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 Traders Kopitiam! V6

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gark
post Nov 25 2014, 06:55 PM

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QUOTE(bursalchemy @ Nov 25 2014, 06:43 PM)
If your assertion for stock market investment is gambling. Then FD also a form of gambling, there are still probability that bank will default on the interest payment, like what happened in Greeks "haircut"

Even holding cash is also a form of gambling, we will not know what happen tomorrow to our economy. Our currency may devalue against other currency and reduce our purchasing power. Nothing is certain in every form of assets right?

Decades ago, the market treats gold as a safe assets and only will go up. But this is proven as wrong assumption as gold has dropped in value in recent years.

However, market still assume MGS is risk free assets. As government can print money when it want to bail the country's economy out.

None of any assets is certain right?
*
Life is also a gamble, for example when you decide to cross a road.. wink.gif

But then again, you can reduce the risk significantly, but not write it off completely, when you look left and right before crossing. whistling.gif

Same with any other investment..

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 25 2014, 06:58 PM
gark
post Nov 26 2014, 10:03 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 25 2014, 08:03 PM)
That might a problem, I reckon.

Don't like his companies.... tongue.gif
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Well high growth (via debt/leverage) can be double edged sword... if everything goes well and the economy supports it, it can produce excellent results. If not, then it will crash and burn under the weight of all the debts.

Many examples of companies on both sides of the sword. tongue.gif
gark
post Nov 26 2014, 10:07 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 25 2014, 08:01 PM)
meh????

tongue.gif
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Always the trouble maker eh?

Are you still keeping inari? Don't really like the upcoming rights issue. hmm.gif
gark
post Nov 26 2014, 12:53 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 26 2014, 12:18 PM)
LOL !!!!

Inari?
Finish stock already. smile.gif

Yeah, rights issue not so ok.
Do not like it at all.
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At what price you clear stock? tongue.gif

Thinking of clearing stock as well... rclxub.gif

But then again... nothing much to buy...

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 26 2014, 12:54 PM
gark
post Nov 26 2014, 01:05 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 26 2014, 01:04 PM)
Yeah Unker Gark...nothing to buy liao sad.gif
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You still keeping what? laugh.gif
gark
post Nov 26 2014, 01:32 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 26 2014, 01:14 PM)
On avearge about 3.10+

Yeah..nowadays what's available not so good. sad.gif
*
Hmmmm......

hmm.gif

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

gark
post Nov 26 2014, 01:33 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 26 2014, 01:14 PM)
AFG Maybank Bursa DiGi Karex Pharmaniaga
CMMT IGBREIT Quill UOAREIT
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Ok lah stable companies and REITs... playing safe ah? whistling.gif
gark
post Nov 26 2014, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 26 2014, 01:38 PM)
Any of those I have u think still value buy? notworthy.gif

Homer...made good gains and cabut-ed
Scientex also made decent gains and cabut-ed, scared Sinkapo property slowdown would carry over to Johor prop market
Masteel...went in too early (and luckily cabut-ed before the drop)
Supermax...cut loss (luckily), seems that glove stocks all not doing well

Tarak benda boleh main liao sad.gif

Observe trend of recent company financial announcements, most if not all companies reported declining margins and/or profits. Even companies like Dutch Lady also not doing well sweat.gif

Maybe should shift the cash back to unit trusts that invest offshore, esp ASEAN+HK ones hmm.gif
*
Eyeing a few, but still waiting for further results... hmm.gif

This is not only in Malaysia, but seems like a global slowdown. Indonesia stocks margin/growth is also slowing down... oil down, CPO down, coal down, commodity sliding... Japan recession, China cut interest rate...

I think best to go in now would be consumer staples. Reason, commodity price reducing, so their input cost will reduce as well...thus able to at least maintain margin. sweat.gif
gark
post Nov 26 2014, 02:04 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Nov 26 2014, 01:55 PM)
No wonder BAT so solid, no money also have to smoke tongue.gif

Palm oil stocks...also affected by CPO prices hmm.gif

Malayan Flour? hmm.gif
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Palm oil is commodity... laugh.gif

MFlour is semi consumer staples.. because most of it is sold to make... ? brows.gif

Ciggy, the rich dont smoke much, the poor smoke more during bad times ... laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
gark
post Nov 26 2014, 02:38 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Nov 26 2014, 02:17 PM)
ebola got no effect on glove stocks?
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Glove stocks.. current problem is everyone also expand like crazy, add billions and billion of pairs, hence competition makes the margin eroded.

