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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V148, Shale Oil! Bear or bull?

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cherroy
post Dec 15 2014, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 15 2014, 09:31 AM)
OOPppssss

EPF is SELLing BUMI by the MILLIONS!    sweat.gif
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Already a trend for the last couple of weeks.

A couple of millions is nothing for a penny stock.

The stock has > 5 billion shares.

Volume has died down a bit signalling a more stablise movement for in stock price.
cherroy
post Dec 15 2014, 10:49 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 15 2014, 10:46 AM)
EPF has 500mil BUMi shares..........    sweat.gif

Calculate the paper losses............their cost will be around Rm3.2
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I don't think anyone cost on Bumi is RM3.2.

Bumi underwent a bonus issue + right issue at Rm1.35 just no long ago.

So even one bought at Rm4 (its peak) prior before the bonus and right issue, adjusted is about RM2.30 only.
cherroy
post Dec 15 2014, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Dec 15 2014, 10:55 AM)
(2xRm4 + 1.35)/ 3 = RM3.117
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Should be

(2xRm4 + 1.35) / 4 (bonus issue given for free) = Rm2.33

So if bought at IPO which is about RM3.

Cost = (2 x Rm3) + 1.35 / 4 = RM1.83.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Dec 15 2014, 11:03 AM
cherroy
post Dec 15 2014, 03:08 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Dec 15 2014, 01:39 PM)
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/products-services/gst
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/misc/system/a...97/FAQs_GST.pdf

from my understanding it's
6% Clearing Fees
6% Trading Fees (Commission?)
sigh.....

2014 gains all wiped clean....  doh.gif  doh.gif
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6% on commission to broker.

Eg.
last time trade commission is Rm12, with GST, it become Rm12.72.
cherroy
post Dec 16 2014, 09:00 PM

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QUOTE(the99percent1 @ Dec 16 2014, 05:47 PM)
buying into energy is still good.. the world still needs oil, electricity. How can energy go bust?

Buy into oil. This is the cheapest you will get it for awhile...
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Energy won't go burst, but company with high debt and over commit can... whistling.gif
cherroy
post Dec 16 2014, 09:02 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Dec 16 2014, 05:50 PM)
u try and open an account to trade future..

buy crude oil future for say.. june 2015 la (long enuf to see oil rebound i think)

Then hold it and see.. then u will rasa rasa a bit biggrin.gif
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Provided have enough spare cash for margin call first before seeing rebound. whistling.gif biggrin.gif

A bear run could easily mean a spell of period of a year up to few years sometimes.
Once trend reverse, be it bull or bear generally take sometimes to find its peak or bottom.
cherroy
post Dec 16 2014, 09:16 PM

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QUOTE(Oracles99 @ Dec 16 2014, 04:13 PM)
If you recall the 1997 crisis, it started with the speculative attack on the MYR. This time it is also the depreciation of the MYR. If oil price keeps falling, we will run into a twin deficit as early as the first qtr 2015. It means that the MYR will depreciate further. This time it is not expected to have a v-shape recovery as the is no more QE. Interest rates are expected to rise in order to cap the MYR from dropping. This is of course bad for the market.
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The difference between now and 97

Malaysia doesn't start with massive trade and current account deficit, whereby prior 97 unfold, Malaysia has twin deficit and low foreign currency reserves.
Now with USD120 billion foreign currency reserves (97 less than USD30 bil), and still not yet twin deficit situation provide plenty of cushion. Also lesser foreign denominated currency bond/loan as compared.

At the moment, there is no need to increase the interest rate to stem the RM dropping, as most currencies around are dropping against USD across, not solely RM.

Whilst in 97, the currency plunge was on solely a few crisis hit countries (high current account deficit + high foreign debt + low foreign currency reserves to fund them).

So it is not "attack" solely on RM, whilst 97 was.

In fact, China did cut interest rate, while Thailand was rumour to be as well, as well as there may be a cut from RBA as well in near future.

