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 Are you guys ready for hike in interest rate?, Interest rate rising in July & September

Are you guys ready?
 
Yes, my loan percentage is low compared to my earning. [ 124 ] ** [63.59%]
No. (Explain why no?) [ 71 ] ** [36.41%]
Total Votes: 195
  
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cherroy
post Jul 8 2014, 11:09 AM

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QUOTE(lucifah @ Jul 8 2014, 10:06 AM)
25 point increase

let's translate int dollar and cents

if ayam servicing a loan of rm 1,000 per month previosuly

would a 25 point increase means i'll have to pay RM 1,002.50 instead?
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QUOTE(lucifah @ Jul 8 2014, 11:00 AM)
so how to calculate ah the loan if increase by 25 points the BLR?
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Not calculated like that.

Loan interest is calculated daily.
if you have outstanding loan let say 250k, it will x the new BLR (if) with daily calculation.

There are 2 situation can occur,
1. Monthly loan repayment increases based on calculation of the whole tenure of the loan vs its interest rate.
Aka previous if BLR 6.6% enable to repay off the 25 year loan with 1000 monthly, with the new increased rate, it become 10xx.

2. Monthly repayment still stay the same, 1000, but to finish off the loan take more than 25 years.


cherroy
post Jul 8 2014, 11:13 AM

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QUOTE(felixmask @ Jul 8 2014, 09:21 AM)
WILL new BLR framework will be announce on 2 Jan 2015,

It juz 6 month on the road.
Juz mine curiosity will BNM Spike the OPR interest on 10 July...another 2 Jan 2015.

Except BNM dont want 2 Jan 2015 having major hike in OPR...then gradually increase 10 July....

A playing game mind by BNM
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My view, unlikely BNM want to move the rate prior before GST implementation.

It may be one off 0.25% increase then no move until the GST implemented, as there are plenty of uncertainty factors
with GST implementation with potential one off inflation due to GST, and economy slowdown due to GST as well.


cherroy
post Jul 8 2014, 11:36 AM

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QUOTE(cfa28 @ Jul 8 2014, 11:27 AM)
there could be 1-more rate hike just before or right after GST

Its not whether we are ready or not

Not ready also no choice - have to accept it

Just hope for reduction in Personal Income Tax
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Yes, could be, but I still think BNM will see the impact of first hike before moving to another hike.

They want to see the debt being controlled, not to kill the economy.
cherroy
post Jul 8 2014, 01:59 PM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Jul 8 2014, 12:42 PM)
if 25 is 0.25, that's a huge rise. My happiness buying property is now become sad because you said 25 basis point is 0.25. Are you sure???  shocking.gif
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25 basic point is 0.25%.

100 basic point is 1%, this is jargon using in banking/finance section.
cherroy
post Jul 8 2014, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE(prody @ Jul 8 2014, 02:01 PM)
That should be basis points.  smile.gif
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Ty for the correction. smile.gif
cherroy
post Jul 8 2014, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(gogo2 @ Jul 8 2014, 02:30 PM)
Thanks for the info. Now I think 25 basis point is quite significance. 
From the news, source said hike 2 time.

But I think probably just hike 1 time.
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Those (hike 2 times news) are expectation made by analysts, it doesn't come from BNM who is holding the card.
So (2 times rate hike) is still not a baked in issue.

Last year already some analysts made prediction BNM going to hike rate even before 2014 started... whistling.gif

Current inflation is more about push cost factor, which rising interest rate won't able to "cure" such inflation.
So a push cost inflation won't be tamed by the rate hike.

Petrol price won't drop/stop rising just because interest rate being raised 3%, or 10%,

Since 1997, we have not seen OPR more than 3.5% (if not mistaken), already 17 years at around +/-3%.

25 basis point hike surely got some impact, but it is not like the end of the world or some scary beast that come from nowhere.

10 years ago, if bought a property with loan generally come with BLR + 0~1 %
Now home loan with BLR -2%,

So, even with the rate hike of 0.5%, current loan borrower still "enjoy" way cheaper rate than previous borrower.
cherroy
post Jul 8 2014, 04:30 PM

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QUOTE(yeelong @ Jul 8 2014, 04:21 PM)
sometimes bank no bother by the old loan installment when then can absorb the increment of interest as they can earn back from other investment. Coz they know customer will jump if increase of interest while their competitor staying put.
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Home loan interest rate out there either quoted in BLR +/- or Klibor + x%.