But on the other hand...

Rubber and nitrile are commodity and they are falling daily...

But due to overcapacity, someone must die first... especially those who cannot withstand a margin squeeze.. sweat.gif

Then the remaining survivors will back to money making. icon_rolleyes.gif

I am still monitoring.. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 26 2014, 02:39 PM
gark
post Nov 27 2014, 11:00 AM

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QUOTE(lambethwalk @ Nov 27 2014, 09:59 AM)
gark is ALIVEEEEEEEEEE.... !  rclxm9.gif

hellooo ah Boon3  tongue.gif
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Lamby! I though you no more active... made any $$$ lately? laugh.gif
gark
post Nov 27 2014, 11:10 AM

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Adoi... Armada... sweat.gif
gark
post Nov 27 2014, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 27 2014, 10:35 AM)
Yup it was much harder to trade in general.

That one big bounce recently.... if you were patient enough... that was rather easy picking. tongue.gif
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Hmm if I am trading at that time.. would have bought some. nod.gif

But too bad missed it. laugh.gif
gark
post Nov 27 2014, 11:15 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 27 2014, 11:14 AM)
Why you buy so fast? tongue.gif
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Hehe... long time no trade, finger itchy liao. laugh.gif

Anyway today is D-Day... either they announce, get Madura contract, delay contract or cancel contract. I think that is what everyone is fearing. brows.gif

looks like the market expect to announce negative results. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 27 2014, 11:16 AM
gark
post Nov 27 2014, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Nov 27 2014, 11:17 AM)
Armada gearing very high..
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Much much lower after the recent rights issue.

But then again FPSO business needs to have high gearing to build new vessel. wink.gif

Most of their debt is secured with multiyear contract with asset guarantee, so there is very little chance of default.

Their capex will require at least RM 2.5-3 bil this year & next

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 27 2014, 11:22 AM
gark
post Nov 27 2014, 11:29 AM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Nov 27 2014, 11:24 AM)
but profit luxury..how come MISC look going up..LNG regasification at pengerang only ready 2016 ?

they hv secure business?
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Several reasons..

Number one it is rumored that they have patched things up with Petronas and the 4 new LNG vessle Petronas is building will be incorporated into MISC. LNG tankers have the highest profit margin for MISC.

Number two is that crude tanker index have shot up recently.. and now crude carriers command better pricing (almost double of last year). Crude tankers represents >50% of MISC's revenue and previously was money losing.

Number three, MISC is entering the lucrative FPSO market with joint venture with Petronas ... and have several rolling out soon. Thier current operating FPSO Kikeh is joint venture with SBM.

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 27 2014, 11:31 AM
gark
post Nov 27 2014, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Nov 27 2014, 11:33 AM)
MISC is better than Armada
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Yeah I agree... BUT... the price has run up from the reasons above.. all priced in already. tongue.gif
gark
post Nov 27 2014, 11:42 AM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Nov 27 2014, 11:40 AM)
Choosing MISC vs Dialog.

Dialog give steady divident.
*
I am looking at SKpet instead.. tongue.gif

During these hard times, a firm and large order book is required so the business does not dry up overnight...

Dialog.. price do not move much... not much bargain there. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 27 2014, 11:44 AM
gark
post Nov 28 2014, 09:50 AM

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Woooo Hooo... oil drop 7% this morning.. now at USD 68 bbl.. icon_idea.gif icon_idea.gif icon_idea.gif
gark
post Nov 28 2014, 09:51 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Nov 28 2014, 09:42 AM)
Anything with oil is getting absolutely hammered.   sweat.gif

Opportunity is there.......................................... cos clearly 'some' (not all hor) of the prices are already being hammered to the extremes already.  whistling.gif

But I would rather be patient.... and not attempt to be a hero by trying to aim for the bottom prices.

icon_rolleyes.gif
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I became hero already for Armada.. blush.gif hahaha.. waiting to pick up some more. rclxms.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 28 2014, 09:52 AM

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