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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V148, Shale Oil! Bear or bull?

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cherroy
post Jan 12 2015, 06:01 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 12 2015, 04:25 PM)
i just can't see how rm can go back to <3.50 unless oil price returns to >60usd AND all the troubles clear somewhat.
most likely scenario for this yr, oil remains <50usd, all local financial n political mess same or bigger. so, u can make yr own forecast - u need one to decide where to put yr money or borrow money due to potential int rate changes.

something i learn over the years... these local banks, researchers, developers assocs - they get paid or privileges by powerful ones to paint nice stories. so, if they paint a slightly poor picture, it is probably quite bad. if they paid a truly bad one, it will too late already, no escape. tongue.gif
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If they paint bad picture, a lot of time it is time to buy.

Tell me how many analysts positive about the market during 2008 crisis, Euro crisis?
Almost none.
Majority report said deflation threat, Euro disintegration, but now look back, it was once/twice a life-time opportunity to go in that now become 100~200% profit after several years.

Those report a lot of time "follow the wind" one.
When bull, talk about how high market can go.
When plunging time, talk about prolonged down time etc.

Now every report said oil price won't recover, oil supply glut etc.

No one said Rm can go back RM3.00 vs USD back 1998.
Everyone said oil price won't possible go back to USD50, when oil price hit USD120.

While just not long ago, most analysts said treasuries yield will go up when QE end.
Now treasuries yield plunging instead of rising and now below 2%.

cherroy
post Jan 12 2015, 09:58 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jan 12 2015, 07:32 PM)
Roy gor...
now can buy reits anot jek ??
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Reit is not being hammered down... tongue.gif

Instead I want to dispose one or two that delivered poor result.
One gone, another one pending. tongue.gif
cherroy
post Jan 12 2015, 10:17 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jan 12 2015, 10:06 PM)
Finally ur sell button will emerge one also... HAHAHA

biggrin.gif
*
FD is better place to park your temporary money for time being, not reit. whistling.gif

Searching hard for higher FD rate lately? Haha. biggrin.gif

Property sector may undergo some challenging period when GST kicking in due to consumer sentiment.


This post has been edited by cherroy: Jan 12 2015, 10:31 PM
cherroy
post Jan 13 2015, 10:07 AM

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QUOTE(jerrychoo2004 @ Jan 13 2015, 09:48 AM)
just my personal opinion, we will see RM 30++ this year  tongue.gif
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RM30?

Means less than USD10 per barrel.

Cheaper than mineral water... laugh.gif
cherroy
post Jan 13 2015, 02:32 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jan 13 2015, 11:38 AM)
wow wow wow..

oil n gas counter hitting back oo

armada.. hitting o
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I smell there is something cooking on Armada, pretty strong buyer at 1.20 level.
cherroy
post Jan 13 2015, 02:35 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jan 13 2015, 12:02 PM)
CIMB really hangat!
*
Rumour merger call off.
cherroy
post Jan 13 2015, 02:58 PM

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The bear of FKLI taught, oil price continue to slide down, has upper hand in theory, but now being slammed hard by the bull.
cherroy
post Jan 14 2015, 09:31 AM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jan 14 2015, 09:22 AM)
too bright will blind
*
Blinded then hit the wall and fall off the cliff? laugh.gif
cherroy
post Jan 17 2015, 10:51 AM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jan 17 2015, 10:39 AM)
Crude oil is not marginally higher.. still stuck at that same level.

just tat it never slip to the 30s as some analyst said
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There is high possibility oil price bottom out at USD40+ level, price movement seems more stable.

As usual lah,
when price shoot up, lot of prediction made by analysts going to 150, 200.
Now bear run time, then talk about 30,20...

