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 Bursa Trader V4

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jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 04:13 PM

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QUOTE(tstan8_8 @ Apr 15 2014, 04:08 PM)
reminder say 3484. Any idea?
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Last 2 Q not looking good
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 04:14 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Apr 15 2014, 04:13 PM)
what can do, boon disappointed to teach me liao. I always go for KFC  cry.gif
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Your dream may come true .... Lau sai already 2.75
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 04:43 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 15 2014, 04:39 PM)
Lau sai like that still PE 22x.. keng.  thumbup.gif

how over value the share is at the first place.  rolleyes.gif

DSonic based on FY14 PE 15 x .. FV RM 2...  brows.gif

That one IF can continue to maintain the profitability...  tongue.gif
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Wait next Q and see. If can deliver 10% better than last Q, then will fly again brows.gif
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 04:46 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 15 2014, 04:44 PM)
I think PE 15x already account for the growth already.... tongue.gif
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hmm.gif

So you're suggesting it will be a free fall to 2.x from now?
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 04:48 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 15 2014, 04:44 PM)
I think PE 15x already account for the growth already.... tongue.gif

If stagnant growth or u-turn then PE 10x.. FV RM 1.40 ...  whistling.gif
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Which other co. are u using as benchmark for your FV?
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 15 2014, 04:48 PM)
Stock price NOT EQUAL to FV one .. can undershoot or overshoot one... whistling.gif
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This is true, but if a stock is overvalued, it tends to move towards FV, likewise, undervalued stock tends to move up towards FV. So FV is the closest benchmark
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 04:54 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 15 2014, 04:53 PM)
Me again? doh.gif

Sometimes stocks are like rubber band.....

If you pull it too much at one direction it will break one...

once broken.....

no need to talk FV or what not jor....

if still do not understand...

once broken.... stay the hell out.

laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif  laugh.gif
don't die a hero.
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Haha, like I said, you're the grandmaster liao.

Everything must quote u notworthy.gif
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 15 2014, 04:52 PM)
No need other co.. just look at the earnings report only...
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Just wondering what are the models you use to calculate FV.

Back in uni days, we were taught cash flow discounting. Uncle google says PE and forward PE hmm.gif
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 04:56 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Apr 15 2014, 04:54 PM)
if FV wrong leh ?  laugh.gif
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Quote gark .... Heart must be steady brows.gif
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 04:57 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Apr 15 2014, 04:53 PM)
China shares drop over 1% as banks hit by weak data

BEIJING: China shares fell sharply on Tuesday as the banking sector took a beating after data showed the country's money supply grew at its slowest pace in more than a decade.

The Shanghai Composite Index ended down 1.4 percent at 2,101.60 points. The CSI300 of the leading Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listings lost 1.7 percent.

The CSI300 banking subindex fell 2.3 percent after statistics showed China's money supply grew at its weakest pace since 2001 and loan growth slowed in March.

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...t-by-weak-data/
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Don't worry. China can keep printing RMB as well brows.gif

Keep injecting funds into banks
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 04:59 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 15 2014, 04:57 PM)
The human mind is strange at times....

when the stock moves up... people scared it fall.
when the stock moves down.... people scared they miss out if the stock U-turn and rise back.

why?

whistling.gif
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Fear and greed brows.gif
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 05:03 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Apr 15 2014, 05:02 PM)
From what I read, DCFA is best for mature companies. Growth companies need cash for re-investment, so cash flow fluctuates.

For REIT, net rental income...
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thumbup.gif Thanks
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 05:04 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 15 2014, 05:03 PM)
The NPL they let you see is just the tip of the ice berg... a lot of NPL is off the books one in china.. like lehman minibonds where the FFF risk is re-packaged into a AAA investment.

Already got a few of these 'investment grade' default, but still the government cover up... the rest when want burst only.  laugh.gif
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If burst, then really no eye see. Msia property market will burst too
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 15 2014, 05:08 PM)
Msia property market burst... construction supply business can chap lap already.. jonchai no work de...

Better don't wish for that.  sweat.gif
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It's a telltale sign. In fact, we expected that to happen last year. It didn't. But it should in the next 2 years. Property market, as usual, booms and busts.
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 06:15 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 15 2014, 05:21 PM)
Indonesia property counters has on average dropped >60% since last August..  whistling.gif

Now mostly selling for 50%-70% discount to BV...

Dare to buy?  brows.gif
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No guts to venture out of MY yet wink.gif
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 06:17 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 15 2014, 05:16 PM)
Property market or property index?

Super bull index = scary?

user posted image

Or not.... ?

Just a zoom out of the same picture.....

user posted image
rolleyes.gif  One

rolleyes.gif  Two

rolleyes.gif Three
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Well, I was referring to the prices of property in general
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 06:28 PM

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QUOTE(andrekua2 @ Apr 15 2014, 06:23 PM)
Cannot be lah... international trader

What project also you get wind liao. Sure win.
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I wish. By the time I get the wind, it's all public news. We're not project contractors. We're only suppliers. Rarely do we get first hand news. sad.gif
jonchai
post Apr 15 2014, 09:39 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 15 2014, 09:21 PM)
The other day... stock looked like this.....

user posted image

today....

user posted image

things have really changed hor.....

so you Q lower at 2.00....
maybe you can get....

but have you think what will happen when you get it?

Imagine the second chart...
extend out some more long black candles.... down towards 2.00.....

now imagine how the chart look....

Can you imagine how ugly and how broken the chart is already?
Another thing....
when it falls so low....
think of the other implications....

those that got caught in this 'sudden collapse'...
can you imagine how they feel about the stock?

and then .... how many would still dare touch it anymore if it hits 2.00?
it's like after seeing ghost, sure scared of dark, right?

and then you will have a bunch of stale bulls stuck in the stock...

not ideal.....

This reminds me now so much of Amedia crash the last time........... sweat.gif
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hmm.gif hmm.gif

Yea, you gave me something to think about. It's just that from FA point of view, around RM2 is the FV, that's why I thought of holding at 2 for a few months and see. But anyway, waiting for their next quarter report
jonchai
post Apr 16 2014, 04:32 AM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 15 2014, 10:01 PM)
Knowing FA is important.

However, there are situations.
Remember, any stocks can be goreng.
FA stock, No FA stock, Chap Lap stock.... anything.
All you need is the wok, the oil and the Chef. tongue.gif

When a FA is fried sky high and fall....
trust me....
people will see the stock as 'sick'.....
and it will take many years ....
before anyone will dare touch the stock again...

this is just normal mindset....
fall from 4.80++ wo....
see ghost jor wor..
no scared dark meh?

tongue.gif
there are so many other stocks out there Leng Chai...
don't ever get too stuck on one stock.
open your mind...... smile.gif
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Okay. Good lesson thumbup.gif notworthy.gif
jonchai
post Apr 16 2014, 10:22 AM

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Hmm ... CIMB itrade has been rather unresponsive these days.

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