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 Traders Kopitiam! V6

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gark
post Nov 25 2014, 03:44 PM

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Guess who is back? brows.gif brows.gif brows.gif
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 03:50 PM

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Recap... went into 'jungle' to do project works for the last 8 months...not much internet access, now already completed and out of 'jail' already laugh.gif

Still holding most of the stocks unchanged from last time... portfolio on autopilot

Sold off 25% of Insas recently... sold all CBIP warrants.. but still keeping mother share.

Recently bought into Armada at 1.34 laugh.gif

Surprisingly my Indo stocks more or less gained >50% during my absence..all on autopilot laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 25 2014, 03:51 PM
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 03:53 PM

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QUOTE(holybo @ Nov 25 2014, 03:52 PM)
nice gain.. any views on UTDPLT? net profit jump but share price  cry.gif
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Umm.. still too pricy for me..

Share price drop because of CPO price and crude oil price sliding down.. wink.gif
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Nov 25 2014, 03:57 PM)
doh.gif  notworthy.gif

CMMT probably affected by Sg Wang Plaza, businesses are bad there.
Next year if OPR up REITs devalue again.

Or maybe already priced in.  tongue.gif
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Hmm thinking of dumping my CMMT too... lol

The Sg. Wang every Q also negative rental increase one.. like that how lar? laugh.gif
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 04:01 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 25 2014, 04:00 PM)
Cheh!

I thought you came back to give tips.

whistling.gif
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Hahaha.. got 1 tip there mah. wink.gif

So ... make lots of money recently? market seems flattish... hmm.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 25 2014, 04:04 PM
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 04:11 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 25 2014, 04:08 PM)
laugh.gif

That type don't count. tongue.gif

Errr..... I think you can go back to jungle for another few months! LOL! LOL! LOL!
Hehe.... not chasing you away but there isn't much out there right now....  sweat.gif  sweat.gif
and results in general, have been utterly................ shitty.

unsure.gif
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Some of the big big drops especially in OnG seems interesting... brows.gif
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 04:12 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 25 2014, 04:11 PM)
wub.gif
oi pakcik, mane pigi??? kitorang soma bimbang sama lu cry.gif
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Masuk hutan.. laugh.gif
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 04:17 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 25 2014, 04:14 PM)
Perhaps one or two but not all. wink.gif

The concern of course, is the impact on future job contracts and will some existing contracts be scaled down.....

I would rather see a more stable oil prices before making any new decision.
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Petdag seems interesting.. even oil price high or low, you need to pump.... sweat.gif

Also with the removal of petrol subsidy ... even if you don't like also have to pump

They earn a fixed margin of 5 sen every liter no matter what is the petrol price. laugh.gif

But the price is still a bit rich for my taste, but beginning to look interesting. whistling.gif

Armada's FPSO is like a reit on water... except their charter and T&I might get hit some.

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 25 2014, 04:18 PM
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 25 2014, 04:18 PM)
Choiiiii !!!!!
* vommit *
*
Hmm what does the feng sui chart says for December ah? laugh.gif
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 04:21 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 25 2014, 04:17 PM)
Now my money market fund also yielding 3.4%. Park cash there also thumbup.gif
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Next year with GST... inflation 10%. whistling.gif
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 04:23 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Nov 25 2014, 04:21 PM)
Should be 15 cents per litre no?  hmm.gif
Am working for an OnG company.

Hint: a downstream only OnG operator here.  tongue.gif
Time to bring out the 2015 versionnnnn  brows.gif  brows.gif
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No wor... they get 5 sen, station operator get 12 sen and govt get 12 sen tax. laugh.gif

But of course, they also own some station so... they get some share of the 12 sen. brows.gif
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(V-Zero @ Nov 25 2014, 04:26 PM)
Interesting.  hmm.gif
Is this fixed across different operators?
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Petdag only supply to petronas petrol pump, some of their pumps belongs to individuals. Nothing to do with BHP/Shell etc
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(lynetnonyma @ Nov 25 2014, 04:21 PM)
Finally you back in forum after 5 months (25 Jun - 25 Nov)....
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Ya .. long leave. brows.gif
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 25 2014, 04:29 PM)
Petdag?

