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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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bearbearwong
post Jan 2 2014, 10:14 AM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 2 2014, 10:02 AM)
How will the property market fare in 2014?
Dec 31, 2013 - PropertyGuru.com.my

Malaysia’s real estate sector is expected to remain vibrant next year, especially its middle and low-end segments, due to overwhelming demand amidst limited supply.

In fact, the country only has 4.6 million houses for its population of 28 million, or one home for every six Malaysians. According to experts, the ideal number is 2.5 persons per dwelling, just like in the UK and Australia. But with supply at 100,000 units per year, it is going to take a long time to reach this figure.

To make matters worse, Klang Valley’s current population of 7.2 million is expected to surge to 10 million by 2020 due to rapid urbanisation rate.

I m amazed bt times after the whole long unrebuttable arguements and etc... still on BBB mode ... now I tink got new camp liao CCC mode crash crash crash mode..

Ur prop in mahkota cheras or kajang bo.. I really want to buy these area
In addition, more international investors are projected to invest in Malaysia, particularly its real estate sector, due to the country’s robust economy and sound fiscal policies.

Due to the nation’s lower total deficit, Moody’s recently affirmed the government’s bond and issuer rating at A3, and changed its outlook from stable to positive. This means the country can easily get loans at lower interest rates and investors are assured that Malaysia can repay its debt obligations.

However, 2014 could also spell trouble for the property market due to a possible slowdown in China’s economy, a rise in global interest rates and the tapering of the third round of quantitative easing (QE3) in the United States by January.

Another worrying problem is the slowing demand for high-end properties despite their abundant supply. In fact, the percentage of unsold luxury houses in the primary market is climbing.

Nevertheless, Bank Negara Malaysia Governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz believes that the country’s real estate sector can weather the storm just like what happened in the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. While the US housing market went bust during that period, its Malaysian counterpart remained resilient.

But the measure that could significantly affect the property market will likely be the upcoming real property gains tax (RPGT). Effective January 2014, the tax for houses sold within three years of purchase will be doubled from 15 percent to 30 percent.

For foreigners and companies, the RPGT is pegged at 30 percent for sales within five years and five percent for any subsequent year. But for Malaysians who sell their property within four and five years, the rate is at 20 and 15 percent respectively, while transactions after that period are exempt from the levy.

The six percent goods and sales tax (GST) which takes effect on April 2015 is also expected to affect the real estate sector even though the sale, purchase and rental of residential properties are exempt from it. This is because the sale of construction materials and equipment were not exempted, likewise for services used in building houses.

Meanwhile, the government will also be spending more on residential projects meant for low- and middle-income households.

For instance, the National Housing Department (NHD) under the People’s Housing Programme (PHP) has allocated RM578 million for 16,473 new dwellings, while another RM146 million has been earmarked for building 600 rental units.

In peninsular Malaysia, houses under the PHP are priced between RM30,000 and RM35,000, while those in Sabah and Sarawak have been pegged at RM40,500 per unit.

The government has also committed another RM1 billion for the construction of 80,000 additional homes under the 1 Malaysia’s People Housing Programme (PR1MA). These homes are 20 percent cheaper than similar units available in the market.

The authorities will also launch a new Private Affordable Ownership Housing Scheme, (MyHome). Under this programme, RM300 million will be given to developers so that they can build low- and medium-cost houses, subsidised at RM30,000 per unit.

They will also create an agency that will oversee the overall planning, policy and strategy formulation, as well as coordination and monitoring of all issues affecting Malaysia’s housing market. Dubbed as the National Housing Council, its members will come from state governments, federal agencies, SPNB, NHD and PR1MA, along with private sector representatives.

Farah Wahida, Editor of PropertyGuru, wrote this story. To contact her about this or other stories email farahwahida@propertyguru.com.my

http://www.propertyguru.com.my/property-ne...t-fare-in-2014-
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bearbearwong
post Jan 2 2014, 08:23 PM

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many desperado in this forum.. wanted to dispose off the property.. by logic you will know.. all the arguements put forward is against price increase and positive market ahead.. why still got people tink market is good.. look at setia echo hill project treads.. so sad even the owners themselves doubt there will be any increase..

this property guru haizz.. sumore some still on BBB mode.. now campers di venture to CCC mode collapse collapse collapse mode.. tink need to list down klang valley and KL sofos, service apartment, condo, sofo to let ppl see how crowded and unaffordable is the market to the potential buyers..

guys with knowledge in shah lama, klang, mantin or any other place start those vacant but sold...
bearbearwong
post Jan 2 2014, 09:58 PM

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Actually.. u try drive in early in the morning at office hours.. then drive back at off office hour all the way back to setia echo hill.. see how many hours it took? If you are ok with this gor at least 5 years ahead.. then potentially can be stagnant or go a little higher.. even TTDI Groove kajang like vacant but sold.. next to you guys is seri pajam.. the old road heading towards semenyih town all the way to echo hill is so far and congested.. to city center is too far at reach..

