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 Property Bubble & Its Social Impact V13, LYN famous DDD Vs UUU Thread

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Showtime747
post Nov 4 2014, 07:26 PM

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V12 half a month already 2500 post
Showtime747
post Nov 4 2014, 09:11 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 4 2014, 08:38 PM)

bearbear, long term average for property in malaysia is in fact always up. History tells you so.

you mean , those newly vp apartments/condos are made of long term holding?
Of course. You mean those apartment/condos are like cars ? doh.gif


QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 4 2014, 08:38 PM)
There are many rich fella who retire on a few properties in hand collecting rental. I have a friend who even hold >100 properties.

no one is denying their existence, same token you should not deny that the large majority are not we are saying around 70% of Malaysian population..

further to that, we currently stop at 400k to 800 bracket, means demand no...

Looks like your aspiration is only to be average. If you intend to be the average joe, then accept that high end property price is beyond reach

High end condo is like branded bags now. It is not for the average


QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 4 2014, 08:38 PM)
You are still young. Haven't seen people thriving on property. All you see day in day out is only bankrupt people. You live in a small gloomy world of your own. Don't be a frog in a well

again how many percent are there? and Important question is does those ppl include you? for all I know even one ahs double of you currently have also also cant buy new generation shop not even half.. if you maximize it and owning shops , means you are under heavy loan

you mention you are playing rental game, beginning wondering what kind of entry you are in
Again, if you aim to be average, you will lose your dream. You should aim to be the top 5%-10%. Then you will see things differently.

You want to know what type of properties I have and how many I have ? Like last time you ask me to show you my "Ccris" ? After I show you 1 of my bank statement you said "sorry" ? tongue.gif

If I show you again, then you will ask me to show you the cars I am driving, the watches I have, the diamonds, the holidays I went to.....? What purpose does that serve even if I showed you all ? tongue.gif

Grow up bearbear. In a forum, it is not how rich you are. It is whether you have a point of not

QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 4 2014, 08:38 PM)
and I think one has to live in the reality and not inflated, properties price today are inflated not normal growth you alleged now that 5-10% bull run has over syndrome...
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bearbear, inflation is a reality. It is you who refuse to live in the reality that the property price is already reach that high. Just like you refuse Wan Tan Mee is already RM5. You still hope Wan Tan Mee will drop price to RM4.

If you keep on dreaming the price will fall down to meet your expectation, you are the one who is living in illusion
Showtime747
post Nov 5 2014, 08:34 AM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Nov 4 2014, 09:31 PM)
Bearbear know the fact price won't come down.

I think he keep denying because his pocket not ready yet for the property he want.

Already blow so bIg now no point to return so the only way out is die die say property price will drop.
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Yalah. If got heart and money to buy first house, won't wait so long one...
Showtime747
post Nov 5 2014, 08:50 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 4 2014, 09:57 PM)
it is speculation, everything which is heavily speculated will need to find it way back to its normal growth, property is one of it nad we live in Malai (just hope you don't forget)
Yes, don't forget we live in malaysia. You also don't forget those developers are businessmen from people in the corridor of power. Why would they break their own rice bowl ?

bearbear you are fighting against UMNO. Don't forget you are living in malaysia


QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 4 2014, 09:57 PM)
think big and dun think average, means heavy debt indeed..you are not within any ultra class neither rich category..
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bearbear, still concern how rich are the UUU here ?

It doesn't matter I am rich who have 1m, 10m, 100m or 1b or not. You still won't agree with me because what I wrote is eye sore to you.

Because if I am right for 2015 (price continue to go up), you will feel very stupid not to buy in 2014 or earlier.

If you are right for 2015 (price start to fall), you will also feel very stupid to buy at almost the peak tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Nov 5 2014, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 03:44 PM)
come on, whoe midfields 2 many owners, you one owners bising, coz based on 600k selling price but hoping 700k price, this is another project with reduced profit compared to others..

like bro showtime say

superbull 30% per annum

example, few years ago he like to use, 300k

so 30% p.a of 300k =90k pa

so 3 years = 90k x 3= 270k (3 years)

so plus 300k +270k = 570k

now superbull run is over, small bull still running (5-10%) pa [according to bro showtime)

so after superbull/speculation, small bull still running

so , after superbull, 570k,

5-10% from 570k = around (30k to 60k ) p.a

so 3 years after superbull  3x (30k to 60k) = 90k to 180k for 3 years

and the list goes on according to them,

so 10 years after 9according to briliant small bun run)

10 x (30k to 60k) = 300k to 600k

(300k to 600k) + 570k (superbull run efect) = 870k to 1.170 million

870k to 1.170 million, doable or not? after 10 years of VP?

few years ago =superbull (30%), this is due to demand
now superbull no more , left with bull ( 5-10%), this is also due to demand
Calculation roughly is correct. But I won't call 5%-10% bull run. I call it inflation.