So situation is a lot different with 97.
cherroy
post Dec 17 2014, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(kuluuluk @ Dec 17 2014, 04:50 PM)
Any commodities generally won't plunge to dirt cheap one, as if it does, it will kill the supply, eventually, supply become less, price recover.

We don't need rocket science or crystal ball to know oil price will stable at a level and creeping up over the long term.
Just like we won't buy a terrace house with 20K like 70's,
Rm1.00 petrol per litres,
RM0.50 per bowl of hawker mee.


cherroy
post Dec 17 2014, 09:51 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Dec 17 2014, 05:23 PM)
thing is, world's most efficient companies able to dig/produce oil at US$20-$30 or so. That would be pretty dirty low as compare with US$100 our recent normal price, and still another 50% discount to current price. Oil stocks can go lower for another 50% from current price, which means 80% discount or so at their peak price just few months ago. That's pretty hurt already.
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Once the profit margin is not encouraging, it will dent future capital investment towards it, eventually resulting in future supply is contained at existing level.

While in future if there is increase in demand, the supply may not able to catch up, as you need years ahead for capital investment to increase supply, hence price could soar at that point.

Once profit margin is not good, it is a supply destruction factor.

This was what had happened when oil price was below USD20 time during 1998~1999.
When worldwide economy did recover back then, supply has hard time to meet the demand, hence building a strong bull run afterwards for the rest few years time.
cherroy
post Dec 17 2014, 10:37 PM

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QUOTE(MGM @ Dec 17 2014, 10:29 PM)
So this is an opportunity to invest in fundamentally strong O&G counters?
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I have no crystal ball, but this is few area I find at least attractive in value.

Unlike other blue chips even though KLCI already plunged more than 100 points, many of them still rather "expensive".
cherroy
post Dec 18 2014, 09:56 AM

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Cannot be straight line down one lah, in between there will be bounces along.

But situation is "calmer".
cherroy
post Dec 23 2014, 04:04 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Dec 23 2014, 02:33 PM)
Ya ...buy when there is abundant of Fear..and Sell when Hope is abundant ..

For those who bought Armada at rm One  oledi enjoy the fruits...... yawn.gif
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The stock fell from >Rm2.00 to Rm1.00

Those who bought at RM1.80, Rm1.60, Rm1.40, Rm1.20 also take advantage of "fear".... tongue.gif

Only the last/lucky one that manage to fish at bottom enjoy the fruit.

So now is full of hope or fear? biggrin.gif
cherroy
post Dec 23 2014, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Dec 23 2014, 04:47 PM)
Wait for it to stabilize before u catch..IT ...Rm One plus 3 sen or so..

If a stock would not become a permanent penny stock...then it stands good chance for it to move up  ..aka uptrend..

My thinking is if Oil drops until Dow collapses , then it defeats  its own purpose of suffocating Russian Economy ...

50 to 60 level is deemed to be safe for a period of time...

BTW Dow is also fearful of further drop in Oil price.......plenty of Oil Bonds may go bust too..
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If the stock is not going down below RM1.00, it stands good chance to move up... laugh.gif
No difference as if it is not going down, it will move up. laugh.gif
A pre-requisite talk feature to become analysts, TV pundit, talk gurus etc. thumbup.gif

Oil drop won't cause Dow to collapse one.
In fact oil price drop is like tax cut for US people.

US economy is about consumer. If consumer have more money, then it is good for economy.

cherroy
post Dec 23 2014, 10:42 PM

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QUOTE(KVReninem @ Dec 23 2014, 10:07 PM)
if they are empty shell. then yeah.. fire sale
nod.gif
there is global consumer brows.gif <proxy> shipping.

anyway guys.

http://www.businessinsider.com/a-fantastic...-stocks-2014-12

so now buy time? hmm.gif
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Locally, many oil stocks generally are not dirt "cheap", but drop from expensive to now more reasonable/bargain level of teen number PE.

