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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V8, DDD finally won. Page 42 onwards.

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bcpbeancounter
post Aug 1 2014, 07:28 AM

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QUOTE(kradun @ Aug 1 2014, 01:00 AM)
buying highrise property will have huge price gap depend on the floor level. even same type same direction, lowest and highest floor can have price different of almost 100k.
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Dont pour cold water ok....people just find a ddd.
bearbearwong
post Aug 1 2014, 07:59 AM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Aug 1 2014, 06:51 AM)
Guess u don't know how valuers to value a price..it will always count for the highest and average transacted,and recent lower transaction won't make any difference..
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like that drop means no drop.. last time transacted 700k.. and many transacted 600k... valuer still value 700k..

nvm, Malaysian let the problem hit the face only admit one...

This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Aug 1 2014, 08:04 AM
bearbearwong
post Aug 1 2014, 08:03 AM

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QUOTE(kradun @ Aug 1 2014, 01:00 AM)
buying highrise property will have huge price gap depend on the floor level. even same type same direction, lowest and highest floor can have price different of almost 100k.
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wow man.. you are right... like this there was never a drop lor... price differ is not drop but rather the units facing and etc.. like say also no say

difference almost of 100lk i see.. now i only see average around 570k... 100k almost is 470k.. so if any transaction transacted below 500k should be a drop...

lets set the margin now.. almost 100k.. you guys really champion.. must set it right.. otherwise forever wont be drop.. later got unit transacted below those figure, sure is exceptional or house got ppl die even though still vp..

wybee must be seeing this...
SUSgogo2
post Aug 1 2014, 08:08 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Aug 1 2014, 07:59 AM)
like that drop means no drop.. last time transacted 700k.. and many transacted 600k... valuer still value 700k..

nvm, Malaysian let the problem hit the face only admit one...
*
I have believe that valuer will not value at 700k. Only seller sell at 700k. But bank might value at 600k. So actually current market
high price is actually not market value but seller value which mean buyer won't get 90% of seller price loan due to higher than
market price.

However this seller price will not hold if more sell at 600k.

And when more sell at 500k, everyone follow also unless you don't want to sell now.

I heard many loan cannot get full valuation of seller price. That's why nobody buying now. The whole property market has actually
collapsed.
Tigerr
post Aug 1 2014, 08:53 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jul 31 2014, 10:20 PM)
think have to take showtime747 advice... expecting further drops/ discounts
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There is seller asking sky high price. There is buyer asking low ball buying price. In the end. No deal done. After few years, economy recovered, price keep going up again. Then seller start to reset to even higher price...

so bear bear. What lower price u expecting actually? And ask yourself if u were the original buyer of the green terrain, will u sell at the price u r aiming now? If u yourself will not sell, then it is probably u ll not able to see the price reach that level.

There are many flippers in the market. They wont die if the property cannot sell out upon vp. They ll keep by hook or by crook. Ask yourself, will u do so? Until they really cannot tahan, they may change their life style....and until they really really cannot tahan only can see fire sales but how many of yhem leh.....
SUSgogo2
post Aug 1 2014, 09:00 AM

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QUOTE(Tigerr @ Aug 1 2014, 08:53 AM)
There is seller asking sky high price. There is buyer asking low ball buying price. In the end. No deal done. After few years, economy recovered, price keep going up again. Then seller start to reset to even higher price...

so bear bear. What lower price u expecting actually? And ask yourself if u were the original buyer of the green terrain, will u sell at the price u r aiming now? If u yourself will not sell, then it is probably u ll not able to see the price reach that level.

There are many flippers in the market. They wont die if the property cannot sell out upon vp. They ll keep by hook or by crook. Ask yourself, will u do so? Until they really cannot tahan, they may change their life style....and until they really really cannot tahan only can see fire sales but how many of yhem leh.....
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I think there's a lot of them. Now all kicimiao also grab one during DIBS. Uncle. Aunty. Almost everyone. So I think there's a lot of them that cannot tahan. They think buy property sure win one after VP. They think can straight flip one. Unfortunately due to current property market stagnant, they can't flip.

Price cannot go up if buyer cannot get loan. They want to buy also cannot because cannot get loan.
Jliew168
post Aug 1 2014, 09:25 AM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Aug 1 2014, 09:00 AM)
I think there's a lot of them. Now all kicimiao also grab one during DIBS. Uncle. Aunty. Almost everyone. So I think there's a lot of them that cannot tahan. They think buy property sure win one after VP. They think can straight flip one. Unfortunately due to current property market stagnant, they can't flip.

