QUOTE(gark @ Apr 16 2014, 10:12 AM)
Gark, what is the easiest way to calculate fair value for a stock?Bursa Trader V4
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Apr 16 2014, 10:35 AM
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Apr 16 2014, 10:37 AM
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Usually i will politely ask ask gark to help calculate for me... but today, feel paiseh,
so ask what is easiest way instead This post has been edited by lambethwalk: Apr 16 2014, 10:41 AM |
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Apr 16 2014, 10:41 AM
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Apr 16 2014, 10:45 AM
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Apr 16 2014, 10:52 AM
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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 16 2014, 10:46 AM) This one ah.... Tq tq, ... jot down already. There are many ways to calculate fair value one, it is more of an art than science... so it depends on each individual expectation of the stock growth. The most basic will be PE.. BUT it has a lot of limitations...My back of the envelope (ie. fast method) FV calculation will be... FVPE = (5 Year FUTURE Growth% + DY% p.a.)*100 FV = FVPE x TTM Example : Stock A, you expect it to have growth of 10% p.a. and currently yield 3%. TTM EPS is 20 cents/share FVPE =(10%+3%)*100 = 13 FV = 0.20 x 13 = RM 2.6 Please note this is just the fast method, if it looks interesting to you, you NEED to investigate further on the free cash flow, net cash/debt, profit margin, growth sustainability, RNAV, DCF, management etc etc... There is NO sure way of calculating FV one... if you put super high growth expectations, everything will also look very cheap, so be very very conservative. Again I repeat, getting FV is an ART not a calculable SCIENCE because the market, company and profits change all the time... and more often than not you will wrong MOST of the time. What is TTM? This post has been edited by lambethwalk: Apr 16 2014, 10:56 AM |
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Apr 16 2014, 10:56 AM
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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 16 2014, 10:54 AM) TTM = tentative twelve month OR past 4Q earning combined Okay... I have edited my original post sometimes it is better to use next FY expected EPS for calculation if you can reliably predict one. I use TTM and FY14 EPS interchangeable depends on stock. And how do you calculate/estimate future growth percentage? hehe my last question |
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Apr 16 2014, 10:58 AM
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Apr 16 2014, 11:01 AM
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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 16 2014, 10:58 AM) There are few methods... Yes sir! For constant growth and stable growth company.. you can use the average of 5 or 10 years CAGR (Compounded annual growth rate) For high growth companies, well, you just gotta read more and get a feel on the industry and where it is headed... this one is the most difficult, you need in depth understanding on the industry For negative/unstable/yo-yo growth companies, don't bother - run far far away... thanks gark |
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Apr 16 2014, 11:04 AM
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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 16 2014, 11:01 AM) Ya estimating growth is the key, you need to know the demand/supply of the product/service of the company and also advantage of the company securing market share. All these you got to know the industry in deoth. Good god.. mother of gods! For example, last time i bought NTPM... i went to a few supermarket to see the products they sell, including the new diaper & female towel brand and compare their pricing/packaging to other competitor. |
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Apr 16 2014, 11:09 AM
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Very very hardworking you guys... tabik, really tabik..
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Apr 16 2014, 11:12 AM
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Apr 16 2014, 11:21 AM
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Apr 16 2014, 12:35 PM
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Apr 16 2014, 12:54 PM
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Apr 16 2014, 02:10 PM
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Apr 16 2014, 02:14 PM
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Apr 16 2014, 05:50 PM
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Homer forming base...
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Apr 16 2014, 05:55 PM
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Apr 17 2014, 10:59 AM
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Kicking, kicking
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Apr 17 2014, 11:54 AM
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My form base comment yesterday, veli the accurate
This post has been edited by lambethwalk: Apr 17 2014, 11:54 AM |
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