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 M Reits Version 6, Malaysia Real Estate Investment Trust

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SUSw19
post Apr 18 2014, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Apr 18 2014, 01:34 PM)
eh? not believer or not.
Just that i've no working crystal balls yet :sweat:
Good lar - if drop. Current net DY yield not interesting heheh :)

eh - what about if inflation or too much $ chasing too little real assets?
VS
interest rate up

i mean, with every major super power "printing $" (well US is "scaling down" - thus interest rate up?) to devalue currency & create liquidity (fake or real), wont there be inflation and/or more $ chasing same real assets?
again - no crystal balls yar, just thinking  :respect:
*
Example / Just sharing!

1. Current Malaysia inflation rate is 3.5% (I just read it last two days.), bank FD rate is around 3%.
2. When FD rate is lower that inflation rate, if too long this will course asset bubble. Asset bubble: first: Currency Drop (I believe you know our currency have been drop 10% to USD. Dec 13 rm2.98 exchange 1 USD, Now Rm3.30 exchange 1 USD.) Second: Property & Stock.
3. You can find out why some of bank increase car loan interest by 0.4% to 0.7%. Bank say Bank Negara ask them to do it. The funny thing is Bank Negara give out statement saying they never have this instruction. (I just read it few days ago.)
4. What I know is we going to have next round currency drop.........if interest not up.........So sad..........My advice is move your money out now! Foreign Fund all out already. Super Rich all out already. Im poor little malaysian must out now to saving my money value........Investment is all about value. Money is all about value. If not, this all is just no and paper.
5. Believe or not! Let see!

This post has been edited by w19: Apr 18 2014, 01:54 PM
AVFAN
post Apr 18 2014, 02:11 PM

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QUOTE(w19 @ Apr 18 2014, 01:52 PM)
Example / Just sharing!

1. Current Malaysia inflation rate is 3.5% (I just read it last two days.), bank FD rate is around 3%.
2. When FD rate is lower that inflation rate, if too long this will course asset bubble. Asset bubble: first: Currency Drop (I believe you know our currency have been drop 10% to USD. Dec 13 rm2.98 exchange 1 USD, Now Rm3.30 exchange 1 USD.) Second: Property & Stock.
3. You can find out why some of bank increase car loan interest by 0.4% to 0.7%. Bank say Bank Negara ask them to do it. The funny thing is Bank Negara give out statement saying they never have this instruction. (I just read it few days ago.)
4. What I know is we going to have next round currency drop.........if interest not up.........So sad..........My advice is move your money out now! Foreign Fund all out already. Super Rich all out already. Im poor little malaysian must out now to saving my money value........Investment is all about value. Money is all about value. If not, this all is just no and paper.
5. Believe or not! Let see!
*
this school of thought is conventional, the issue has been thrashed to death again and again.
been going on for a long time, bnm or gomen has no will to raise rates for fear of slowing growth and risk a recession. same with many other gomens.
everybody wants to "inflate yr way out of trouble". tongue.gif until the currency drops like a stone.

the pressure is high but few believe rates will go up in a major way. for inv purposes, i pay little attention to potential rate changes, not until we see the first move, the real reasons for doing so.

but gud point, our money if not protected is become toilet paper. only way is to make it grow faster and not wait for gomen or bnm as their motives are not always the same as that for any individual.


wongmunkeong
post Apr 18 2014, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(w19 @ Apr 18 2014, 01:52 PM)
Example / Just sharing!

1. Current Malaysia inflation rate is 3.5% (I just read it last two days.), bank FD rate is around 3%.
2. When FD rate is lower that inflation rate, if too long this will course asset bubble. Asset bubble: first: Currency Drop (I believe you know our currency have been drop 10% to USD. Dec 13 rm2.98 exchange 1 USD, Now Rm3.30 exchange 1 USD.) Second: Property & Stock.
3. You can find out why some of bank increase car loan interest by 0.4% to 0.7%. Bank say Bank Negara ask them to do it. The funny thing is Bank Negara give out statement saying they never have this instruction. (I just read it few days ago.)
4. What I know is we going to have next round currency drop.........if interest not up.........So sad..........My advice is move your money out now! Foreign Fund all out already. Super Rich all out already. Im poor little malaysian must out now to saving my money value........Investment is all about value. Money is all about value. If not, this all is just no and paper.
5. Believe or not! Let see!
*
er.. item
1. inflation rate is usually > FD rate mar, unless there's a deflation (Japan before Abenomics anyone?)
what's the big deal ar?
BTW, did U know in MY 1980s - FD hit about 10%pa to 12%pa? AND that was during the golden bull run?

2. Due to (1.), i think this aint a sure thing

3. Speculation or truth - no impact right? what's done is done - interest rate up/down/left/right ALREADY.

4. Currency drop? U mean MYR vs USD?
or MYR vs SGD? or MYR vs YEN?
btw, MYR vs SGD - MYR actually strengthened this month vs 2 to 3 months ago leh (i track coz of my SGD investments + my love one studies in SG)
as for MYR vs USD - MYR also strengthened past month VS 2 months+ ago - i was moving $ to US the whole 2 to 3 weeks last month+ VS last month weeks ago

5. Again - it's not a matter of believe or not.
All these are speculation - just like someone in this thread (older version) that was screaming IGB good buy before IPO +someone else screaming office REITs all going to die 3 to 4 years ago.
Funnily - those who got into IGB are now wondering VS those who held or bought into office REITs like TWRREIT is still smiling after 3 to 4 years.
That is why i'm asking (not making a statement of fact) - are U sure?

Just a thought notworthy.gif
wongmunkeong
post Apr 18 2014, 02:17 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 18 2014, 02:11 PM)
this school of thought is conventional, the issue has been thrashed to death again and again.
been going on for a long time, bnm or gomen has no will to raise rates for fear of slowing growth and risk a recession. same with many other gomens.
everybody wants to "inflate yr way out of trouble". tongue.gif until the currency drops like a stone.

the pressure is high but few believe rates will go up in a major way. for inv purposes, i pay little attention to potential rate changes, not until we see the first move, the real reasons for doing so.

but gud point, our money if not protected is become toilet paper. only way is to make it grow faster and not wait for gomen or bnm as their motives are not always the same as that for any individual.
*
and that is why investors or even traders do some sort of asset allocation by asset type AND asset location - coz nothing's "for sure" other than things will go up/down/left/right tongue.gif.
er.. unless one has working crystal balls lar sweat.gif

Just thinking notworthy.gif
SUSw19
post Apr 18 2014, 02:32 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Apr 18 2014, 02:15 PM)
er.. item
1. inflation rate is usually > FD rate mar, unless there's a deflation (Japan before Abenomics anyone?)
what's the big deal ar?
BTW, did U know in MY 1980s - FD hit about 10%pa to 12%pa? AND that was during the golden bull run?

2. Due to (1.), i think this aint a sure thing

3. Speculation or truth - no impact right? what's done is done - interest rate up/down/left/right ALREADY.

4. Currency drop? U mean MYR vs USD?
or MYR vs SGD? or MYR vs YEN?
btw, MYR vs SGD - MYR actually strengthened this month vs 2 to 3 months ago leh (i track coz of my SGD investments + my love one studies in SG)
as for MYR vs USD - MYR also strengthened past month VS 2 months+ ago - i was moving $ to US the whole 2 to 3 weeks last month+ VS last month weeks ago

5. Again - it's not a matter of believe or not.
All these are speculation - just like someone in this thread (older version) that was screaming IGB good buy before IPO +someone else screaming office REITs all going to die 3 to 4 years ago.
Funnily - those who got into IGB are now wondering VS those who held or bought into office REITs like TWRREIT is still smiling after 3 to 4 years.
That is why i'm asking (not making a statement of fact) - are U sure?

Just a thought  :respect:
*
Just Sharing!

Yes. you are right. Ringgit is strengthened but value of ringgit not the same like Dec 2013. Future no one know but Im not confidence. I choose to go.

AVFAN
post Apr 18 2014, 02:43 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Apr 18 2014, 02:17 PM)
and that is why investors or even traders do some sort of asset allocation by asset type AND asset location - coz nothing's "for sure" other than things will go up/down/left/right tongue.gif.
er.. unless one has working crystal balls lar  sweat.gif

Just thinking  notworthy.gif
*
all crystal balls are held by wizards n witches. tongue.gif
AVFAN
post Apr 18 2014, 02:49 PM

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QUOTE(w19 @ Apr 18 2014, 02:32 PM)
Just Sharing!

Yes. you are right. Ringgit is strengthened but value of ringgit not the same like Dec 2013. Future no one know but Im not confidence. I choose to go.
*
i doubt there is even one currency in the world that buys the same basket of goods today as a year ago.

whether uk or usa or Saudi or singapore, prices of most items have shot up, be it coffee or prawns or doctor fees. becos of vast amounts of new money making its way everywhere.

here, once subsidy reduction n gst go into full force, our rm will see the full effect, I think very bad.

currency... a matter of relative strength. which is what wongmk was saying... asset allocation by type n location to reduce risk n optimize total value.

This post has been edited by AVFAN: Apr 18 2014, 02:51 PM
SUSPink Spider
post Apr 18 2014, 02:57 PM

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What happened to the Singapore guy, Dividend Warrior? Blog also down sweat.gif

http://dividendsrichwarrior.blogspot.sg/
elea88
post Apr 18 2014, 03:33 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 18 2014, 01:13 PM)
no doubt, popular landed props are best for long term, come rain, come shine, albeit much weaker rentals than highrise.
hence, one should always live in a house and rent out a condo if you have both!
actually, it depends on when u bot them.
for me, sabana isn't that bad, igb is much worse.
*
U are so correct. Agree Sabana isn't that bad.. coz still get good div even if price drop.
My worst investment is still IGB. I am still waiting...
tigana
post Apr 18 2014, 04:06 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Apr 17 2014, 03:48 PM)
bad how? i love cash. give me cash good good.  thumbup.gif
*
If you give more dividend than you actually earn, isn't that bad.
It will eat into their cash reserve - right?
SUSPink Spider
post Apr 18 2014, 04:19 PM

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QUOTE(tigana @ Apr 18 2014, 04:06 PM)
If you give more dividend than you actually earn, isn't that bad.
It will eat into their cash reserve - right?
*
Earnings =/= cash receipts

U have depreciation, amortisations, provisions, etc that eat into earnings but does not eat into cash flows wink.gif
tigana
post Apr 18 2014, 04:35 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 18 2014, 04:19 PM)
Earnings =/= cash receipts

U have depreciation, amortisations, provisions, etc that eat into earnings but does not eat into cash flows wink.gif
*
I see, but there's management fees, finance cost and taxes that has to be paid, and this cost a net income less than dividend distributed.

http://www.capitamallsmalaysia.com/financial_results.html

I just want to understand this better.
SUSPink Spider
post Apr 18 2014, 04:36 PM

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QUOTE(tigana @ Apr 18 2014, 04:35 PM)
I see, but there's management fees, finance cost and taxes that has to be paid, and this cost a net income less than dividend distributed.

http://www.capitamallsmalaysia.com/financial_results.html

I just want to understand this better.
*
E.g. IGBREIT is paying its REIT Manager fees with additional units.

If u know your accounting...

DR Manager fee
CR Share capital

U are issuing additional shares to the Manager as fee payment, no cash flow is involved.
tigana
post Apr 18 2014, 04:39 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 18 2014, 04:36 PM)
E.g. IGBREIT is paying its REIT Manager fees with additional units.

If u know your accounting...

DR Manager fee
CR Share capital

U are issuing additional shares to the Manager as fee payment, no cash flow is involved.
*
Interesting point. What about finance costs?
SUSPink Spider
post Apr 18 2014, 04:55 PM

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QUOTE(tigana @ Apr 18 2014, 04:39 PM)
Interesting point. What about finance costs?
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And not ALL finance costs involve cash flows.

Go study what is IAS39 / FRS139 if u know your accounting standards.

Basically it's about, RM100 to receive in let's say 5 years time cannot be recorded as RM100 in your account NOW, bcos of "time value of money".

Say, u expect to receive RM100 in 5 years time.

U record it as RM90 in your accounts.

End of the year u bring it up to 92.25

DR Debtor 2.25
CR Finance Income 2.25

And by end of Year 5, it will be RM100

Ada faham? tongue.gif
yok70
post Apr 18 2014, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 18 2014, 04:36 PM)
E.g. IGBREIT is paying its REIT Manager fees with additional units.

If u know your accounting...

DR Manager fee
CR Share capital

U are issuing additional shares to the Manager as fee payment, no cash flow is involved.
*
i love it when companies doing this. Usually these are good companies where shares=money. thumbup.gif

This post has been edited by yok70: Apr 18 2014, 05:13 PM
SUSPink Spider
post Apr 18 2014, 05:24 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Apr 18 2014, 05:12 PM)
i love it when companies doing this. Usually these are good companies where shares=money.  thumbup.gif
*
The REIT manager can then re-sell those shares in open market. nod.gif
tigana
post Apr 18 2014, 07:04 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 18 2014, 04:55 PM)
And not ALL finance costs involve cash flows.

Go study what is IAS39 / FRS139 if u know your accounting standards.

Basically it's about, RM100 to receive in let's say 5 years time cannot be recorded as RM100 in your account NOW, bcos of "time value of money".

Say, u expect to receive RM100 in 5 years time.

U record it as RM90 in your accounts.

End of the year u bring it up to 92.25

DR Debtor 2.25
CR Finance Income 2.25

And by end of Year 5, it will be RM100

Ada faham? tongue.gif
*
I see. I am afraid its beyond me.
So essentially you are saying these REIT companies can afford to pay dividends like this way indefinitely, because they are not really using cash to pay of finance and management fees.
AVFAN
post Apr 18 2014, 07:33 PM

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QUOTE(w19 @ Apr 18 2014, 01:29 PM)
1. Int up!

here u go... zeti/bnm is not as readable as u think when it comes to raising rates. wait till official inflation numbers hit 5% which means 10% in real life in klang valley - that's when they will act.

i say the probability of int rate hike is lower than zero water supply for a week this year. tongue.gif


QUOTE
A measure of expected swings in the ringgit headed for a second weekly drop after Malaysia’s central bank damped market speculation that interest rates will rise.

Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Zeti Akhtar Aziz said in an interview in Washington last weekend that the nation’s accelerating inflation doesn’t make her nervous, even as consumer prices rose 3.5 percent in March, the fastest pace since June 2011. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen also indicated this week that U.S. interest rates will stay low to support the U.S. recovery.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-18/r...-rate-bets.html

davinz18
post Apr 18 2014, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Apr 18 2014, 07:33 PM)
here u go... zeti/bnm is not as readable as u think when it comes to raising rates. wait till official inflation numbers hit 5% which means 10% in real life in klang valley - that's when they will act.

i say the probability of int rate hike is lower than zero water supply for a week this year. tongue.gif
*
don't play2 with water issue, it's very2 sensitive topic now rolleyes.gif

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