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RayleighH
post Jan 20 2017, 10:42 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 20 2017, 10:16 PM)
Well for SG part, if you are planning to pay say SGD18/transaction, the min you should go for is SGD4k. That will be about 0.4%+ (0.4% is I am using DBS V, the "+" is other clearing fees). Of course, best is if you can put in SGD10k which is equal to 0.18% but heck SGD10k is too steep for me. So I decide to go with the next best one which I can afford; SGD4k.

Also since I don't the money for access to Ireland based ETF, I will go with the SG UT: Fidelity America A USD. Pay 0.75% (one time payment - each time you buy only) which manage to beat the S&P500. One does not need a global ETF as from what I learnt in the FSM MY thread, global index have about 50-70% in the US market. SC of 0.75% is damn cheap compare to 2% by FSM MY and SG UT outperform funds sold by Malaysians fund house.

You might want to look into that aspect too. If you want to talk about all the fees, that's already counted in the NAVs already. That will be my substitute until I have enough cash.
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Very helpful information. Thank you notworthy.gif

RayleighH
post Jan 20 2017, 10:48 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 20 2017, 09:25 PM)
if u are really a novice in investing, then u hv a good mind and attitude, imo.
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Actually, i feel that I am more of the pessimistic and cowardly investor-to-be. The fear of losing all my hard-earned money is larger than the temptation to make big money from investments/trading. Which in turn, make me take much longer than others to get started in investing. Currently all my money is dependent on the paltry Fd interest rates. tongue.gif
RayleighH
post Jan 20 2017, 10:54 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 20 2017, 10:51 PM)
a lot has to do with yr age and whose money u r talking about! biggrin.gif

a young man can lose everything but has the time to find more in the next 30 years.

old folks... lose it, u r finished.

nasi and kangkung u get for every meal... which is good, they tell u. tongue.gif
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I'm am relatively young but my mind is like a old man's.
RayleighH
post Jan 20 2017, 11:05 PM

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QUOTE(rjb123 @ Jan 20 2017, 11:00 PM)
Regarding AVFANs earlier comment RE risk - if you're like me and just planning to buy boring buy and hold ETFs you can't really blow it too badly.

I'm more of this

If you're starting off with $10k USD and jumping into leveraged or inverse ETFs or leveraged forex and options then yes.. that's definitely risky.

And definitely not this. Too coward with the risks.

As default you only get permissions with foreign brokers for stocks / ETFs anyway.
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RayleighH
post Jan 21 2017, 08:07 PM

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QUOTE(MNet @ Jan 21 2017, 07:24 PM)
u can borrow personal loan to trade and earn much more compare to personal loan interest rate.
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Like I said earlier. I am scaredy cat. My guts cannot stomach such anxiety that comes with such investment/trading.

QUOTE(MNet @ Jan 21 2017, 07:25 PM)
That the mistake u make. u want to make perfect timing.
If u invest during USD1 = RM4.
Now u already gain. USD 1 = RM4.5
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Bro, I don't have the money previously, how to invest? I would have loved to have invested back when USD 1 = MYR 2.9 but still no funds also la. cry.gif

Then again, you're basing on hindsight. What if you expect MYR to strengthen in the future but instead it weaken further to USD 1 = MYR 5++? What if it stabilizes at USD 1 = MYR4.5 for the next few years? Then do you keep on waiting forever? I thought this is where the concept of DCA comes into play? Maybe the delta between the current forex rate and future might be rather big that infrequent DCA wouldn't be much of a help.

I don't know, since all these are things that I've read only and not actually experiencing it. Maybe those who have actual experience can chip in on their experience on how this will affect anything if the plan is for long term holding. Just do note, I am not looking for short term gains nor am I looking into actual forex trading.

QUOTE(MNet @ Jan 21 2017, 07:36 PM)
Which broker u go with?
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At the moment, I have not started with any broker. Still trying to get a feel of what each brokerage fee's and T&C are like before delving any deeper since local brokers have some sort of minimum trade requirement in order to avoid some fee on the divident or something (see, I still have to study more. So many things still in the gray area to me). If you have any recommendation, I would be very happy to listen. So far, in this thread, people have discussed foreign: TDAA, IB, DBS V, Standard Chartered SG and Maybank KE; local: iTrade, HLeB. (I think I've got them all here but then again, I may have missed a few)

This post has been edited by RayleighH: Jan 21 2017, 08:18 PM
RayleighH
post Jan 21 2017, 08:53 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 20 2017, 10:16 PM)
One does not need a global ETF as from what I learnt in the FSM MY thread, global index have about 50-70% in the US market.
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I just remembered something regarding this point that you've brought up. The VXUS ETF is actually exclusive of USD. The argument for it is, in the case of a downturn which affects US greatly, but not other parts of the world, this ETF will serve as kind of a hedge (I'm not sure if this is the right term, all of them are still rather vague to me). Though, looking at their performance, it seems rather unattractive with a CAGR of 1.++% since their inception. VXUS Performance

Though, how likely is this situation where US is greatly affected, but not the rest of the world? E.g. 2008. Would the sifu here enlighten me. I was rather oblivious to the world financial situation during that period but I had the impression that the effect was pretty much global.

This post has been edited by RayleighH: Jan 21 2017, 08:56 PM
RayleighH
post Jan 21 2017, 09:21 PM

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I slap together a quick calculation regarding forex fluctuation (or actually MYR strengthening continuously).

Please have a look and comment. Do keep in mind that I may have left out some details or overlooked some factors. So do point them out and maybe I can improve the sheet to reflect reality better. It's really just a very crude calculation.