But some oil stocks like Petdag, Petgas still rather expensive if look at PE number. But their stock price hold up relative up due to many "support".

So it depends what oil stock then, some with high gearing, high USD borrowing which may need to make provision for forex difference that may hit the P&L as well.
With oil price plunging, those O&G company with due debt one may find banks want higher interest rate for refinancing.


cherroy
post Jan 8 2015, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(KVReninem @ Jan 8 2015, 11:07 AM)
MYeg bonus split hmm.gif
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MYeG charges Rm38 per person on the foreign worker renewal permit, and with recent news of immigration no longer handle the renewal, all must go through MYeG (the only one route so far), estimated 2 million plus foreign worker currently in Malaysia which every year need to renewed one, estimate revenue can be generated from this change of policy by immigration department alone, may be around 80~90 mil.
cherroy
post Jan 8 2015, 05:11 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Jan 8 2015, 04:31 PM)
Learned about this 2 weeks ago. Just didnt think that it would be such a huge that would boost the share price so much.

I really wonder if they really stopped all of those services though. I will be visiting again tomorrow to confirm.

Actually the only one complaining would be those runners who depends on providing such services. Its actually cheaper for employers to go through MYEG than to brace the traffic, queues, delays, server downtime etc. Like Jalan Duta branch for example, requiring employer (representatives) to queue from 7AM and stopped receiving after 830AM.
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RM 38 x 2 million + = extra revenue by simply "change of policy".

Somemore, under the MyEG renewal, IG must be bought through them, not to mention insurance cover that optional bundled when renewing time.

Encourage to renew through MyeG, save time on travelling, ok.
But compulsory must through them is another story.

Employer still need to go through hassle of register account with MyeG before can renew worker permit with them.
Mind that MYeg is not a gov entity, in the process of registration, company info, thumbprint will be obtained by a private company.

I don't think gov job should be outsourced to a private entity. Somemore, Malaysia currently is one of high gov servant vs population ratio.

For SME, sometimes it may be cheaper and hassle free for employer to renew the permit themselves through the counter.
GST already increased the workload of clerical job, now extra another job, not to mention EPF also need to submit online.

Online sometimes /= hassle free.
Another burden of keeping user name, password, clerical job.

Clerks may demand increase in pay... biggrin.gif


cherroy
post Jan 9 2015, 11:03 AM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Jan 8 2015, 11:06 PM)
Bro,

Have you been to any of them (imigresen) to do the renewal process? I can tell you, it has gone from worse to worst. If paying more will solve problem, you would rather pay. Its really that annoying nowadays. At the height of this mess, I actually filed a complaint with BPA (Biro Pengaduan Awam, directly under Jabatan Perdana Menteri) regarding the ridiculous 3months long appointment date at Jalan Duta branch. Even then there were no answer and they could only offer me "POSLAJU" for my case to settle the complaint.
» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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I don't know KL is so mess, at my place, everything still rather ok. No problem getting Q number even on afternoon.
cherroy
post Jan 9 2015, 03:54 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jan 9 2015, 03:51 PM)
Wah this Armada.. suddenly only.. LOL
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Any rumour?

Previous rumour of divestment?
cherroy
post Jan 9 2015, 03:54 PM

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Armada surging like finding gold...
cherroy
post Jan 9 2015, 04:24 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jan 9 2015, 04:06 PM)
No ooo..

Haha

I remember u say RM 1.00 want to go in, but see CEO cabut, u also cabut.. LOL
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Yalor, CEO suddenly cabut normally I also cabut one... laugh.gif

Buying at 1.1x is also not a bad price, if oil market situation calm down, and company CEO situation clearing up.

Don't need to weather the storm, only ride the boat after storm is over but at higher ticket price.
With price plunged from 2.00 to 1.00, going in at 1.1x~1.2 is still considered buy at low. tongue.gif

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