So if you see from 30, then it is marginal higher loh... tongue.gif

There is possibility some short seller in futures market scramble to cover the short position, I can't see how oil price drop beyond 20~30 level, so if cannot drop beyond 20-30 level, 40 already near the bottom.
If it doesn't break 40, then it has high chance to go beyond 50. <---- sound familiar? laugh.gif
cherroy
post Jan 17 2015, 01:14 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jan 17 2015, 11:29 AM)
Cherroy become oil analyst already..?  hmm.gif
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Learning "analysts language"... laugh.gif
cherroy
post Jan 19 2015, 03:56 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Jan 19 2015, 01:50 PM)
is it possible to have QE and rate hike at the same time ?
just wondering what will happen to stocks if JYellen does QE4 but also raise short term rate.... rclxub.gif
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Why need QE when US economy is in good shape?

QE only happen when economy is difficulty, threat of recession/deflation looming etc.
When economy good, you don't need QE.
When economy not good, you don't raise rate.

So, QE and raising rate won't happen together.
cherroy
post Jan 19 2015, 04:01 PM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jan 19 2015, 03:30 PM)
Malaysia ? Qe1?
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QE only happened when you cannot use conventional financial tool (aka lower/hike rate) to maneuver the economy.

RM already dropping quite a lot with 3.25% OPR (which is considered high as compared), QE will send the currency further down, not some smart move.

Liquidity is ample domestically, so don't need QE.
BNM still has rate, financial policy to maneuver around.
cherroy
post Jan 21 2015, 05:01 PM

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What oil price impact, slow down?

Bull is charging and bear being slammed hard.
Approaching 1800, and making new high? whistling.gif
cherroy
post Jan 22 2015, 04:42 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Jan 22 2015, 04:32 PM)
Hartalega will finish two new plants this year. I already finish supplying some parts to the contractor. 4 to go but I think will be delayed with the current economic situation.

An additional 10b+ gloves this year. Man, competitions is getting stiffer.
*
Worldwide really need so many gloves?

So many new plants invested by gloves company across.
cherroy
post Jan 22 2015, 10:06 PM

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The QE is like a relay race. US then Japan then Europe.

It doesn't reward being a bear in the market.
cherroy
post Jan 22 2015, 10:30 PM

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QUOTE(ham_revilo @ Jan 22 2015, 10:19 PM)
after sept 2016, i wonder who is next hmm.gif
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who care 2016, the bull enjoy the ride at least 1 year plus.

Next year issue, next year worry loh. whistling.gif

New modern day share market, and business world, no longer talk about long term future to invest, as lot of things cannot be predicted nowadays.

The winner is always who ride with the wind.
Don't go against the market wind, don't go against the central banks intention.

If central bank want inflation, ride the inflation wind.
cherroy
post Jan 23 2015, 07:56 AM

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QUOTE(Bonescythe @ Jan 23 2015, 12:29 AM)
Like people said. when market drop, it is very very fast.. but it takes some time for it to go up..

So.. being a fast bear is good for a short time biggrin.gif
Being a long bear is bad for the long time biggrin.gif
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I quit shorting in FKLI, very hard to be a bear, once timing get wrong, burned badly, scramble to cover the short position.
While bull in FKLI, timing get wrong, never mind, roll over to next month or months, until become a gain.

Somemore index keep on changing its component, those poor performance being ditched out (like MAS), and take in good performance one, so index always tend to go higher.
cherroy
post Jan 23 2015, 07:57 AM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Jan 22 2015, 10:49 PM)
yep... who cares about what's coming after september 2016.... thats 1 year away.. they can goreng so many times before that...
furthermore, Draghi's QE is sort of open-ended... with first review on sept 2016..

and now.. we just need yellen to doubt US' recovery,,, due to the poor wage growth and dismal holiday season retail sales...
if she she really delays rate hike... that's when the crazy bull will come...

watch out for Fed meeting on 28th Jan!!!!
*
The only choice is buy buy buy now.
sweat.gif
cherroy
post Jan 23 2015, 09:31 AM

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KLCI is charging into new high territory.
cherroy
post Jan 23 2015, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Jan 23 2015, 11:46 AM)
U can talk like TTB ,,predicting market would fall from Year 2011......
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I taught he finally may be hit the bulleye after so many year, when KLCI dropped from 1800 to below 1700 just not too long ago, but now KLCI is challenging new high.


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