As you can see, the faster you buy, the cheaper you can get and more profit you can earn. What are you waiting for ?

QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 03:44 PM)
both are motivated by demands, right? so has demand come down? there cannot be anyomore superbull run series after this... question is (even with 5-10% also not sustainable demand)...

got different than few years back or not? of course, demands losing up... mere wish to earn property, this is what trend? UUU? BBB?
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Talking about sub-sale market, market is not motivated by demand only. You have to see supply also. Whether people want to sell lower or hold on and wait for another bull run again. Don't underestimate the holding power of property owner. So, your theory of looking at demand only is flawed
Showtime747
post Nov 5 2014, 05:10 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Nov 5 2014, 03:56 PM)

Bank is not a charity organization, they have shareholders and bnm to report to. Like cc, personal loan and car loan, banks will repossess property as quickly. From npl to foreclosure will take 12 to 18 months, don't expect drastic drop until 2016.
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bearbearwong

Your comrades told you don't buy until at least 2016. Feel stupid to buy in 2015 ? brows.gif
Showtime747
post Nov 5 2014, 05:11 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 04:31 PM)
can some list out married couple which prefer studio and speech like this in LYN?

Krandun -
hmm
hmm
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Personal attack detected....... vmad.gif
Showtime747
post Nov 5 2014, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 04:36 PM)
with losing of demands, means price cannot sustain already, superbull run has ended, now small bull run seems unsustainable also, where is the heading of property direction? since demand is losing? if you apply Jolokia reasoning, just hantam new launch, but sadly even new launch are suffering slow down with good package, subsales how?

no agents dare to comment? how come transaction low price still up?
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bearbear, since you predicted price to come down, your student comrade say price won't come down so soon.

Why you still plan to buy in 2015 ? Feel stupid or not ? tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Nov 5 2014, 07:31 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 05:52 PM)
why do i need to feel stupid, since drastic drop will around the corner, really waiting for drastic drop? you need to service a lot of loans before reaching it..
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Your comrade study economics one leh don't play play. He got Prof Oswald as teacher you know ? Why you say something different from the academics ? Please don't troll. Give us some academic reasons to counter the view put forward by icemanfx. Remember....don't troll arr....
Showtime747
post Nov 5 2014, 07:33 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 06:02 PM)
so it is correct, and now change choice of word, its is now inflation better word... means no more bull run?

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What change of words ? doh.gif Your reading ability is in doubt. Please go for a check up.
Showtime747
post Nov 5 2014, 07:40 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 06:02 PM)
so it is correct, and now change choice of word, its is now inflation better word... means no more bull run? investment cant work anymore? since 5-10% is now inflation, means it is just to counter the shrinking of money.. investment after super bull run stops ? change town? changing bull run to inflation? to save demands? cannot like this very foul & wrong (will be continous reminder after this) bull run theory has evolved into inflation, BBB

if this is the point you wanted to show, property has peak at end of superbull run... so all they are waiting is to cash out... if cant need to service loan already..

bro if is going to profit, you not buying and waiting other ppl to profit meh? you don't fool the property investors, making them to believe holding property is the right course, holding requires cost of holding it, maintenance and etc... longer you hold more cost incurred, units getting old, competition is eating in.. and most importantly, it is profit reducing..

ability to hold to prove a point is not a good investment idea.. this is another time i heard supply is more important than demand... have you heard ppl saying like this before?

where is Jolokia? no flaming you? demand is not dependable buy supplies. so do we have supplies massively in the market then? Amaya? GT208? OUG parklane ( and the whole of old klang road)

pretty obvious, from demand point of view ( as you promoted) and also supplies point of view (with proof)
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bearbear, from what you wrote, I think your understanding of economics is very poor. So, I better don't talk about economics with you. The more you talk about economics, the more confuse you are

Just think something easier to understand by layman. A lot of developers and contractors are UMXO people. Do you think they will let the property market crash ? You forgot about how the last budget disappointed you ?

Government won't let property market crash one lah....
Showtime747
post Nov 5 2014, 07:41 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 07:37 PM)
so 5-10% is never mention by you as bull run is over? and it is now inflation?


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All the while I said so. You interpret differently only doh.gif
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post Nov 5 2014, 07:42 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 07:37 PM)


on the issue of supplies you mention now is the center of gravity.. so are the supplies excessive?