Price cannot go up if buyer cannot get loan. They want to buy also cannot because cannot get loan.
*
Depend when they bough lo, if they bought last few years and just VP still have very big margin to play since property price increase damm a lots. Even sell lower price still can make money..if they not greedy and accept lower price I don't think they will trap.
The most dangerous 1 is those who greedy and no holding power flipper. Actually more to gambler as they not understand how the market work and simply put a price to sell. This group belong to a not professional flipper.

For professional flipper, I don't think will cause much problem with them because as long as u mean business and know what u doing, u will not put yourself into trap.

The most accurate should see on transacted price but not those market price on iproperty.
party
post Aug 1 2014, 09:25 AM

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QUOTE(Tigerr @ Aug 1 2014, 08:53 AM)
There is seller asking sky high price. There is buyer asking low ball buying price. In the end. No deal done. After few years, economy recovered, price keep going up again. Then seller start to reset to even higher price...

so bear bear. What lower price u expecting actually? And ask yourself if u were the original buyer of the green terrain, will u sell at the price u r aiming now? If u yourself will not sell, then it is probably u ll not able to see the price reach that level.

There are many flippers in the market. They wont die if the property cannot sell out upon vp. They ll keep by hook or by crook. Ask yourself, will u do so? Until they really cannot tahan, they may change their life style....and until they really really cannot tahan only can see fire sales but how many of yhem leh.....
*
I dont know why they keep saying now DDD...my 2 friends work mortgage loans in bank keep hitting target n getting commision 10k++ per mth till low. So they selling what get com? Sell paper house?
Jliew168
post Aug 1 2014, 09:29 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Aug 1 2014, 07:59 AM)
like that drop means no drop.. last time transacted 700k.. and many transacted 600k... valuer still value 700k..

nvm, Malaysian let the problem hit the face only admit one...
*
As long as similar transacted at 700k , valuer should no problem giving u valuation on that particular price..

There is one time before I bought a property much under market but I still need to pay for the market price valuation stamp duty
Tigerr
post Aug 1 2014, 09:30 AM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Aug 1 2014, 09:00 AM)
I think there's a lot of them. Now all kicimiao also grab one during DIBS. Uncle. Aunty. Almost everyone. So I think there's a lot of them that cannot tahan. They think buy property sure win one after VP. They think can straight flip one. Unfortunately due to current property market stagnant, they can't flip.

Price cannot go up if buyer cannot get loan. They want to buy also cannot because cannot get loan.
*
If what u said is true, uncle auntie go in to buy. U really under estimate their power. They may have many cash which can help them last 10 years installment without problem. Afterall, u got to be realistic here n understand how a uncle or an aunty can buy the properties. How is the process?

If a uncle aged 50 wants to buy a condo 500k. How he buy? Go to developer pay 2%(with 8% rebates) n grab it ah??? No need go take loan ah? If that uncle at age 50, u think bank ll buta buta give him 450k loan ah? Sure must have something one. Either the uncle take 50-60% loan n can show bank that he has the ability to pay back installment by showing business incone or fixed deposit with the bank. If bank not comfortable, bank ll not give loan mah. U believe or not? If not, u can go bank ask if u got nothing, see if they ll give u loan or not.

another scenario. The uncle could be buying cash...so upon vp. What's the problem?

Even kicimiao buyer also face same problem. Let's say you earn 1.5k salary. U tell me how u able to buy that 500k properties unless u got big savings or supported by capable people behind u.


Tigerr
post Aug 1 2014, 09:34 AM

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QUOTE(party @ Aug 1 2014, 09:25 AM)
I dont know why they keep saying now DDD...my 2 friends work mortgage loans in bank keep hitting target n getting commision 10k++ per mth till low. So they selling what get com? Sell paper house?
*
Because they hoping for a DDD and their neck is now longer than the zoo negara ziraffe.


Jliew168
post Aug 1 2014, 09:35 AM

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QUOTE(party @ Aug 1 2014, 09:25 AM)
I dont know why they keep saying now DDD...my 2 friends work mortgage loans in bank keep hitting target n getting commision 10k++ per mth till low. So they selling what get com? Sell paper house?
*
When seller asking for unreasonable sky rocket price n now they wiling to adjust slightly lower price I will not assume this is dddd. For me this just more to market correction.

What I heard from my banker is market still moving, they commission much higher now because property price have double compared with few years before even transaction is lesser but the borrowing amount is much higher now.
SUSgogo2
post Aug 1 2014, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(Tigerr @ Aug 1 2014, 09:30 AM)
If what u said is true, uncle auntie go in to buy. U really under estimate their power. They may have many cash which can help them last 10 years installment without problem. Afterall, u got to be realistic here n understand how a uncle or an aunty can buy the properties. How is the process?

