QUOTE(wodenus @ Sep 3 2014, 07:14 AM)
Okay now assume two fund managers, one which is good, and one which is not so good. Fund manager A loses money in a bull run, fund manager B makes money. So it would follow that fund A's value drops in a bull run, and fund B's value goes up.
So now following VCA, you will be throwing more money at fund A and less money at fund B. If everyone does that, the funds which perform the worst, will have the most funding. Does that make sense to you?
Now assume that there's a market downturn, and fund A loses even more money, while fund B, because of superior stock-picking skills, manage to make even more money. The result of this is.. fund B is again punished for being really good, while loser fund B gets even more money. Again, this makes no sense.
The reason va works for individual stocks is that stocks can be overvalued. There's only one counter, and if it becomes overvalued, it becomes overvalued. It is not a fund. A fund has a cash component. Unless it is a passive index fund, it needs more money to chase more prospects.
Suppose I told you this, that I want to make 10k profit only this month. So if you are my sales person, the more money you make for me, the less I am going to pay you. The day you make 10k, I am going to totally stop paying you. And somehow you think this is a good idea.
Your method above hinges only on alpha generated by THE fund manager.
VCA, DCA & other mechanical "no fear / no greed" method is not hinging on THE fund manager but on the logic of buying more (whether units or value) when low, and not buying too much (or even selling/rebalancing) when high.
If U choose to compare that way, might as well compare your method VS asset and sub-asset allocation right?
Different roads to the same goals - gains.
BTW, in reality - looking for THE fund manager(s) to generate superb alphas, how many is there + how much "one is willing to bet on that horse"
VS
using mechanical "no fear / no greed", one just plods along.
Of course, why not marry them both?
eg. 60% mechanical, 40% picking?
just like some folks doing ETF / mutual funds AND stock picking (and/or trading).
Reason: when trading or stock picking - usually one doesn't "sai lang" and go whole hog in. Position sizing is used to control exposure and pontential blow-ups VS potential returns).
Just a thought