Based off the hype around the ETF I have decided to post some of my analysis and comments here. Enjoy the walls of text

My comment: I will be very very suprised if we get approval. These statements from the most recent amendments to the prospectus alone lead me to believe that it will not be approved and if it is, that no real market makers (people that could influence the price of btc) will actually buy in. These few quotes are pulled directly from the SEC filing. Not to sound like a prick, but as far as I can tell 99% of crypto traders have no fucking idea as to how the real market works.

The follow quotes from the prospectus are literally just the tip of the iceberg of reasons for people NOT to invest in the ETF IF it gets approved. Here's the source link as well in case anyone wants to read through the 127 page filing a few times like I did.

Link: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/157...d296375ds1a.htm

"Although currently bitcoin is not regulated or is lightly regulated in most countries, including the United States, one or more countries such as China, Icelandic, Vietnamese and Russia may take regulatory actions in the future that severely restricts the right to acquire, own, hold, sell or use bitcoin or to exchange bitcoin for fiat currency. Such an action may also result in the restriction of ownership, holding or trading in the Shares. Such a restriction could result in the termination and liquidation of the Trust at a time that is disadvantageous to Shareholders, or may adversely affect an investment in the Shares."

"If regulatory changes or interpretations require the regulation of bitcoin under the CEA by the CFTC and/or under the Securities Act and Investment Company Act by the SEC, the Trust and the Sponsor may be required to register and comply with such regulations. To the extent that the Sponsor decides to continue the Trust, the required registrations and regulatory compliance steps may result in extraordinary, non-recurring expenses to the Trust. The Sponsor may also decide to terminate the Trust. Any termination of the Trust in response to the changed regulatory circumstances may be at a time that is disadvantageous to investors."

"Potential conflicts of interest may arise among the Sponsor or its affiliates and the Trust. The Sponsor and its affiliates have no fiduciary duties to the Trust and its Shareholders, which may permit them to favor their own interests to the detriment of the Trust and its Shareholders."

"The Sponsor has no fiduciary duties to, and is allowed to take into account the interests of parties other than, the Trust and its Shareholders in resolving conflicts of interest;" The Sponsor’s relationship with the Gemini Exchange creates an incentive for the Sponsor to sell the bitcoin it collects as its Sponsor’s Fee for U.S. dollars on the Gemini Exchange, which benefits the Sponsor’s affiliates through increased volume on the Gemini Exchange and which may negatively impact the value of the Trust’s remaining bitcoin;"

I have plenty more points brought up in this filing that point towards rejection of the ETF or at least very minimal investment upon approval. All the people banking on a huge increase in the btc price upon approval have no idea how the actual market works. Having studied and worked (currently working) in market/financial analyst and analyst related postions for years I can tell you with a great degree of certainty that this ETF is not going to have a happy ending for anyone that invests in it. And FYI, anyone who thinks they can redeem their BTC for ETF shares and visversa, take a look at this quote relating to parties that are allowed to transfer btc to ETF shares and also shares into bitcoin (once again this is straight from the prospectus)

"An Authorized Participant is authorized to serve as such under the Trust Agreement and pursuant to the terms and provisions of an Authorized Participant Agreement which it must enter into with the Sponsor, subject to acceptance by the Transfer Agent. Each Authorized Participant must be (i) a registered broker-dealer or other securities market participant such as a bank or other financial institution which is not required to register as a broker-dealer to engage in securities transactions and (ii) a participant in the DTC in order to enter into an Authorized Participant Agreement with the Sponsor on behalf of the Trust, subject to the acceptance by the Transfer Agent. In my opinion this ETF is a complete fucking joke based off of the filings. I'm not saying there won't be a rally in anticipation of the ETF nor am I saying there won't be a post approval rally (if it gets accepted), but in the end this ETF structure and make up will almost certainly be rejected, or if approved, will end in a very massive "sell after the hype" event.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ethtrader/comments...c_etf_approval/