stocks down 1%, crude down 2.5%.

eur/usd down 1.6%, approaching parity!

monday, we'll see many currencies get whacked.

rm likely 3.70.

better go shopping for imported foodstuff soon, and before gst kicks in!

with miserable rm, still costly to buy more even with correction.

will really have to pick carefully.

xle... i'll buy more at 73; xlv, will top up at 69.



meanwhile, my holidays will be restricted to klang-pj-kl, very acceptable.

cimb's itrade offer several overseas bourses to buy/sell online - nyse, nasdaq, hkse, sgx, thailand, indon. us markets include etf's. others like uk, australia - can only do offline thru broker.

not sure but i think mbb offers the same. rhb can't do us etf's online... not surprised becos recently someone reported hlb also cannot.

others may not be using local ib's but foreign brokerage houses. the former is a lot more expensive than the latter in terms of min brokerage, so not good for trading but ok for longer term holding. the former's main benefit is you can leverage yr total holdings in all bourses n currencies for any trade in any bourse, e.g. with sgx stocks paid up, you can trade us stocks if u wish.

my experience with cimb's itrade for foreign equities has been fine, incl reliability of platform, spread of fx and processing of dividends.

depends who u ask. ask jibkor or jeti, it shud be 3.00 becos everything is v good.

ask some experts, some say 3.73 is about right, some say it will go beyond that.

i only think about why it is the worst performing asian currency in the last 1 wk, 1 mth, 1 yr; what seeds have been sowed and if they will mean recovery or further depr. answer - i leave it to yr own analysis n imagination...

no specific no. has been mentioned so far. only "undervalued".

well, the strange thing is there is a now lot of contention as to whether msia is still a net exporter or importer of oil. gomen officials hv taken pain to say msia is now a net oil importer but is still a net petroleum exporter when gas is included. banks and intl analysts insist it is net oil exporter. while 30% of gomen revenues comes from oil, there is a huge oil import bill too. so, perhaps it is at a neutral point...?

i think the weak rm is not just about oil anymore. more to do with little fdi, decreasing foreign funds in bursa, illicit outflows, unrelenting habit of borrowing more, confidence, etc. 1 mdb is certainly having an effect - if gomen/fin ministry declares a total bailout (consistent with past records of such bailouts n rakyat forgeting quickly so can do it again), we'll see significant rm movement again.

advantages of weak rm... only for exporters in usd like rubber glove and palm oil cos., their shareholders, directors and employees, maybe tax dept too. disadvantages, no need to list....

weak currency->attract foreign money to local equities...? i think they will come if they can see the currency strengthening and not continuing to depr against their own currency. as it is now, i believe foreign funds are still net sellers every month for the past 1 yr or so. which probably partly explains bursa's sterile behavior lately - 54% bursa is owned by glc's, local funds like epf, local syndicates and punters trading but little foreign participation. and dun forget not only the rm is the worst performing currency in asia in 2014; bursa is also the worst performer among asian bourses in 2014, losing 13%:
http://www.therakyatpost.com/business/2014...ian-currencies/
http://www.bourseinvestment.com/content/wp...utlook-2015.pdf
looking ahead, have things changed or major efforts put in place to reverse the trends? that's the big question, isn't it?!

quite true - house prices doubled in last 10 years. some doubled in last 5 yrs!
food prices (except some veg, i suppose) have also doubled in last 10 yrs.
salaries probably average 30-40%.
the effects are clear!

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 8 2015, 11:50 AM

looks like a very uncertain, maybe volatile session tonite.

aapl launches apple watch-spring forward

if well received, price rise, nasdaq rise, all is good.

oil is dead... xle/oih will weigh...

haiz...

even at 75, very hard to buy with rm.

now 3.69 - that's more expensive than buying at 77@3.50!

will have to sit out for a while...

yes, spot rate used each time i buy with rm.

becos i dun wanna keep unused funds in usd for too long - no int earned for fx.

usd only with dividends or proceeds from selling.

still, glad that my holdings were all bought at 3.45-3.60. hence some profit in rm!

think not so easy...

everyday, there is some report saying "msia abc.xyz worst performer..."

today, this one:


fyi, rm touched 3.70/usd this morning.

one more bust session and you're there!

but i can't join you - rm too weak.

oil n energy looking pretty weak...

will oil go to 30?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/201...her-price-crash

some speculation on the subject...


This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 13 2015, 02:19 AM

hehe...

i had hoped it stay above 48 but has gone to 47 again.

usd seems to keep going up, not good for oil price.

will hv to watch closely...

doesn't look like it for now.

more countries do easing or lower rates while us hawkish on rate rise!

i see yen, won, sgd, myr all losing every week!

it will stabilize sometime... just dunno when...?

something to watch tonite; it's a friday....



and futures showing flat-lower...

i got my coffee ready.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Mar 13 2015, 06:31 PM

sea of red....

i see the oil stocks, i panic!

xle not too bad, think excellent support at 74.

it's not too early for you to plan yr holiday in europe.

parity might be achieved within days!

looks like another round of battering for many asian currencies next week.

i think so too. while yellen/fed maintains their hawkish stance, they r not stupid not to see what other nations r doing to their rates n currencies now. likely they will take their time to hike rate since other nations may already be doing the job for them!

yep, the old gets wiser.

at this time, indications r the usd trend will continue given europe only just started a massive qe program and all commodity prices - from oil to gold to sugar - continue to slump to multi yr lows. all emerging markets and commodity exporting nations are pretty helpless as this time. what is scary is if and when china do a massive qe too! it's currency wars at work.

i faced this challenge when rate was 3.4, 3.5, 3.6.

i place more emphasis on the usd price of the equity, if it is a good price to buy at any time. if i m targeting a certain stock at a certain price, i most likely will just go for it if it hits the price.

but yes, it is more difficult now that it is 3.7. the only thing i can do now is get really picky and patient. if it is simply too costly in my view, i just don't buy.

fx spread at even 0.3% is not a big problem unless u trade a lot, which i don't.

scenario of 3.7->3.5... in the foreseeable future, if one actually think that may happen, it will make no sense to buy us stocks. better off putting in bursa or vanilla fd.

as to the question will it go from 3.7 to 3.73, 3.77, 3.80, 4.0... who knows, who dare to say? everyone assesses the variables differently. what i read, there is no consensus where it will get to and stabilize. so, for now, i just to watch the number every morning.

this may be interesting and significant on the usd: