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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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prody
post Jan 10 2014, 01:18 PM

Dance while the record spins
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QUOTE(Balrog @ Jan 10 2014, 12:27 PM)
Interest rate for house loan will definitely go up.

One way to tell is to compare with 10 year government bond yield (which is the interest rate at which the Malaysian government is borrowing money, for 10 year loans). 10 year is suitable for comparison because on average housing loans are settled in roughly 10 years (the loan tenure may be 30 years or whatever, but on average it will be settled earlier as the house is sold etc).

Malaysian government 10 year bond yield is 4.2%, a big jump from just six months ago. So certainly the current interest rate for housing loan does not make sense, because as a lender, there is no reason to loan to house buyers at the same rate as loaning to Malaysia government (house buyers should pay a higher interest). I am not sure what is the difference in yield in Malaysia historically, but in the US, the gap is 1.0% to 1.5%.

By the way, one big factor driving up the interest is of course the plan to reduce and eventually eliminate the QE in the US.

Malaysia gov 10 year bond yield
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/charts/mal...101&d2=20141231

US gov 10 year bond yield
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/10_year/charts
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Good info there, thanks.
prody
post Jan 12 2014, 02:11 PM

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QUOTE(jwrx @ Jan 12 2014, 12:23 PM)
this is damn good advice.

I share my stories as well. Im currently staying in a prop which i bought for 1.3mil in PJ back in 2011. That time, price still ok, but can see flippers starting to come in, over the years, the flippers came in force, cos areas like TTDI/DJ etc became too expensive, prices creep to 2mil....then 2.2mil...then 2.5mil. And this in turn attracted even more flippers to my area.

Now..its 2014, just 3 short years since i bought my house. The asking price is now 2.6-2.8mil for unreno, reno is asking for 3.2-3.3mil NO ONE IS BUYING...i count 6 props for sale within 1 km of my house that has been on market minimum of 6 months, 2 have passed 1 year. These flippers must be crying every month, cos its not a rentable area, ppl buy to stay only

at 2.8mil for a house, it makes more sense to put your market in klse, and just rent the damn place. i still see a few units being renoed to flip in my area..good luck to them. Malaysian prop market wont crash, but it will stagnant, and ppl will start lowering thier prices when they cant hold any longer, just have to wait and pick your jewels
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Not surprised nobody is buying. If property was worth 1.3m in 2011, the value according to some people could be as low as 800k.
prody
post Jan 12 2014, 02:13 PM

Dance while the record spins
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QUOTE(ManutdGiggs @ Jan 12 2014, 01:22 PM)
Auction house not only having bank as customer. Many owner can ask auction house to help instead of agent. There is a very gd way to sell prop thru auction house if u know the way. brows.gif
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I'd love to see those Australian type auctions (at the house itself) here. smile.gif
prody
post Jan 12 2014, 02:16 PM

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QUOTE(aberdeen @ Jan 12 2014, 01:50 PM)
To avoid risk with today mkt, avoid flipping, aim to buy and hold your property, 5 yrs is a good time frame to do so. The risk is minimised and the return could be huge. People will always need a place to live and property will always hold value. History clearly shows that property always has been and always will be a good investment.
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I advise you to study more before using words such as always.

prody
post Jan 14 2014, 01:21 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 14 2014, 09:47 AM)
For only property prices: http://www.numbeo.com/property-investment/..._by_country.jsp, affordability is still higher than many countries and price to income ratio is better than most countries too.
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I would not put too much trust in these numbers and definitely don't draw any conclusions from them.

Just look at the column showing Mortgage as a percentage of income... rclxub.gif
prody
post Jan 14 2014, 02:15 PM

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QUOTE(Showtime747 @ Jan 14 2014, 02:10 PM)
GDP (PPP) per capita is not the same as GDP (nominal) per capita

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