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 Is the bubble finally bursting? 2014, V2

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yugimudo
post Feb 6 2014, 09:42 AM

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QUOTE(prody @ Feb 6 2014, 09:19 AM)
Yeah people selling their houses will tell other people:
If you buy for own stay it doesn't matter what the price is.
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Woah, this statement is like "If you want to drink coffee it doesn't matter what the price is".

You are buying a properties that you may have up to 25~30 years of paying installment, and it is for staying.

Means that:
1. No liquidity. Investment properties already has the lowest liquidity, own stay properties is worse than that.
2. Let say DDD, no job, need money, also cant afford installment. Its either you let go at a price that benefit the "Vultures" or you default your loan to banks.
3. Let say UUU, your house doubled in price, but there is no point as you are staying in it. No increase in rental or no gain in capital. You can only proudly says your house worth $$$$ but it just on paper.
4. Increase in BLR also will bleed you to death if you buy overpriced house.

It doesnt mean dont buy. It means dont buy at overpriced value for whatever purpose.
yugimudo
post Feb 6 2014, 10:38 AM

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QUOTE(robert82 @ Feb 6 2014, 10:31 AM)
rented for the past 3 years.
Been looking for property for the past 2 years.

I have either the choice to continue waiting, for something that no one can be sure whether it gonna happen or not, drop drop drop.
Or I can just keep searching, found one I liked and straight buy.

I don't see a point of gambling to the point it is totally out of my reach.
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I think that is the best strategy. No point buying something you dont like. Heck, why must be slave to banks for 20++ years for something you dont like.

Found a place you like, just buy but dont buy ovepriced value. If you really like it, it will be worth it if you try to nego it to a win-win price.
yugimudo
post Feb 6 2014, 10:39 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Feb 6 2014, 10:34 AM)
If loan tenure is 30 years, for every 1% interest rate increment, monthly repayment increased by about 12%.

Those flippers who borrowed to the limit at low interest rate, in the event of substantial interest rate rise e.g. 3+%, a good proportion of these loan will become doubtful and npl.
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It only become npl if the money stop coming.
yugimudo
post Feb 6 2014, 11:10 AM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Feb 6 2014, 10:42 AM)
Wow! Seriously, just on paper? No wonder with this mentality, you will never invest in anything because paper gain is not gain. paper gain is gain --- go ask warren buffet or bill gates. It is not liquid. Not liquid does not mean no gain. doh.gif
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I maybe wrong but my point is like this:

1. You bought a flat at RM30k for own stay
2. At today price, it shoot up to RM80k

Now I ask you, Are you gaining anything? In "value", yes your property has increase tremendously but as long you are not using it as collateral or refinancing, it will only look nice on paper.

I know this because my parents flat which I am staying has increase in price but in no way we feel richer or helping us in economic matters.
yugimudo
post Feb 6 2014, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Feb 6 2014, 12:03 PM)
So I guess bill gates and warren buffet should sell all their shares to lock in gains. Otherwise, they are worth nothing. Who knows tomorrow their companies might be worthless. unless they sell now, they are worthless. With such mentality, no wonder you never hold any properties.  hmm.gif
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In a way, that is the correct way to look at it.

When their stock crashes, Bill Gates and Warren Buffet will be affected the most. However, that will not be the case as they already invested some of their in other forms of commodities or land asset.

It will be silly of them to amass their richness only in paper form. Especially not when their gov printing money like no tomorrow.

And dont assume people are not looking for properties because paper gain is not a gain. People have different strategies of investing. But by buying a house for own stay, you risking yourself from future opportunities if you are too attached to your prop (i.e. heavily invested on renovation).

I am sure that there people or investor that buy investment properties but also make it for own stay and ready to cash out on good deal.
yugimudo
post Feb 6 2014, 01:00 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 6 2014, 12:34 PM)
Rich ppl got more debts?? Haha u r wrong
Y rich ppl got more debts?? Oredy rich still need loan ?

Rich ppl no need loan. Only middle n middle upper ppl need loan. Middle ppl with loan easily bankrupt.

Rich ppl  keep money in bank n bank tk Tis money loan to middle class ppl. Ok.
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Wow. Im not belittling you but you need to read more.

Rich people keep money in bank? That is so old school. Have you ever heard of bank runs? Or have you read about how Cyprus froze the bank accounts and force a tax cuts?

Rich people do loan, but their loans is good debts. That is what the flippers and renters are looking for, good debt.

