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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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BTimes
post Jan 3 2014, 09:55 PM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 3 2014, 09:50 PM)
I agree.. lor businesx oso no good in KV so many completed but empty units with a banner new ting is coming to the corner.. the famous OVERTIME BAR howmany close down.. puchong how many.. viva mall.. southgate.. 1 shamelin.. how many bubble tea shop close down ... along kajang within 5 kilometer how many giant di..

Tesco kajang.. aeon mahkota cheras.. aeon cheras selatan..metro kajang.. metro point.. new mall opposite paparich mahkota.. giant yulek..jaya grocer cheras central...leisure mall giant...tesco midah.. tesco ampamg..econsave ampang..viva mall giant.. aeon maluri...southgate.. 1 shamelin..numerous service apartment shops cum shopping mall... SUNVELOCITY remind you.. 3 of yje above shopping mall are reopen due to wound up aka gulung tikar...

the competitio  is too unhealthy..MCD KFC already pull down their price... housing..
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I have never heard MCD KFC reducing their prices. Care to share more details, please?
BTimes
post Jan 3 2014, 10:26 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 3 2014, 10:09 PM)
Every day MD & KFC also have value lunch & dinner what, occasionally got special price for selected meal, KFC every tuesday 25% off snacks plates, previously where got ? don't believe me ask your grandchildren I am sure they know...lol
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Those are marketing tricks and not your everyday price. Since when I'm so old sad.gif
BTimes
post Jan 4 2014, 07:07 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 3 2014, 10:51 PM)
I m not choosy..200k yes I know bout it if it is old.. anyway.. I need to fast in this topic.. guys look after bt times for shall you... he is highly speculative.. will corrupt youngster for sure..
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I gen y lah. Not corrupting youngsters, but to provide perspectives of the other (dark) side biggrin.gif
BTimes
post Jan 4 2014, 08:12 PM

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Just back from a residential and a commercial property launch. Buying interest are still quite healthy at both launches. Many people are just holding back due to Budget 2014. I dun think they are flippers because DIBS is gone and RPGT has been increased.
BTimes
post Jan 4 2014, 09:55 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Jan 4 2014, 09:45 PM)
Care to share how u perceived the healthy interest ?
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Based on number of agents/visitors and sales chart in the showroom, keeping in mind the selling points and launch period.

Those with poor sales can be easily identified e.g. almost empty carpark, few sales agents with almost no visitors, poor sales performance even after months of launch etc.
BTimes
post Jan 4 2014, 10:32 PM

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For JB, residential now probably left mostly long term investors (>5 years) and those buying for own stay. Flippers are mostly out, which is good news.

Not too clear about KL, but I guess high end condos could be oversupplied and could have price correction, if Singapore can serve as a reference after the cooling measures were implemented there.

Correction for typo - deleted "not"

This post has been edited by BTimes: Jan 5 2014, 08:30 AM
BTimes
post Jan 4 2014, 11:01 PM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 4 2014, 10:46 PM)
"almost empty carpark, few sales agents with almost no visitors" could also imply units sold out or only left with "returned units"  tongue.gif
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I usually go in to check e sales performance, profile of buyers n other information of e project. I also look at e drivers/ passengers as I drive ard, drive into e neighborhood, talk to e security guards etc to feel e area.
BTimes
post Jan 8 2014, 05:48 PM

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QUOTE(SonicKimi88 @ Jan 8 2014, 05:18 PM)
Condos appear to be oversupplied.
BTimes
post Jan 9 2014, 08:41 AM

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Household income n parents' help with 10-20% downpayment, plus other upgraders who reinvest their profit n foreign investors. All have to be factored in.
BTimes
post Jan 9 2014, 11:34 AM

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M'sia trade surplus touches 20-month high in Nov
Increase signals pick-up in global demand; bodes well for this year
Published January 09, 2014
By S Jayasankaran in Kuala Lumpur

MALAYSIA'S trade surplus hit a 20-month high in November, signalling a pick-up in global demand.

According to figures released by the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (Miti) yesterday, exports grew 6.7 per cent in November over the previous corresponding period, down from a 9.6 per cent rise in October, and less than the street's estimate of 10.3 per cent.

Despite the slower growth, the leadership is likely to be heartened as it bodes well for economic growth this year. During the last five years of relatively slack external trade, it had been strong domestic demand that had kept the country's growth story alive.

The current recovery is timely as fiscal consolidation - the government's new economic focus - could very well crimp domestic demand. Indeed, Chua Hak Bin, a senior economist at the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, said in a report yesterday that he expected growth in 2014 to reach an export-led 5 per cent from an estimated 4.6 per cent in 2013.

The lower-than-expected growth was mainly due to a contraction in palm oil exports (-12.2 per cent) and crude petroleum shipments (-8.2 per cent). But a new development was a 76.4 per cent rise in metal exports, primarily copper.

