，在等待奇迹会发生的梦中人！

Always think property price will drop someday
These type of people wish for property crash, at best developer can actually sell to them at loss, they always wish for miracle to happened ***Dreamer***.

2、永远总是慢人一拍的人。
看房的时候，这好那也好一到关键时候就磨磨唧唧，当断不断，犹犹豫豫，总是等机会过去了再懊悔的人。

Always slow poke type

When ever they go & see a property, they keep thinking & thinking, dragging their feet, think east think west, wanna buy donna buy, always wait till the opportunities bygone or over & then starts regretting.


3、永远都不相信开发商和中介的人。
这些人永远都以自己为中心，宁可自己负天下人不能天下人负我！世界上没有纯为人民服务的开发商也没有永远坦诚的中介，毕竟大家都是做生意要吃饭的，关键是你怎么去看怎么去对待！

Would never trust developer & agent type

This type of self centered people would always think is better for me to take advantage on the whole world rather than let anyone trying to take advantage on me, one need to know there is no 100% honest developer & agent, after all every one just doing their job & earn a living, it is how you handling the deals that counts.


4、永远总是看而不买的人。
这些人不是不想买，而是总想多看几套结果一看就不可收拾，房子总是越建越好，价格却也越升越高，好不容易看好了一套一问价格傻了，怎么和我当初看的价格差这么多呢？

Those who only wanna see but never wanna commit to buy

Some of these people actually wanna buy, but just wanna see a few more, then a few more & again a few more, there are always better built better design, better concept along the way, by the time they decide & come back to the house they first thought of buying " Holly crap when i see it previously it was so much cheaper, how come now price increased again. alamak


5、永远相信专家的话。
孰不知那些天天喊房价要跌的专家其实一边在喊跌一边却在到处抄底，试问下那位专家不都是有好几套房子？如果房价靠那些整天就知道吹牛皮的专家能跌下来，那……那你相信吗？

Those who only believed in Guru, expert, journalist

Unknown to them those who claim property crash coming, price will sure drop soon, this theory that theory, this prediction that prediction, specialist, guru, expert, property author, tell me which of them didn't own a few property them self ? you actually think the entire property market can crashed down based on a few bull expert ? Oh come on !


6、永远都在等待房价跌到谷底的人。
这些人就跟炒股票一样，天天在等抄底，可是又有几个能知道谷底在哪呢？

Those forever waiting for the lowest price

Just like equity@share market, everyday waiting for lowest price, so how many of you actually know when is the lowest price ?


7、永远总想买套十全十美的房子。
这些人往往口袋里都没几个钱，所以总想把钱用在刀刃上！实际上有见过十全十美的房子吗？结果在看了N套房子后终于觉得累了困了，明白了房子原来是不能没有缺点的，在遇到一个黑中介或者是黑心开发商拼命地忽悠下一头就栽进去了，最后就整天在lowyat/kopitiam怨天怨地怨

Always waiting for the perfect price for the perfect house

Many of them doesn't have much in their pocket, they always talk about "Berbaloi" "Worth it" "Best value for money" ask yourself this have you seen one ? after seen many house till tiring, you should understand there is no perfect house, surely some how rather there is some imperfection here & there, these they of people probably will end up meeting a super con agent or developer, end up getting real bad deal,& whole day kao pek kao bu in lowyat kopitiam... tongue.gif

This post has been edited by jolokia: Jan 2 2015, 07:09 PM

Open for Business

This post has been edited by jolokia: Dec 24 2014, 11:44 AM

Save yourself selipar king aka doggy bear bear .

Planing to eat selipar rice still proud of yourself?

This post has been edited by cunt: Dec 24 2014, 11:46 AM

QUOTE(**** @ Dec 24 2014, 10:45 AM)
This is actually the only solution for doggy bear bear for him to buy 700k, but he wont lar, He later will say you all dog eye him, lawyer needs to work part time during weekend ?

Jiak sai lar doggy bear bear wong. f***ing useless man, you think we dont know ica man boy is actually your girl friend?
LoL
*
Christmas eve oso very tension.. cant spend.. you 28 years old like krandun.. he got family sponser marriage you got nth..



Doggy bear bear planning to selipar rice with ice cream girl girl can be so pround of yourself?

Save your own ass 1st , go get a container for you and ice cream girl

Ah don't jello other lah, some are born lucky mah, you are born half lucky loh, got land but cannot sell

Earn your own loh ! Cannot seat down & refused to move right ? House Die Come Down & Walk loh !

Price wouldn't come down unless crisis hit lah ! When crisis hit you be chickened out to buy also..

Ah bear..u the one said FSAMA one.

musteng said ccris bafia is he wrong lah.


Btw..u think ppl no need work ah..24/7 kopitiam reply u? Why u so free post here now
No ppl to repo is it...no ppl to repo means good economy lo. U also wan fat lan ja

Ah bear said bad economy period only need QE. This sound like buy the umbrella only when raining. economist really so short sighted as he think?

When the doggy bear bear ( Gou Xiong ) losese his freaking job as repo-man.

I suggest him to join the other side of the game to become property flipper

When the combo effect kicks in next year, bear bear sure cry like baby.

1. Weaker Ringgit . Overseas working class (Malaysians) in SG,HK,AUS,CANADA, US,UK all will have more purchasing power to buy.

2. Lower interest rate means no reason to save in FD anymore, most likely will park in property.

2. GST effect will be countered by oil price. Contract effect makes people have more money to spend.


Jiak Sai lar bear bear . How? Live in a container with ice cream girl girl?

In view the Spirit of Christmas i forward free non x+200K house to Ah Bear...

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This post has been edited by jolokia: Dec 24 2014, 12:16 PM

can see. cannot eat

BS Lai Lai Lai. V tok kok here

If cut OPR.....damn....got extra budget to eat more dim sum. May be tried go eat steak every tuesday night. Force myself to spend that extra durian runtuh....really drop from roof of BNM woh..