Middle class people is the most class that have money in banks. And most of the loan is bad debt.


yugimudo
post Feb 6 2014, 05:02 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Feb 6 2014, 04:14 PM)
Agreed.  rclxms.gif
Home owners also not stupid lor . ... they see property overpriced also they won't touch la. 
Don't think that home owners are not born with brain ma..... nod.gif
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No lar got also. I just read here, "if for your own stay just buy at any price"

QUOTE(Martinis @ Feb 6 2014, 04:19 PM)
Stocks and properties valued same way. Marked to market. No need to sell to justify value.
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Ok, I will use different kind of asset to explain, commodities. Similar like properties, commodities also has up and down. The particular commodities I will use is silver.

There is a movement in graph last 2 year, where it looks like it will skyrocketed. The unfortunate thing is that I was buying when the graph is going up. Now, silver spots is way lower than the time where I enter silver investment.

I buy at spot RM100/oz
Today Feb 2014, silver spot is RM67. I bought 13 oz.

Do I lose money? In a way yes, my silver is priced less. But, if Im holding it, I am also holding from losing.

If in Feb 2015, silver spot soar to RM120/oz, will I have gains? In a way yes, my silver now priced more. But, if Im holding it, I am also holding from gaining.

P/S: But silver is not like gold and properties. At least gold can be "pawn"ed. You can not refinance using silver and Im not using loan to buy the silver. But it definitely show you that paper gain and lose is nothing until you transact the goods.

yugimudo
post Feb 6 2014, 05:08 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 6 2014, 01:19 PM)
Abang, if rich ppl wat to do loan oso figure out how to loan under company. Personal loan a lot is go to middle n middle upper class becos majority is worker.

If rich ppl tk loan under personal or housing. The main reason is tax. They dun LHDN come over them. Tk loan is a preparation to answer LHDN
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That is called wealth protection. That is why they are rich but it doesnt means they do not loan. Just that they transfer the risk of the loan to other entities. It doesnt make sense if you have 1 million in the bank, sitting there with sheety interest, only to be eaten by inflation.

But what do I know, Im not rich. rolleyes.gif
yugimudo
post Feb 6 2014, 05:13 PM

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QUOTE(HuiChyr @ Feb 6 2014, 04:50 PM)
But we diverted from original discussion: Bill Gates is a different class and type of investor. And it's gonna be long discussion on this topic for next time. But if you read Robert Kiyosaki's book on Cashflow u'd understand.  nod.gif
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I was scared to promote him as people like to see him as scammer. Thanks to him, I finally understand on how the wealth flow. Why rich people take loans, why does US print money and they got away, why there is bubbles. He doesnt teach, he enlighten.
yugimudo
post Feb 6 2014, 05:50 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 6 2014, 05:33 PM)
Hihi, so just now got ppl said rich ppl more debts till bankrupt. Wat kind of logic.  biggrin.gif
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Can you quote when or where this is stated? More debts doesnt mean you are bankrupt. You bankrupt when you are not paying your loan.

The reason you loan is so that you dont have to use cash for liabilities and you can use the cash for other opportunities. And te other benefit is that your loan will worth less in the future because of inflation. But I, myself, am not a rich guy, so even I dont understand how they play the game.

This called leveraging on OPM (Other People's Money)

P/S: Dont compare with RosM, she is gov related. They are not tied with the money rules, they are above it.


yugimudo
post Feb 6 2014, 07:59 PM

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QUOTE(Rabel @ Feb 6 2014, 05:53 PM)
I not saying u. Got somebody else. Pls check the previous post before I replied. Tq  biggrin.gif  biggrin.gif
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Ok.

QUOTE(Martinis @ Feb 6 2014, 07:32 PM)
What do you mean don't get tricked by it? There is no trick. Nobody is tricking anybody. You can practise your own prudence by discounting the market value but the fact remains MTM is the only logical valuation.

On Bill Gates and old Warren, they are still the same kind of investors. Just that they add a few zeros only.
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We mean that the mark to market method is not wrong but only bank or official accountancy use it. But if you are aiming to be wealthy, it is not good to use the method for your benchmark. If you want to use mark to market, then by definition my net worth is half million due to fact that I am insured for my death. It doesnt matter if Im not dead because on paper the company already promised to pay me upon death.

Does this mean Im rich? Heck no. Can I cash out? No. Similiar to own stay home. Even the value increase, it doesnt matter coz you cant sell it.
yugimudo
post Feb 7 2014, 07:28 AM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Feb 6 2014, 10:40 PM)
Aiyo, u don't have half million NOW cos you still alive. This is not marked to market. Insurance company has a contingent liability to u. The liability is contingent on your death. Understand? You cannot be alive and have 500k. But you can have a house worth 500k and stay in it OR you can sell the house and take 500k and put into FD and rent.

