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 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market V6, Signs are already there in Malaysia

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Fazab
post May 4 2014, 08:02 PM

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QUOTE(zuiko407 @ May 4 2014, 07:23 PM)
Ya, plenty of flat in subsale market, DDD should consider this type of property instead of waiting
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Waiting here also. To buy one more prop.

But not because not enough money.

Because not wanting to pay for overvalue prop.

This is my opinion and choice. Nobody has to agree or follow. Dun shoot me.
Fazab
post May 16 2014, 08:42 AM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ May 16 2014, 06:41 AM)
I used to think like you. But I was dead wrong  doh.gif

2007-08 USA Sub-prime crisis - the whole world were affected because the US not only sneezed, they got cancer !! Malaysia can't be spared surely. Bubble sure pop this time

2008 - Iceland financial crisis, the beginning of Euro crisis. Whole of Europe very much affected - Europe has sneezed, surely Malaysia will be catch flu. Bubble sure pop this time

2009-2012 Euro crisis. Now it is time Euro got cancer. With USA still in ICU, Malaysia sure die. True enough, Ireland, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, one by one got cancer. And their economy collapsed some even considered bankrupt. They suffered until these days. How can malaysia escape ? Our economy sure kena kaw kaw. Bubble sure pop this time

2013 - Fed's talk about tapering. The whole world panic !! This time sure is "THIS IS IT !!". And SEE !! In October the first tapering started, many countries' currency affected. India, Indo, South Africa, Australia, Brazil, Russia, China and Malaysia. Come liao....finally come liao....Bubble sure pop this time

2014 - currencies stabilised. USA recovers. Euro recovers. Now its China's turn to have crisis. Bubble sure pop this time 
In all of the world crisis malaysia experienced, we faced high winds and tidal waves. Every time new crisis hit the world, I was thinking "THIS IS IT !!" or "BEGINNING OF THE END", or "GROUND ZERO OF WORLD ECONOMIC COLLAPSE". But every time since 2007, nothing much happened to us. But every time, "bubble sure pop this time" will come to mind

When you are a doomsayer, you will always be a doomsayer. Whatever you see and hear, your thoughts will relate it to crisis. And every time these doomsayer misses the boat, yet again
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At every turn, 'crisis' was prevented by the use of unsound, and some would say dangerous 'creative' economic and fiscal policies.

To use an extreme word, the whole world is lying, and we help each other to lie.
The money that is supporting all this buying is really not there.

As long as we can sustain the lie, all is fine.
Fazab
post May 19 2014, 10:23 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ May 19 2014, 06:28 PM)
Disagree. Bank is very clever, both long or short term

They give 10x for property financing because the risk of property price going down more than 10% is low. Furthermore, houses are necessity. Even if the price is reduced >10%, people still need a roof over their head. So house owner will still service their installment irregardless of the house price. As long as they have a job and continue to make monthly payments, banks are happy earning interest even though house price drop 30%

Whereas for share margin financing, the fact that they only give 3x is because they knew price fluctuation could reach 1/3 in a short time. Thus the risk is higher. Share is pure investment not a basic necessity. When the value starts to drop approaching 1/3, the bank will exercise their margin call. If you cant top up, they will exercise their rights to liquidate your holdings and mitigate the bank's risk. You take the hit. There is no such monthly installment stretch over 35 years in margin financing.

We can also see the different risk profile from the way bank charges interest. Property loan is way cheaper suggesting they see property as safer sector

Either property or share margin financing, banks are less likely to suffer compare to borrower, hence i said they are not stupid. Maybe i should say they are at least more clever than students ?  tongue.gif
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Banks are definitely cleverer. Clever to know that they are too big to fail.

No matter how they mess up, govt and BNM etc will have to come in and pull them out.
Otherwise whole economy stuck.

That why they can gamble with our money. They make obscene amounts of money, we bear the risk.
The way they handle risk is - download it to someone else. Risk is not a problem to them.
So many examples everywhere.
Almost every countries that is in deep shit is due to house price collapse. The big banks still laughing.
Fazab
post May 28 2014, 11:18 AM

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Economist look at the big picture, use comprehensive data. Their opinion is usually quite accurate, like you said, for one whole country and is generally valid for long term.
Street smart investor look at local data, gauge by their gut feelings, and if lucky can make a killing during certain period. Their data is limited to what they see and feel.

just like genting. The casino will always win. They have done the calculations and know how to beat you at the game.
Some lucky people will also win. And they think everybody can win and they can win all the time.
But majority will burn their fingers, because the odds are simply against them.

That is the essence of a crisis. Too many people hoping to win, when in reality, only a few can win.

How to be a winner? Become a developer.
The developers are the ones who will always win, at every cycle.

Anybody who thinks Malaysia is different, needs to have a quick lesson in financial crisis history.
Fazab
post May 29 2014, 12:58 PM

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QUOTE(Anon_1986 @ May 29 2014, 12:22 PM)
1997 wasn't a mortgage debt issue, it was a corporate debt issue. Property fallout was just a side effect of a generalised recession. Nobody could afford to buy when mortgage rates were at 12%.

Now Thailand had a property bubble back then, albeit largely corporate,  not household debt, and that bubble was what started off the afc.

Currently we having a mortgage debt issue centralised around record household debt which is why 1997 is not a comparable situation
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Dunno the fine points, but I see same things happening -

everybody rushing to buy prop
every prop, no matter where and what type sold out in half a day
everybody borrow more than they can afford just to buy
auntie uncle all take out life savings to buy prop
every kind of businessman suddenly want to develop props
everybody think once VP can sell at twice the price
to get a form to buy prop you need to pay undercounter
bigshots sapu 10 units somehow and then sell you the booking with extra commission etc etc

Very very deja vu

I still remember how sad my wife looked when I told her we probably can't afford to buy a decent landed house at that time.
Then the crisis came, and we found dead chicken everywhere

Doesn't matter what is the underlying cause - the pain comes when people are overborrowing easy money to gamble.
When the actions are same, the symptoms will be the same.
Fazab
post Jun 10 2014, 11:25 PM

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QUOTE(kokwah18 @ Jun 10 2014, 10:19 PM)
Forget about bubble. Our property is still damn damn cheap comparing to HK or SG. Vision 2020 is developed country, do u still think property will go down - with gst implementation and subsidy - petrol removal? You must be kidding if property going down.
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I still think we are in a bubble. And it will break, if not burst. Given time.

Not that I want it to happen. I will like the party to go on all nite long. But morning will still come, whatever we like.
And the cycle starts again.

Not that I hope price will go down to before 2008 (but not impossible). But belip now is not good time to buy unless desperate for own stay.

Been there, seen it, three times in my life.



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