Meanwhile, machinery and appliances (22 per cent), and tech products (14.5 per cent) also grew at a faster pace in November compared to the previous month.

Imports, however, grew a slower 6.4 per cent in November, from 13.9 per cent in October, led by a fall in capital goods (-16.9 per cent). As a result, the trade surplus widened to RM9.7 billion (S$3.75 billion), its highest level since March 2012.

Overall, Malaysia's total trade from January to November rose 3.7 per cent to RM1.247 trillion from RM1.203 trillion in the previous corresponding period. Exports during the period rose 1.4 per cent to RM654 billion while imports expanded over 6 per cent to RM583 billion. Miti said in a statement yesterday that it expected export growth to continue at between 3 and 4 per cent this year.

The first 11 months of the year saw a trade surplus of over RM61 billion. The fairly impressive amount should quell all doubts that the country could once again post a current account deficit on its balance of payments - a phenomenon that last occurred in 1998 and which led to the ringgit free-falling against the US dollar.

The stronger growth and resulting inflation from all-round price hikes this year could see a more hawkish monetary policy. "We expect Bank Negara to stay on hold at this month's meeting, but are pencilling in a 25 basis points hike in the second half of 2014 (to 3.25 per cent) given our expectation of a pick-up in inflation pressures," Mr Chua predicted.

http://www.businesstimes.com.sg/premium/ma...gh-nov-20140109
BTimes
post Jan 9 2014, 11:35 AM

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Malaysia's economic growth is expected to be quite healthy this year, at the back of global economy recovery. Where will the earnings be invested?
BTimes
post Jan 9 2014, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(SonicKimi88 @ Jan 9 2014, 11:05 AM)
Thanks for the infor, mind to share where you get this Singapore prop news? Wanted to read more about it.

Cheers
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Outlook for the Private Residential Market in 2014
ST701 Editorial Team - January 3, 2014
By: Elizabeth Choong
http://www.stproperty.sg/articles-property...n-2014/a/148888

This post has been edited by BTimes: Jan 9 2014, 11:40 AM
BTimes
post Jan 10 2014, 07:31 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 9 2014, 11:40 PM)
are u changing sides?
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Parents n savings will take some care of downpayment. Spouse salary will take some care of monthly installments. Together, there is still room pay for houses.

Market up or down doesn't really matter to me as I'm not selling or buying. I'm just expecting upward pressure for prices to rise in good areas. Less accessible areas with oversupply of apartments could see a minor correction.

Good for u to trawl e showrooms regularly if u have e intention to buy at discount. Subsales might open up better opportunity, although u have to accept that e first buyer has already made some profit.
BTimes
post Jan 10 2014, 07:42 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jan 10 2014, 06:51 AM)
Property price inceased in the last few years wasn't caused by inflation, then how will inflation caused property price to rise?
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I suspect it is mainly due to cheap/devalued money. The $1 u see now is not e same $1 u see a few years ago. Its purchasing power has been stolen by central banks tt print money.

The house is e same, and physical attribute/utility might have gone up a bit due to surrounding development. But more dollars r needed to buy this house becoz its previous purchasing power has been lowered.

Where did e purchasing power go to? It has simply been stolen by e countries such as US, China, Japan etc tt have been printing trillions of dollars. It allows their government n citizens to use e purchasing power to buy goods n services to lower e impact of recession.

The countries economy has been improved n life of their citizens r doing better, at ur cost. Now u have to work harder to earn more dollars to buy e same house. Effectively u r working harder so tt e life of those in US, China, Japan etc can become better.

Is there a way to get back e purchasing power of e $1? It has been used up n I doubt so. In another words, high prices r here to stay.
BTimes
post Jan 10 2014, 09:56 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Jan 10 2014, 09:22 AM)
I on the other hand totally disagree with BTimes, our currency is way better than 1998 which hit RM 4 per dollars before controlled at RM 3.8 which then never showed any sudden surge in properties nor goods price at large, our currency dropped as much as 50% in year yet we fdid not see property price jump the same.
BTimes is just trying to justify real estate price surge not cause by artificiality demand by flippers rather genuine demand & rising cost, I am sure he would have says the same for artificial oil demand in 2008 which eventually proven to be nothing but a hoax.
BTimes intention is to create white terror on current buyer to give up their stand & pay the over inflated price for properties so that his bunch of flippers can escape the current dead trap & avoid losses or bankruptcy.
Only ignorant buyer would not see the properties market heat is all over, previous flipper r waiting for their judgement day.
Those who doesn't need a house urgently & wait for BTimes & his bunch to see how strong ia their holding power during turbulence year of 2014-2015 people with strong holding power usually just keep quiet  & wait rather than brouhaha "faster buy before price go up again" ...lol  only desperado do that. .rofl
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You could have mis-read. I'm saying that the value of money is dropping. It is pure economics and applies to almost everything you can buy around you. For more idea about money, you can watch the documentaries below.