Maybe your house/condo is too small and there is nothing to downgrade to. Imagine you own a bungalow worth 5mil. Can you sell it and move to a smaller condo when you retire? You are saying it does not matter whether one's house is bungalow or small condo because it is your house BUT you can sell your house! why not? Even if u CANNOT sell your house, your house value is also part of your net worth.
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That is what Im saying all along. You only gain when you sell. It doesnt matter how many increase in price or value, as long as you are not selling, there will be no gain or profit. If the said bungalow is bought at 4.5m and i use another 0.5m for renovation, selling it off at 5m will means that there is no gain even on paper it increase 0.5m in value.

What I want to show you is that method is useful to calculate capital gain but not cashflow. To retire, it is better to aim for cashflow rather than gain.

I use this last example, if this cant explain it then It just mean that im not a good explainer:

U bought land 1 at rm20k.
The price increase to 100k. But as long as you are not selling, you are not profiting.

U bought land 2 at 35k, u add 30k loan to develop into plantation. Positive cashflow +rm500
The price fall to 25k as there are many nearby seller selling cheaply. Are u at lost?

Actually land 1 is called capital gain investment. While land 2 is your cashflow investment. Both are what properties investor are looking. Basically, land 1 is good for flipper, while land 2 is good for passive income.

But if you buy a house for own stay, you cant use the above principal unless you are willing to move out and downgrade.
yugimudo
post Feb 7 2014, 09:43 AM

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QUOTE(Martinis @ Feb 7 2014, 08:31 AM)
If you have capital gain, it is not necessary for you to sell it off to say that there is a gain. Capital gain can be accumulated over years or decades. If you have only one property and that is your house, then, yes, it does not make much difference to you as you need a place to stay. But when you have more properties in future, then you will realise what I say is true. Even if you have only 1 property and that is your house but your house is a bungalow, it can still make a difference because you can downgrade.
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Come on man. You check back our discussion. That is what I am also saying all along. You only make the gain when you sell. The point is when you are not selling, it doesnt matter. I am not saying you should not downgrade but if you chose to hold, you would not gain. Paper gain is not gain. Unless that paper you trade for green paper.

QUOTE(Martinis @ Feb 7 2014, 08:31 AM)
I think you are one of those brainwashed by Kiyosaki that only positive cash flow assets are assets. Well, he is only partly right.  wink.gif  This is my last post on the matter. I hope you can digest what I have explained.
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That is not correct. I am no where stating that. That is why I dont like to mention his name. Traditional people will get defensive. If an asset has increase in capital gain, it still is an asset but only beneficial when you sell. But people who play for capital gains are considered flipper not investor by Kiyosaki rule.

And it is not wrong to be a flipper but as this thread is all about flipping is going to be hard as DIBS has been removed and RPGT is being introduced.

In buble burst scenario, of corz flipper will jump from their properties but investor a.k.a landlord may be affected less or non at all.


yugimudo
post Feb 7 2014, 09:45 AM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Feb 7 2014, 09:41 AM)
shell is one of them
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Ceh, that field, 10k++ at 30 is also possible.
yugimudo
post Feb 10 2014, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Feb 9 2014, 04:53 PM)
U cant equate your era with now.. hello.. last time salary enough to play game property...

now a days because of flippers.. this game cannot play liao even though banks give out 70 % max loan and 35 years duration..

why u want young generation to follow suit.. last time u buy rental yields good coz entry price low maa... now entry price beyond reach (I m sure kv yeoh will say .. u know how.. ppl joint with auntie uncle play)... u are sending a wrong message into the market...

U look like developers talk talk till sky.. all the hell stuff diam diam.. youngster absorbing your secondary not more than a year di cannot service loan.. what d point..

sumore adding cost to inflated prop.. the agents mark up.. then also sapu 3% and thete you call the new price...all affected into so call selling price dat owner only let go at this price...

suan lahh... the graph of human population goes up.. property price dont.. that d rule..
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Maybe only those VVIP (very very important prop) is overinflated. Have to be extra aware of the opportunity as the Jerung also are looking for it.

So dear Jerung, you all go play those 500k unit and leave the 100k~200k unit to my gen to start playing icon_question.gif
yugimudo
post Feb 10 2014, 12:31 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Feb 10 2014, 12:15 PM)
Well, seriously u dint get what he mean?

Rebooted means the price of a DSL property in KV goes down to a level where an employee with 3k of salary can afford to buy. Not forget to mention that the employee must own a car (probably imported one) first before buying the property... rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif
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I think you miss his point.

Like me, my salary is 2.4k. A 3k salary is likely to be junior exec. This is the case for non O&G company. So, your 10k before 30 is just absurd in many level at normal industries.

A junior exec is most likely to own a car. With salary like that, we are expected to travel occasionally. But what brand he will choose to ride? If he like me, buy a 1st hand SV, already has to RM400/month. 2nd car might be a lot cheaper. But will he willing to buy a 2nd car or cheap car?

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