I know u will say they will open up road to lekas highway.. so nearer.. maybe u want to count total toll expenses and petrol taking into account barang naik.. it easily cost 1000 plus.. my last record wen I from kajang to klcc.. rm 500.00 3 years ago

Worth it or not.. what say you.. the opening of macdonalds (many champion them will be the next township) kfc.. and etc.. in actual fact they are too common and no longer play important role.. they are everywhere.. btw u cant macdonald everyday gen y... that side need 10 years to up.. long term..


strictly my 2 cent.. can choose to disagree
bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 10:05 AM

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QUOTE(investz @ Jan 2 2014, 10:33 PM)
People who think property in year 2014 is CCC may have mental "jammed". All building material cost increased, how property price can drop? However, I'm not deny there will have some adjustment in property price. But it still will return back to normal and even higher. By using KLSE share market as example, 20 years ago composite index 900++ points. 10 years  ago 1200++ points. And now 1800++ points. Year 2018 will reach 2000++ points.

Just my 2 cent

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oi.. u understand or not.. demamd can go sky high.. affordibality wise.. who can.. ur reasoning is so good .. why USA DUBAI collapse..? Can bo.. like that property out only must BBB. Lar following ur reasoning.. nothing goes down wat alll up wat.. ya UP IN PAPER but CANT SELL

if u persist go ahead and sapu all property I have listed in my earlier post..

bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 2 2014, 11:27 PM)
Today's KLSE composite index is much higher than before the crash of 1997, why the stock market sentiment is not as vibrant?  rclxub.gif
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Btother.. if u really hold as long as the KLSE on your property as well.. u are not flippers.. u are long term 8nvestors..

most of the flippers wont even survive 5 years agree bo.. or at least 50% agree bo? 30 years..
bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 10:17 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 3 2014, 09:42 AM)
It is actually very difficult to guess the no of houses required. For now, it just mean that 28 mil people made up of 6.93 mil households that live in 4.5mil houses. So, there are more than 1 household in 1 house. Maybe 2 brothers with families live in a big house, or people with families staying with parents.

The actual house needed will be how many of these household move out and move where. Some will go to big cities, like kv. But then, they might stay together, etc.  or they might migrate, or stay back in kampoung, etc. how to estimate ? Even town planners are estimating.

Average 2.5 person per house is just bull. It means that majorities are not married or many people own more than 1 house.
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He can say everyting under the sun.. or till the moon come down.. in actual fact.. many properties are sold and still vacant.. those numbet will never be able to absord the properties AFFORTIBILITY is the ISSUE MY FRIEND... so long we argue di.. still wany BBB .. why even waste time here when the market is so good... all those unrebutted arguements

still posting unconstructive arguements.. come on..

bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 10:22 AM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 3 2014, 08:58 AM)
It is kv, not kl. Kl has 1 over millions only. Kv has much bigger area.
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Bt times.. ur double storey cost 700k di before 2014.. now factoring 30% RPGT and the expected profit with barang naik.. 800k? Going million di by 2015 taking into account service tax factor even it does affect
right..

dude.. can u analyse all the arguements before jumping ftom ship to ship.. from property guru article and the calculation..

all that u say never address the issue of AFFORDTIBILITY lehh..
bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 3 2014, 10:36 AM)
Mr Bear, if someone cant afford to own a house doesn't mean others cant afford as well...a young couple in KV with average total income of 6-7k can easily afford to buy a 500k condo in many areas of KV or Selangor.
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Oi..I also in that category lehhh.. vios lehh 700.. 500k ..2.3 k permonth.. for 35 years.. even that is true.. any landed 500k bo.. that cheepo echo hill also 450k lu..