The Truth about Money
Money as debt I: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I_x626joik0
Money as debt II: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l_IgcmsqnVM
Money as debt III: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rxZhtGeRa-M

BTimes
post Jan 10 2014, 10:18 AM

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QUOTE(bearbearwong @ Jan 10 2014, 09:53 AM)
U are right downpayment everyting can be settle.. installment also can join.. for 35 years... just for you to earn that no brainer 100k.. 150k or even 200k.. u really Qin emperor just for the undergroundfrotress( flipped price) u need everyone to join ti satisfied your appetite so dat you invest elsewhere.. I agree those first hand buyers deserve some profit but 200k upon completion.. that is future price 5 years at least or even 10 years.. it definately overpriced.. u got read my setia echo hill post here.. u are behaving like one of them right...

more shocking I shall calculate in precise total payment to bank for a 750k prop in KV at the end the house actually worth 1.5 m..at least when u finish servicing.. a DSL 35 years down the road must be sold at 1.6 million despite old.. thise hold longer 5 years willlock their money servicing loans worth of 3k permonth if accumulated for 5 years without DIBS is 180k which is enough deposit to flip 3 units at least...

Wait them rot.. get their credit situation and press their price.. if not let them bancrupt they sure have other prooerties in hand to cover.. u really hard core holding a lot of units..
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It appears overpriced because the previous paper money you have in the bank has lost its purchasing value and some developers/sellers also do get greedy rolleyes.gif

You can wait for prices to crash before buying, but it becomes a probability game. You may need a house sooner than it crashes. If it is the other way round, then I congratulate you on your foresight smile.gif But based on your (emotional) posts here, I think you are quite keen on getting a lovely house soon.
BTimes
post Jan 10 2014, 04:22 PM

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QUOTE(joeblows @ Jan 10 2014, 03:53 PM)
Based on your emotional posts here, I think you are holding quite a few props in a stagnant market with a negative outlook.

Quite hard to flip now eh? smile.gif
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I have already mentioned that they are meant to be held in perpetuity smile.gif
BTimes
post Jan 11 2014, 06:14 AM

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QUOTE(CK15 @ Jan 11 2014, 12:45 AM)
Attended the briefing for GST project. The partner form EY expects  the resident property's price likely will increase, reason being the Developers can't claim back GST from upstream supply, therefore it'll factored in their cost into the property price...... true? I don't know.. will see till then.  hmm.gif
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Any launch in H2 2014 shd start to experience e price increase as property takes 2-3 years to develop. Full impact shd be felt in Q2 2015.
BTimes
post Jan 11 2014, 10:43 PM

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I think the Gini coefficient in Malaysia has been increasing rapidly in recent years. The government has not managed the taxes collection and re-distribution well.
BTimes
post Jan 12 2014, 07:05 AM

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QUOTE(aberdeen @ Jan 11 2014, 11:37 PM)
Here is an interesting article...

How Can I Protect Myself From a Real Estate Bubble?

To protect yourself, follow these simple tips:

    Don't overextend yourself. Buy a house that you can afford with a traditional mortgage where you make principal and interest payments at a fixed interest rate.

    Follow the rule of thumb that you should limit your housing costs (including property taxes, principal and interest, and homeowners' insurance) to between 25% and 32% of your family's gross income.

    Don't assume that your house will continue to appreciate at the fast pace that it may have in recent years.

    Don't buy a house whose price is artificially inflated just because you're afraid you'll miss out on the opportunity to buy before prices go up yet again.

    Don't buy a house you can't really afford just because you think it's a good investment. The more real estate prices rise, the less likely they'll continue to do so. Eventually the bubble will burst, and you don't want to be caught in "bubble trouble."

    Don't indulge in cash-back refinancing and use the equity in your home to buy cars or boats, take vacations, or pay off debt (unless you're committed to avoiding the spending habits that got you into debt in the first place). It could come back to bite you if real estate values decline.

    Don't purchase real estate with an interest-only loan if you can't afford the property otherwise. These loans usually have adjustable interest rates, which could make your payments unaffordable. Once the interest-only period ends and you must start paying principal as well as interest, you may not be able to make the payments and could be forced to sell the property at a loss.

    Choose a modest home in a good neighborhood rather than buying a home larger or fancier than you need or a bigger home in a less desirable neighborhood.

    Avoid buying a house in an area that has appreciated well above the average rate of appreciation in that area over the past few years.

The bottom line: don't panic about a potential real estate bubble, but exercise caution and good financial judgment when buying real estate, choosing your mortgage type, and taking equity out of your home.
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Very good guidelines thumbup.gif


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