If a uncle aged 50 wants to buy a condo 500k. How he buy? Go to developer pay 2%(with 8% rebates) n grab it ah??? No need go take loan ah? If that uncle at age 50, u think bank ll buta buta give him 450k loan ah? Sure must have something one. Either the uncle take 50-60% loan n can show bank that he has the ability to pay back installment by showing business incone or fixed deposit with the bank. If bank not comfortable, bank ll not give loan mah. U believe or not? If not, u can go bank ask if u got nothing, see if they ll give u loan or not.

another scenario. The uncle could be buying cash...so upon vp. What's the problem?

Even kicimiao buyer also face same problem. Let's say you earn 1.5k salary. U tell me how u able to buy that 500k properties unless u got big savings or supported by capable people behind u.
*
Actually I'm not saying that kicimiao that unable to buy house are being given loan by bank. I'm actually saying kicimiao that bank able to give loan based on gross salary up to 70% (I remember last few years, the rules is quite relax). They think they can tide over for 1 year (able to flip in 1 year time). Unfortunately this kicimiao underestimate the property market and now is eating the kicimiao alive. I think cash flow for this type of kicimiao is quite bad.

Another thing is for uncle/aunty, if they pay cash, but cash stuck in property, how to survive? THey think that after VP can earn. But now stuck. Uncle/Aunty suddenly got disease need money leh. So where to get? Need to sell property fast fast lor. You know la, old people many penyakit one la. One of the penyakit is sendiri cari one that is invested in property and now property downturn. icon_question.gif
Tigerr
post Aug 1 2014, 09:38 AM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Aug 1 2014, 09:29 AM)
As long as similar transacted at 700k , valuer should no problem giving u valuation on that particular price..

There is one time before I bought a property much under market but I still need to pay for the market price valuation stamp duty
*
When I bought my 3rd property. I worry I dont have enough cash, so I discuss with the bank branch GM who is my badminton kaki also, I ask if I buy this subsale property at 500k. Can I ask for about 550k bank loan? By marking the valuation to 600k? His answer was no problem. Even 650k valuation also can do. I was shock....laugh.gif,


party
post Aug 1 2014, 09:39 AM

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QUOTE(Tigerr @ Aug 1 2014, 09:34 AM)
Because they hoping for a DDD and their neck is now longer than the zoo negara ziraffe.
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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Aug 1 2014, 09:35 AM)
When seller asking for unreasonable sky rocket price n now they wiling to adjust slightly lower price I will not assume this is dddd. For me this just more to market correction.

What I heard from my banker is market still moving, they commission much higher now because property price have double compared with few years before even transaction is lesser but the borrowing amount is much higher now.
*
I think their definition of DD is that seller asking 700k, bank value 650k...buyer cant buy then nego with seller and finally agree 650k.

Since down 50k from seller asking price so DDD lo..makes sense also.
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post Aug 1 2014, 09:46 AM

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QUOTE(Jliew168 @ Aug 1 2014, 09:35 AM)
When seller asking for unreasonable sky rocket price n now they wiling to adjust slightly lower price I will not assume this is dddd. For me this just more to market correction.

What I heard from my banker is market still moving, they commission much higher now because property price have double compared with few years before even transaction is lesser but the borrowing amount is much higher now.
*
Weird though. I just hear from my banker. Market is not moving. Its Maybank Penang Branch la. Maybe KL property moving but Penang property not moving? hmm.gif

QUOTE(Tigerr @ Aug 1 2014, 09:38 AM)
When I bought my 3rd property. I worry I dont have enough cash, so I discuss with the bank branch GM who is my badminton kaki also, I ask if I buy this subsale property at 500k. Can I ask for about 550k bank loan? By marking the valuation to 600k? His answer was no problem. Even 650k valuation also can do. I was shock....laugh.gif,
*
You're an example. You see you said not enough cash. But still can value higher. But maybe you're very cash rich now. But some people like you might still not enough cash after VP. Bank is very lenient right? For the past years, bank have been lenient. But bank is now very strict lor.
Tigerr
post Aug 1 2014, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Aug 1 2014, 09:38 AM)
Actually I'm not saying that kicimiao that unable to buy house are being given loan by bank. I'm actually saying kicimiao that bank able to give loan based on gross salary up to 70% (I remember last few years, the rules is quite relax). They think they can tide over for 1 year (able to flip in 1 year time). Unfortunately this kicimiao underestimate the property market and now is eating the kicimiao alive. I think cash flow for this type of kicimiao is quite bad.

