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 Bursa Trader V4

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lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 10:35 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 16 2014, 10:12 AM)
Not 'ham sap' accountant meh?  hmm.gif
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Gark, what is the easiest way to calculate fair value for a stock?
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 10:37 AM

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Usually i will politely ask ask gark to help calculate for me... but today, feel paiseh, tongue.gif hahaha...
so ask what is easiest way instead tongue.gif


This post has been edited by lambethwalk: Apr 16 2014, 10:41 AM
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 10:41 AM

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QUOTE(jonchai @ Apr 16 2014, 10:40 AM)
I believe he has a huge Excel sheet with all the formulas and variables, ready to plug and play. Now, the easiest way is to hack his PC  brows.gif
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WANT TO BUY THAT EXCEL SHEET!!! icon_rolleyes.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 10:45 AM

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QUOTE(jonchai @ Apr 16 2014, 10:42 AM)
Better to hire a hacker  brows.gif
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Must be ethical wan... flex.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 16 2014, 10:46 AM)
This one ah....  sweat.gif 

There are many ways to calculate fair value one, it is more of an art than science... so it depends on each individual expectation of the stock growth.

The most basic will be PE.. BUT it has a lot of limitations...My back of the envelope (ie. fast method) FV calculation will be... rolleyes.gif

FVPE = (5 Year FUTURE Growth% + DY% p.a.)*100
FV = FVPE x TTM

Example : Stock A, you expect it to have growth of 10% p.a. and currently yield 3%. TTM EPS is 20 cents/share

FVPE =(10%+3%)*100 = 13
FV = 0.20 x 13 = RM 2.6

Please note this is just the fast method, if it looks interesting to you, you NEED to investigate further on the free cash flow, net cash/debt, profit margin, growth sustainability, RNAV, DCF, management etc etc...

There is NO sure way of calculating FV one... if you put super high growth expectations, everything will also look very cheap, so be very very conservative.  sweat.gif

Again I repeat, getting FV is an ART not a calculable SCIENCE because the market, company and profits change all the time... and more often than not you will wrong MOST of the time.  wink.gif
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Tq tq, ... jot down already.

What is TTM? sweat.gif



This post has been edited by lambethwalk: Apr 16 2014, 10:56 AM
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 10:56 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 16 2014, 10:54 AM)
TTM = tentative twelve month OR past 4Q earning combined

I have edited my original post sometimes it is better to use next FY expected EPS for calculation if you can reliably predict one. I use TTM and FY14 EPS interchangeable depends on stock.
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Okay...

And how do you calculate/estimate future growth percentage? hehe my last question sweat.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 10:58 AM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Apr 16 2014, 10:57 AM)
But one thing I have to add....whenever calculate Intrinsic value, the most important part is understand the business enough 1st before you can do so. So you can have the confidence to believe your IV.

Just my opinion  biggrin.gif
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Nice one smile.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 11:01 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 16 2014, 10:58 AM)
There are few methods...

For constant growth and stable growth company.. you can use the average of 5 or 10 years CAGR (Compounded annual growth rate)

For high growth companies, well, you just gotta read more and get a feel on the industry and where it is headed... this one is the most difficult, you need in depth understanding on the industry

For negative/unstable/yo-yo growth companies, don't bother - run far far away...  wink.gif
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Yes sir! nod.gif

thanks gark rolleyes.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 11:04 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 16 2014, 11:01 AM)
Ya estimating growth is the key, you need to know the demand/supply of the product/service of the company and also advantage of the company securing market share. All these you got to know the industry in deoth.

For example, last time i bought NTPM... i went to  a few supermarket to see the products they sell, including the new diaper & female towel brand and compare their pricing/packaging to other competitor.  sweat.gif[U]
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Good god.. mother of gods! rclxub.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 11:09 AM

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Very very hardworking you guys... tabik, really tabik..


lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 11:12 AM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Apr 16 2014, 11:11 AM)
Visit visit also good  blush.gif
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Ask gark sponsor us airplane tickets, go visit indo plantations??? laugh.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 11:21 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 16 2014, 11:17 AM)
Help me push Scientex? tongue.gif
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You share here in lowyat your TP la, FV la, growth la for it..

Then maybe some fansi of yours will buy in loads laugh.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(foofoosasa @ Apr 16 2014, 12:09 PM)
Tease me again  cry.gif

learn to respect KFC trader  vmad.gif
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I greatly support KFC traders icon_rolleyes.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 12:54 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 16 2014, 12:39 PM)
Texas Fried Chicken lousy meh?
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oops, kena spotted by grandmaster boon

must run away... ph34r.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 02:10 PM

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QUOTE(jonchai @ Apr 16 2014, 02:05 PM)
Haha kidding only  brows.gif

Thinking whether to top up 0099 ... Got some wind but can't verify  brows.gif
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Tell mah earlier... run up so much liao doh.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 02:14 PM

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QUOTE(jonchai @ Apr 16 2014, 02:13 PM)
I told many times liao .... Back then was 795 ..... No one listened  sad.gif

Now, if my wind proves to be true, then at 1 still can chase  brows.gif
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Hehe.. laugh.gif

Next wind, shout louder ya. We will take notice now thumbup.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 05:50 PM

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Homer forming base... bruce.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 16 2014, 05:55 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 16 2014, 05:51 PM)
Homer becoming coma...  tongue.gif
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About time for the next wave already... next week laugh.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 17 2014, 10:59 AM

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Kicking, kicking bruce.gif
lambethwalk
post Apr 17 2014, 11:54 AM

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My form base comment yesterday, veli the accurate tongue.gif

This post has been edited by lambethwalk: Apr 17 2014, 11:54 AM

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