Wah, you really have your finger on the RE pulse! Ha.


Awareness

then

Knowledge

then

Skill

then

Mastery !!!


Keep it up! And share! Ha.

Saw this a few minutes ago (from Bank Negara).



Having one housing loan is already a concern for me, my salute to those with 3 or more housing loans!

If you have the 2013 report from BNM, please share. Thanks.

Sorry, I do not have the actual numbers.

Maybe someone reading this knows why the sudden increase in (a) Mar-Apr 2010 and (b) sudden drop in Mar-Apr 2011?

(a) - due to govt's drive with $$$ benefits? I know there was one govt promotion in pushing up the RE market a few years ago. Can't remember the details now.

(b) - another govt's hand working here but to slow it down?

Curious to know the % for Q4 2013!

Thanks.

My view is, the valuation will be used as the loan amount and the bank needs a REAL asset of that worth should later they need to take over the asset if the loan customer cannot pay the loan any more.

My 2 cents.

I attended an RE course many years ago. One advice which has stayed in my mind is, when buying apartment, go for the medium class apartments. Why? Not that it is cheaper than the high end but during:
* good time, even the lower income people will up grade themselves and go for the medium class apartment
* bad time, the high income people may downgrade and go for medium class apartment.

So the demand is better than the other 2 classes.

Is there truth in that from real experience?

Thanks.

Agree with your observation.

Almost everyday one can see newspaper articles on how good the coming year will be, company A will increase sales due to the robust local spending, company B will expand its business both locally and overseas, company C will see its products gaining dominance in the market, etc. etc. Are they telling the truth? Well, if I were the company's MD and a reporter asks me for my company's progress into 2014, you bet I will be very positive. Why? I guess not to "harm" the company with the truth, e.g. dropping share price later etc.

Dr Neoh (ex MU) wrote a book many years ago called Stock Market Performance and he noted and questioned why media was always positive before and at the start of the past economic crisis. My guess is, the publisher will have its publishing license on the line for its groomy economic business news, causing public panic etc. Not forgetting that there are some good hearted publishers who want to do their part in keeping the economy machinery running no matter what.

If I were doing their job, I am afraid that I will be doing what they are doing now, painting a rosy picture of the bleak future. though it is against my conscience. Luckily I am not in that line.

My 3 cents.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Jan 2 2014, 07:44 PM

Any one out there who monitors the number of weekend advertisements -house/apartment for sale and for rent?

Thinking of doing that to get a feel on the RE market. Share the work and we review here?

Cheerio.

Many thanks!

You made my day.

From what I read, office RE market is now on a downward trend with demand < supply.

Like to know whether some one in this forum has some data on the relationship among office, industrial and residential RE markets. Do they all go in the same direction (not all at the same time)? Which is the leading one among the 3?

Thanks.

Ha ha. To me, this confirms the bubble is there. Some people are really desperate/cunning. A+ for their ingenuity!

Informative, useful tips. Thanks for your sharing.

Cheerio.

Sharing what I did last night. Used data from NAPIC. I am not responsible for the accuracy of the data here or their interpretation.



1
Asking myself, is line B2 the new brother of A2?

2
In the 1998 crash, tell-tale sign was the high rise price index which declined 2 years before others. Do not see that pattern now. In fact, high rise index has increased the most (39%) among others over the last 3 years.

All Tce HR SD DT ==> 28% 28% 39% 24% 26%

Did we really see this higher jump in HR price in the market from 2010-2012?

3
The decline in 2008 was less than I expected (I expected >30%). The total drops over 2008 & 2009 were:

-12% -8% -10% -20% -13%

Biggest one was the SD sector.

If the relationship between the index and the actual price is linear, then the price drop was not that much, less than 20% in the 2 years.


I know history does not repeat itself down to the seconds but some awareness should be helpful.

If you see some other things in the 2 graphs, please share.

And also, if you have 2013 house price index data, please share as well. I am very interested to know whether the index in 2013 has started to decline like in 1997. Then more bad news to come!

Cheerio.

This post has been edited by plumberly: Jan 13 2014, 12:45 PM

Like I said earlier, it depends on the 2013 data. If it is lower than 2012, then my bet is a similar downward trend like in 1998.

Good point. Data is for the whole of M'sia.

Many thanks.

I thought the annual index is the average of the 4 quarters but my average value is not the same as what they have quoted for 2012. Do you know how to get the annual value using the Q values?

Thanks.

P/S Looking at the 2013 Q values (which are larger than 2012), I don't think then it is an mirror image of 1998. Let us wait for 2014 data then.