When BNM raised the OPR, it will affect the BLR and Klibor.

There is no such thing of old loan doesn't affected by rate changing unless the loan is fixed rate in the first place.

Bank doesn't bother to adjust the monthly repayment, doesn't mean one is not affected by higher rate, bank charge the interest rate based on your home loan stated rate, which is either BLR +/- or Klibor, which means instead of finish the loan at 25 years, it needs more time to clear up the loan due to higher rate.

Look at your statement of home loan sent which stated clearly the outstanding amount, interest charge etc.


cherroy
post Jul 9 2014, 02:25 PM

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QUOTE(lucifah @ Jul 9 2014, 08:45 AM)
thestar reported it may likley be tomorrow:

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...mal-impact.aspx
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OPR generally being revised after scheduled BNM meeting, which is July 10 for this month.


cherroy
post Jul 11 2014, 11:00 AM

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QUOTE(JustNobody @ Jul 11 2014, 08:52 AM)
Now home purchaser waiting for bank to revise the new discount, OPR up 0.25, discount may be up 0.2, end up actual up is 0.05. Heard a lot of investor will start requesting bank for revise their loan rate and also looking for refinance to get better rate. So, end up I would see not much effect to property.

I may be wrong, but seeing bank gave -2, -2.2, -2.45... So, it seems like also keep increase to counter back the OPR raise LOL..
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You see BLR -2%, -2.4%, is because of excess liquidity in the financial market, due to QE, and loosely monetory policy generally.
With Fed tapering and end of loosely monetory policy, the negative figure won't go deeper, but normalise to norm, instead go to -3%.

Another reason it becomes -2%, -2.4%, simply because BLR has basically stop working as its function as benchmark for bank borrowing cost.
Borrowing cost of bank is basically based on 3 months Klibor, that's why a new framework of loan rate is proposed by BNM, and many banks start with home loan based on Klibor rate.

When OPR revised upwards, so does the klibor generally.

So with the revised OPR upwards, there will be increased in borrowing cost generally.
BNM is aiming to reduce the pace of household debt rising, so it is not an interest for BNM to see banks keep on lending at cheap that's why we see OPR being raised.

cherroy
post Jul 11 2014, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jul 11 2014, 10:48 AM)
hardly to say... because in coming years there are large population born in year dragon n going to turn 30 in 2018. many will settle down for a house in 2017/2018. i think many call prop guru also base on this statistic... that is y they dare to say boom boOm... n years 2015/1016 will be up or at least stagnant, dun expect will down.
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Property up and down is largely due to economy situation,
If the economy is in recession, no matter how much the population born also no use, no money to buy during recession, property price cannot rise even you have 10 billion of population.
cherroy
post Jul 11 2014, 11:17 AM

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QUOTE(sampool @ Jul 11 2014, 11:04 AM)
that mean now our economy is goOd?  wink.gif
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GDP growth 6%, export registered double figure increase, property price rising at fast pace, how the economy is not good?

cherroy
post Jul 12 2014, 01:16 PM

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QUOTE(InF.anime @ Jul 12 2014, 12:46 PM)
So hosehold debt= 86.8% means what ?
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Household debt 86.8% means the total loan taken by household is 86.8% to the GDP number.

GDP is the total output of the economy.

It doesn't directly mean 86.8% of household income goes to pay the loan.

For eg.
The total output of Malaysia economy is 1 trillion pa.
The total debt in the banking system taken by household (home loan, car loan, credit card loan, personal loan) etc,
is 868 billion.

You don't pay off the debt 868 billion in 1 year straight away, right?

868 billion of loan, you need to stripe it out how much the monthly repayment figure, as well as derive the household income, before can conclude a household currently how much their monthly income need to commit to service the loan.
But a higher ratio of household debt indicator high commitment ratio to their income.

Household loan ratio to GDP is a good indicator the economy system is highly leverage or not.

As how much the income can be made by household or individual is dictated by how much your economy output is.
Once the debt exceed what your output (GDP)/income can be for the whole year, already indicated the household is highly geared, but it doesn't mean it must turn into NPL in the future (but it does indicated high risk to be), as plenty of factors are affecting the future outcome, from interest rate, inflation as well as economy growth that potential normalise it back.
cherroy
post Jul 13 2014, 11:15 AM

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This is not a U/D topic,
Please head to the UUU/DDD topic for kopitiam talk. Ty
https://forum.lowyat.net/topic/3259380/+1640

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