Conclusion from it is that if the USD/MYR were to go from 4.5 to 3.5 at the end of the 10 years:
1. If you invest more at every four year interval, you'll be getting less 1.6% of your CAGR. (Four years is based on my personal capability to cough up USD10,000, may be different for you)
2. If you invest only once, then it's 2.6%. Probably this is rather big.

So if you can wait it out so that the MYR weakens closer to the value when you've invested, you may be able to reduce the percentage.

Simulating the continuous strengthening of Malaysian Ringgit over the next 10 years.

This post has been edited by RayleighH: Jan 21 2017, 10:23 PM
RayleighH
post Jan 21 2017, 09:27 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 21 2017, 09:25 PM)
Usually global index have 50-70% allocation in the US. So that way, it's better to just pick a US ETF (like VUSD https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/VUSD:LN instead of picking VWRD. Don't believe me? Check out the geographic allocation of VWRD.
https://americas.vanguard.com/institutional...QUITY##overview

When US sneezes, the world catches a cold.

So you can pick
1 US tracking ETF
1 Emerging market ETF
1 bond ETF

optional - portfolio of REITs.
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Does anyone here goes with the Warren Buffet suggestion of 90% S&P Index like VOO and 10% short term bond? Either way, what are your thoughts on this?
RayleighH
post Jan 21 2017, 09:32 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 21 2017, 09:25 PM)
What happen if MYR weakens to 5?  hmm.gif
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Then your initial investment untung lor. But subsequent purchase will be more painful when converting.

At intervals of 4.5, 4.75 and 5. You tend to get more additional 0.6% from the exchange rate rate. Though, these are probably too idealized calculation.
user posted image

Actually, if the MYR weakens continuously until you cash out from the investment, your returns in MYR will be higher than the CAGR returns of the index ETF. Question is, past a certain point of weakening, how will it affect job availability in Malaysia and if it does affect, will any of us be one of those that got retrenched. Then you won't have money to pump into the investment anyway to bother. hmm.gif

This post has been edited by RayleighH: Jan 21 2017, 10:22 PM
RayleighH
post Jan 21 2017, 09:36 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 21 2017, 09:30 PM)
For me, I prefer the 3 or 4 fund method. But my SG portfolio (including my S-REITS and UT) will have more than that.  sweat.gif  drool.gif 90% in S&P500 is bad idea cause if something happen to the US, your amount drops by 90%. Wipe out just like that.
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Will the S&P index itself not recover eventually in the long term? How likely is for 500 companies/stocks to go kaput at once? I agree that it is rather risky, but is 500 companies diversified enough/or not? Quite interesting questions to ponder upon actually.
RayleighH
post Jan 21 2017, 09:40 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Jan 21 2017, 09:30 PM)
For me, I prefer the 3 or 4 fund method. But my SG portfolio (including my S-REITS and UT) will have more than that.  sweat.gif  drool.gif 90% in S&P500 is bad idea cause if something happen to the US, your amount drops by 90%. Wipe out just like that.
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Btw, this VXUS - https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/snap...ndId=3369#tab=1 is all world but does not include US. Then again, like I said earlier, their performance is really low at the moment.
RayleighH
post Jan 22 2017, 10:57 AM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Jan 22 2017, 10:08 AM)
there is no fund or currency or broker or method that will give u consistently the highest returns after buying it.

there are risks in ALL of them over time if they are equities - geopolitical, financial, currency, sector, stock specific.

some of the "world" or "international" etf's are so rojak in weightage, geopolitics, currency, taxation that it is difficult to have a handle on them, can't even understand why it is up or down!

in the final analysis, one has to come to a conclusion, take a position on what u think is best and go with it.

.. global equities environment - if u think USA equities will continue to drive world markets higher, go for the largest and most liquid US ETF's. SPY is S&P500; XLF is all US banks/finance; QQQ is all US tech; XLV is all US pharma/healthcare. go one step further... if u think tech will fly even higher, then buy the specifics - Facebook-Apple-Netflix-Google (FANG stocks) or AMZN, MSFT, etc. but if u think US markets will dive soon, it gets difficult becos all other world markets will invariably be affected, incl china, japan, european stocks. at the limit, if u think a world recession/depression is coming, better put all in FD, lock it up!

... currencies - one must have a basis to hold a view what direction the $ or RM or yen or Euro will go relative to each other in the next 1, 2, 5 years before u buy any equity. if u think RM will strengthen, best to buy 100% bursa stuff. if u think RM will go weakest against SGD, buy SG stocks or reits.

.. local or foreign broker - already mentioned.. if small amounts and non frequent trading, use local brokers to save the hassle. if larger amounts with frequent trading, a must to use foreign brokers to have cost efficiency.

i use a combination - CIMB itrade for US/SG mid-longterm holdings/dividends and IB for US trading. it is also impt to consider the fact that if u spread yr funds too thin, there are disadvantages with costs. Whereas if u concentrate yr funds with 1 or 2 brokers, u may get advantages like lower brokerage and/or buying/trading limits. i do not do bursa or other foreign markets, like to stay focused on the few i can monitor all the time.
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Excellent summary. Answered a lot of my inner pondering especially the relationships between different countries economics, relationships between world/international indexes-sector indexes-company stocks, and your personal practices. Domou Arigatou notworthy.gif
RayleighH
post Jan 22 2017, 01:08 PM

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QUOTE(MNet @ Jan 22 2017, 12:39 PM)
Have u invested?
u have asked for so long.
u have been losing opportunity cost.
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I have not invested. I've only asked for a few days only. Then I realized, I actually still lack about MYR5K for the initial USD10K. However, if I look into local or SG brokers, the entry level could be much lower. Still checking out.

I prefer not to rush. Got to make sure I know 90% of what I'm getting into, then only can I sleep well. Else, every night, always doubt this and that.

This post has been edited by RayleighH: Jan 22 2017, 01:12 PM

 

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