Another thing is for uncle/aunty, if they pay cash, but cash stuck in property, how to survive? THey think that after VP can earn. But now stuck. Uncle/Aunty suddenly got disease need money leh. So where to get? Need to sell property fast fast lor. You know la, old people many penyakit one la. One of the penyakit is sendiri cari one that is invested in property and now property downturn.  icon_question.gif
*
That is a general assumption on old people after buying property no more money left n many penyakit. You may be right but u got to be realistic, how many of them? U got real data to prove? Can I say your parents also full of penyakit n now every month needs lots of money? Not necessary right???

U go out n see your self how many this type of uncle aunty really usee up their coffin money buy property to flip...

kicikmiow flippers if one year ago buying into property stretch up to 70% LTV. Today some if them may have higher income. Their property can go for rental play even though cannot cover installment but at least cover the loan interest or partially. Change their life style is easier than force them to sell the property n get into financial trouble as selling low n still need to pay bank the difference.

Moreover, some still can thick face go ask help from parents ti tide them thru few years. Their life style could be affected n we malaysians will be forced back to live like the olden days. Bersusah susah dulu, bersenang senang kemudian. May be 5 years down the road, they ll feel lucky that they had bought that properties. Those who now sit n laugh at them may fall into the category of bersenang senang dulu, bersakit sakit kemudian. tongue.gif
party
post Aug 1 2014, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Aug 1 2014, 09:46 AM)
Weird though. I just hear from my banker. Market is not moving. Its Maybank Penang Branch la. Maybe KL property moving but Penang property not moving?  hmm.gif
You're an example. You see you said not enough cash. But still can value higher. But maybe you're very cash rich now. But some people like you might still not enough cash after VP. Bank is very lenient right? For the past years, bank have been lenient. But bank is now very strict lor.
*
Thats why they wont be property burst.

Each state property market situation is different. Not sure about penang...but kl still moving actively. Ipoh is on the rise too.
Jliew168
post Aug 1 2014, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(Tigerr @ Aug 1 2014, 09:38 AM)
When I bought my 3rd property. I worry I dont have enough cash, so I discuss with the bank branch GM who is my badminton kaki also, I ask if I buy this subsale property at 500k. Can I ask for about 550k bank loan? By marking the valuation to 600k? His answer was no problem. Even 650k valuation also can do. I was shock....laugh.gif,
*
Hahah actually before bank negara implement LTV 70% for third property I have a lots of trick getting a full loan or even extra cash when I bought property.

One trick I don't mind share here and this is perfectly legal. For some reason I got offered a property 20% below bank value. If follow the normal procedure I only get 90% on the spa price or bank value whichever lower. What I do last time is pay off the property by cash using my OD then I refinance my property. Since I refinance , I will get 90% on bank value instead of spa price. So end up I bought the property with no money down and have extra cash in my pocket. After 3 years I sold the property with extra 180k in my pocket with no down payment and some extra in my account tongue.gif
This just one of many way in making money with property which I gladly share
SUSgogo2
post Aug 1 2014, 09:52 AM

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QUOTE(Tigerr @ Aug 1 2014, 09:48 AM)
That is a general assumption on old people after buying property no more money left n many penyakit. You may be right but u got to be realistic, how many of them? U got real data to prove? Can I say your parents also full of penyakit n now every month needs lots of money? Not necessary right???

U go out n see your self how many this type of uncle aunty really usee up their coffin money buy property to flip...

kicikmiow flippers if one year ago buying into property stretch up to 70% LTV. Today some if them may have higher income. Their property can go for rental play even though cannot cover installment but at least cover the loan interest or partially. Change their life style is easier than force them to sell the property n get into financial trouble as selling low n still need to pay bank the difference.

Moreover, some still can thick face go ask help from parents ti tide them thru few years. Their life style could be affected n we malaysians will be forced back to live like the olden days. Bersusah susah dulu, bersenang senang kemudian. May be 5 years down the road, they ll feel lucky that they had bought that properties. Those who now sit n laugh at them may fall into the category of bersenang senang dulu, bersakit sakit kemudian. tongue.gif
*
I think we all don't have statistic. We can only assume. Hahaha..

Its true. If we're in trouble, probably we will just ask our parent to tide us over.

Oh, rental play cannot already la. Nowaday property unable to rent out due to oversupply.

Actually if this property downturn last only 1 year, then its ok lor. Can still tide over.

If this property downturn last for 3 years, I think maybe a bit hard. What do you think?

(erm, just in case people are wondering, we're actually in property downturn cycle (cool cycle). Just go out and see. Property downturn does not mean bubble burst. It could be bubble deflating).

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