QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 12 2015, 04:25 PM)
i just can't see how rm can go back to <3.50 unless oil price returns to >60usd AND all the troubles clear somewhat.
most likely scenario for this yr, oil remains <50usd, all local financial n political mess same or bigger. so, u can make yr own forecast - u need one to decide where to put yr money or borrow money due to potential int rate changes.
something i learn over the years... these local banks, researchers, developers assocs - they get paid or privileges by powerful ones to paint nice stories. so, if they paint a slightly poor picture, it is probably quite bad. if they paid a truly bad one, it will too late already, no escape.
If they paint bad picture, a lot of time it is time to buy.most likely scenario for this yr, oil remains <50usd, all local financial n political mess same or bigger. so, u can make yr own forecast - u need one to decide where to put yr money or borrow money due to potential int rate changes.
something i learn over the years... these local banks, researchers, developers assocs - they get paid or privileges by powerful ones to paint nice stories. so, if they paint a slightly poor picture, it is probably quite bad. if they paid a truly bad one, it will too late already, no escape.
Tell me how many analysts positive about the market during 2008 crisis, Euro crisis?
Almost none.
Majority report said deflation threat, Euro disintegration, but now look back, it was once/twice a life-time opportunity to go in that now become 100~200% profit after several years.
Those report a lot of time "follow the wind" one.
When bull, talk about how high market can go.
When plunging time, talk about prolonged down time etc.
Now every report said oil price won't recover, oil supply glut etc.
No one said Rm can go back RM3.00 vs USD back 1998.
Everyone said oil price won't possible go back to USD50, when oil price hit USD120.
While just not long ago, most analysts said treasuries yield will go up when QE end.
Now treasuries yield plunging instead of rising and now below 2%.
Jan 12 2015, 06:01 PM
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