Now 2014 that proo is 780k lehh can bo 3.5 k lehh
bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 3 2014, 10:44 AM)
There are always rich buyers and buyers with rich parents around.  You should work in investment banking rather than only the foreclosure side to get a more balanced view.
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Dude I thought u are uncle which have many properties. of course cant denied that there is alwayls rich buyers.. but rich buyers already got the1st hand prop like you.. you are targeting us.. wat that means ur property is targeting rich buyers maa.. why even bother to waste time here.. coz ur market is for rich buyers.. rich buyers or investors.. rich buyers wont even look at these LYN before purchasing.. ur move move here is definately middle class and not rich ppl.. dun trouble your precious time here more to investment ok...

u make statement here to tell those like me (low income).. the youngster will preceive your statement .that the market is good.. and proceed to buy when it is not.. all those MRT coming.. MCD coming even you also wont buy for stay mr investor.. right bo

the market despite u saying rich buyers.. they are the developers and investors like you.. at the end you still aiming ppl below you to absorb your property rigtt..

I think .. forumers here have less than 5 million of cash plus property some are struggling to sell... more than 5 million a.k.a millioners dont even bother talking here.. the go joint venture..


bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 11:23 AM

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QUOTE(Baohulu55 @ Jan 3 2014, 11:14 AM)
Always have economist mentioned bubble market
But until now , nothing happen but the price is going up day by day
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Newbie.. goes up day to day.. but vacant maa correct bo? Got ppl stay maa...
bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 11:28 AM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 3 2014, 11:08 AM)
Why must own a dugong when u know it will eat up big portion of your salary? And y must buy a landed property? Is it because you want to tanam sayur di belakang rumah?  rclxub.gif
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With the 700 extra u go on and purchase 780k property.. just to make the flippers fortune higher.. and youself tied with 35 years of loan.. right bo..

why not condo.. condo got that dirt cheap mehh... see you city and you vista.. beraoa.. those in mont kiara pj areas no need to say...

friend of mine bought one in condi in pj.. 650k.. he manage to setvice the loan for now. Have to sacrifice no cars purchased . but he regretted even he us earning 6.5 k.. many of which still below this bracket...
bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 12:00 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 3 2014, 11:08 AM)
Why must own a dugong when u know it will eat up big portion of your salary? And y must buy a landed property? Is it because you want to tanam sayur di belakang rumah?  rclxub.gif
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With the 700 extra u go on and purchase 780k property.. just to make the flippers fortune higher.. and youself tied with 35 years of loan.. right bo..

why not condo.. condo got that dirt cheap mehh... see you city and you vista.. beraoa.. those in mont kiara pj areas no need to say...

friend of mine bought one in condi in pj.. 650k.. he manage to setvice the loan for now. Have to sacrifice no cars purchased . but he regretted even he us earning 6.5 k.. many of which still below this bracket...
bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 12:11 PM

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QUOTE(BTimes @ Jan 3 2014, 11:30 AM)
I would like to encourage you to look at the brighter side of things and other ways to make more money to buy a house.  A house is not only dollar and cents, there are intangible stuffs like pride being able to own a house.  I was in your shoes before and was praying for a crash (that never happened) so I can roughly understand how you feel nod.gif
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Still 780k is never reasonable.. 10 years from now.. yes . U guys are selling the future price now..

Bt times.. really 60 % of the population wont be able to make it.. for sure.. this is capatilist society.. it seems that you di treasure the price of a house and its importance but hanging on this point u are taking opportunity to make profit which in turn to make others suffer..

it is still not affotdable no matter what you say..
bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 12:14 PM

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QUOTE(TOMEI-R @ Jan 3 2014, 12:07 PM)
Guys guys.. You all have your points there. But please bear in mind. If you have any friends who is doing mortgage or housing loans, or friends in real estate, just ask them how many loans are approvef nowadays compared to loans rejected and how many transactions there is and you would understand the situation better. whistling.gif
I'm not being negative or what, but looking at the figures you will roughly know how well the property market is doing now and I dont believe we have a lot of cash buyers willing to make purchases easily nowadays.
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My roomate maybank cum iskandar investor.. really bad few days before 2014. Many investor dumping property.. 2014 relax project zero
bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 3 2014, 12:24 PM)
I have frens who works as a banker or a property negotiator. According to them, the current market is still damn hot where many people are still in the BBB mode. However, it is not easy to secure a loan from bank nowadays especially to those flippers who have already owned a few units. Nevertheless, i see it a good sign to young genuine buyers who have been working hard for so many years and they definitely deserve to own a sweet home. flex.gif