I had a mini discussion with Felix.....

Results been bad for the past few quarters....

Did you know I used to own this fella? tongue.gif

Anyway, I will wait until I see a clear turnaround in earnings first. tongue.gif
Armada? Meh?
Really?
I dunno.
Never interested to look into it and the very few times I glanced at its earnings.. I saw decline in profits. wink.gif
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Ya... I am waiting for more clearer results too.
Petrol station growth will be more or less muted, not much growth potential here.
Cooking gas ... there is still some growth. Future growth will be in lubricants... laugh.gif
Now to see if they can turn the company around.

Armada catalyst is waiting for Kraken and C7 FPSO project to complete, these will not contribute to bottom line until 2015-2016. Armada Claire just reported first oil recently, also will only contribute from next Q onwards.

Next will be the Madura-Husky project & Eni 15/06, although madura have lots of delay, but I am optimist because Indonesian government is really really pushing for natural gas capacity. wink.gif

Armada's other segment will take a big hit in revenue from its OSV and T&I revenue, but those has been more or less priced in. This is a very long term play laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 25 2014, 05:41 PM
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 05:44 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Nov 25 2014, 05:43 PM)
how come u confident indonesia will give contract Armada since there other player FPSO
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Cause they won the tender already... just haven't sign the contract. wink.gif It's either will be Armada or no one will get the contract (project cancelled).... laugh.gif

Future FPSO contracts ...

Armada Kraken - Contract signed, ship fabricating, will begin operations in early 2016
Armada Sterling II - Contract Signed, ship already reach destination, will begin operation in early 2015
Armada 15/06 - Contract signed, ship to start fabricate, will begin operation in late 2016


This post has been edited by gark: Nov 25 2014, 05:48 PM
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 05:50 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Nov 25 2014, 05:46 PM)
news. link....AR report didnt see any special mention about this...
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Husky already given Armada a LOI, which means letter of intent. This is more or less confirm they are selected for the project. Once contract signed, then armada will start to build the ship. If no contract signed, then the project is cancelled.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


This post has been edited by gark: Nov 25 2014, 05:51 PM
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 06:22 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Nov 25 2014, 06:10 PM)
I do agree JOWOKI need to find way since last week he announce to abolish petro subsidize.

But still petrol is price control by market except Indonesia Oil able to drill the oil less than USD40 per barrel.

Armada revenue rm1695.5 million TYD 2014; a big jump but their revenue
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We buy shares looking into the future... not the past. laugh.gif

The current problems with Armada now is clear for all to see.. the margin drop, the weak oil price, the high start up cost, high depreciation... etc etc, which is all eating into their profits.

Armada can be said is biting more than it can chew, it is previously unthinkable for a FPSO company to start 3 FPSO project concurrently much less 4 if they do get the Madura project. This is because each of those vessel is going to cost them USD 1 bil ++ each and it will be a 3-4 years before the profits come....

Mind you, Armada is a very aggressive company, during IPO it has only 2 FPSO, now it has 5 FPSO and 3 more under construction.. all in the span of few years. rclxub.gif

But what you need to focus on is the future IF they can pull it off successfully. wink.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «


This post has been edited by gark: Nov 25 2014, 06:27 PM
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 06:31 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Nov 25 2014, 06:28 PM)
gambling...IF  hmm.gif
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Isn't stock market a form iof gambling...?

It just a matter to align the odds for you rather than against you.. then they call it 'investment' laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 25 2014, 06:31 PM
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 06:33 PM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Nov 25 2014, 06:32 PM)
Welcome back Sifu Gark!
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I am no sifu leh..

sifu that way -------> Boon3

icon_rolleyes.gif
gark
post Nov 25 2014, 06:37 PM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Nov 25 2014, 06:36 PM)
New York have early snow..forecast flood during Xmas..there no higher demand of oil & gas year end celebration.
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More snow = more oil consumption... whistling.gif

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