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center of gravity ? When I said that ? bearbear you ok boh.....need take medicine ?
Showtime747
post Nov 5 2014, 07:51 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 07:44 PM)
oh, America was run too by their own ppl, how they have allow property to burst? Lehman bros to wound up? how Argentina country would allow thier country indebt so much, that creditors wanted to wound up Argentina? how did Greece went bancrupt?

how? how not Malaysia allow burst? integrity itself is best to explain their next coming move...
I don't see Obama use sedition act against the Republican in USA tongue.gif

bearbear, malaysia boleh ! Apa pun boleh ! Especially when their pocket is concerned. You are too young for malaysian politics ?


QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 07:44 PM)
so no rebuttals means admission of the above facts... superbull run has ended, coz demand lowering, with demand lowering, the trend of proeprty is no longer suit property investment isn't? where are we heading again?
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Where are we heading again ? I told you already. Back to "normal" 5%-10%

Property is a long term game. There are ups and downs. But over long term, it will be up. History proved that for decades. Don't time the market. Then you will make your returns.

You are too "macro" and confused. You don't know what is your purpose in buying a house. I have said the same thing to you so many times already. You still blur blur tongue.gif
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post Nov 5 2014, 07:58 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 07:50 PM)
if you really think so, there you last integrity you left...

however..

previous years, superbull runs (30%) p.a

so now we do not have a bull run but (rather an inflation) of 5-10%, so superbull no more running? (30%)?

arent demands are the main factor for superbull to run? you getting no where but worse... previous years there are superbull run, then you say bull run of 5-10% increment ( if inflation is of that high of property price) not very long Malaysia will be ghost town). since it is inflation, means no bull run...

no bull run is worse than 5-10% bull run isn't?

previous years (30%) superbull run, demands driven

now, no superbull neither any bulls (0), worsen demands driven

so, still demands going down? right no matter it is inflation or bull run? landed on a worse case.. properties are stagnant.. sure or not?
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I can see a confused bearbear here tongue.gif

You are too hard up to see price to come down to meet your expectation. Until you cannot sit back and think simple logic. Instead you dealt into economics which you have no knowledge

bearbear, come back to basic. Answer these questions

1. Why you buy property ?
2. Can you afford the monthly instalment comfortably ? Ie. if interest rate increase by 5% do you have buffer ? If you lose your job, do you have emergency fund (including instalment payment) for 6 months ?
3. If you already buy a house, and price fall by 50%, will the price fall affect you ? Will you be forced to sell and lose 50% ?
4. If the price increase by 50%, will the price increase affect you ? Will you sell ?

You should think about all these questions instead of going into the Economics of property market doh.gif
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post Nov 5 2014, 08:02 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 07:53 PM)
oh irregardless of what you wanted to term it which you did termed as bull run has end, still a drop in demands haven't we?

I think you guys just justify anything in the name of property investment and price to up.. (when fasts show they do drop and correction and some crashed)
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You too are trying to justify your property market outlook tongue.gif

The difference is.....UUU has been RIGHT for the past 5-6 years. And DDD has been WRONG for the past 5-6 years.
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post Nov 5 2014, 08:09 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 08:00 PM)
freaking irrelavant... to the question post and quoted...

demands dropping, so as price, that y superbull stop running.. easy, you contributed a lot in DDD programme, alwayls hid the meaning inside for us to cracked
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When I point out the obvious, you claim it is irrelevant doh.gif

Ok lah. Let's assume bearbear is 100% right. Your crystal ball say price will fall.

But got 1 problem. Price of property take years to reach bottom. Maybe 3 years like in USA

So your Goodview now RM729k.

2015 VP RM679k <--- bearbear buy
2016 drop to RM629k <--- bearbear feel stupid to buy so early
2017 drop to RM579 <--- bearbear feel even more stupid to buy so early. Could have buy RM150k cheaper tongue.gif

I am giving only 20% price drop. What if 50% drop ? drool.gif
Showtime747
post Nov 5 2014, 08:16 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 08:10 PM)
has demands lowered?
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For you bearbear.....yes ! you are 100% right ! Next year Goodview price fall 50% to RM365k ! As you plan ! All because of demand now lower !

You are a genius in economics. The great law of demand and supply helps bearbear buy his first house at 50% discount thumbup.gif
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post Nov 5 2014, 08:18 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Nov 5 2014, 08:17 PM)
What happened?? Today Wednesday leh...... Also so pressured ah??.......  sweat.gif  sweat.gif
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you notice also ? brows.gif
Showtime747
post Nov 5 2014, 08:24 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Nov 5 2014, 08:16 PM)
u sure our banking system is prudent? this is Malaysia runned by Malai

wow, even those properties are being speculated? and the price are not speculated? then you gotta do back ground check on your peers across the board, they are in fact 65% of your peers who do not have house majority, hear me right.. waiting for help and renting , who are the culprits?
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yaloh yaloh....that max fella simply say one....price sure drop next year by 50%. Because no demand mah. How can price not drop right ?

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