  To those people who used to live in a comfort zone, very sorry, I suggest you try to apply Prima/Affordable houses from government or look for a subsale apartment instead of dreaming to own a landed property with a farm behind.  blush.gif
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Those who is rich and still believe BBB mode please go and ahead and buy more.. stop convincing the youngster to buy your ovetpriced property.. u are just killing them.. you yourself wont buy the landed at 780k.. what makes you tink those ppl below you can afford.. u just like developers just have intentuon to sell off your property invested.. even big boys aka developers apply ABS BRAKE..
bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 01:07 PM

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QUOTE(investz @ Jan 3 2014, 01:00 PM)

My point is Malaysia property will continue UUU. Its same as your statement, one house cannot always build/ sell at same price. Recession is an adjustment. Its a natural fact. Why must worry? If you jobless and unable to pay what ever necessity, many out there will accompany you. Is that scaring?

Let's see the property in Malaysia is bust or flying higher and higher.

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Why superpowers like USA suffer the same? . In paper it fly high.. in reality it is vacant.. SPM result very goood every year GDP oso good.. so u tink and feel good go on and snap property...as many as you can
bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 01:09 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 3 2014, 12:53 PM)
I will buy if only i can afford  cry.gif  if cannot afford to tanam sayur di belakang rumah then just buy from Tesco/ Giant/ Big Aeon or TTDI pasar la. Buying property is not an easy task ever since your grandparents time. How many landed are needed if all spiderman, cicak man, lala man  with salary around 3k per month (constitute 70-80% of population in Malaysia) can afford to own their nest in the KV? Unless Jib Gor announces the Mega or Giga Kuala Lumpur one day and perhaps that time bukit beruntung is also considered as part of the prime area.  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif
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It is not difficult either.. if we remove flippers out of thepicture.. less cost less legal fees.. less stamp duty.. no RPGT so it will be an affordable market all together..

Right...
bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(investz @ Jan 3 2014, 01:15 PM)

This is not convincing, forum is open to everyone to discuss/ share the opinion. If you cannot take it then leave it.
If youngster today not buy. Do you think another 5, 10 years they can afford? Please bear in mind,
if salary increments and property price rising in race, salary increment always is a loser cry.gif  

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Can affford bo sin? Use wat to buy. Another way let it stagnant then rot.. I assure you they will see the repomen.. are u buying rm780k landed.. u tell me?.
Better way maybe u take some time to look through the who arguements before commenting uncle..

U still wanna ask youngters to BBB mode.. can afford not firsy place... it is different from your era di.. if so confident that prop still in BBB MODE .. dun bother talking here right waste of time.. u should be busy counting money maa and entertaining house buyers..

Then ur BBB mode is convincing ahh..


This post has been edited by bearbearwong: Jan 3 2014, 02:00 PM
bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(r3apers @ Jan 3 2014, 01:56 PM)
this is  thumbup.gif  thumbup.gif
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Haiya this forum itself many di.. trying to convince you that it buying now or never.. they trying to dispose as well lu.. for sure one
bearbearwong
post Jan 3 2014, 04:28 PM

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QUOTE(commander571 @ Jan 3 2014, 03:46 PM)
I am 27, juz bought a 500k++ condo for own stay (first property)... i m not afraid of property bubble, just worrying if bubble didn't come at last and i will become homeless...good luck guys!

But i will be happy if bubble is starting to burst so that i can grab another one for investment purpose.  tongue.gif
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Oi you buying for own stay why worry bubble.. u service around 2.5 k permonth.. then what is your fuss here unless you want ti sell off the condo for 780k..

otherwise like bt times say prop will increase one maa at 20 down the road u di millionare.. right bo..

bare in mind.. not everyone work in O&G, not all are bank manager.. even you are bank sales team.. ur commission fluctates u must maintain that for 35 years my friend..and not all are doctors and lawyers or businessman.. and engineer..

logic tells you dat ur salary will be stagnant.. as u grow older unwanted old assest maaa.. sales team cannot go upto 10k basic one 5 k oso hard.. true bo..another 5 years 32.. when getting marry.. children.. car.. save money di maa marriage now 50k at least.. how.. stuck with the condo...

ask YOURSELF will anyone buy ur condi fir 780k.. or even better will you buy it yourselfff..my young friend

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