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Investment 4 Critical Signs of a Bubble Market, Property Investment

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tangibee
post Dec 14 2013, 04:25 PM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 14 2013, 03:42 PM)
Read from some expat forum US property market actually going into a long stall period before crashing,  people would wait before finally give up.

Its a waiting game, so long not in desperate both buyers & sellers would test each other patients.

It's a fox & rabbit game, DDD campers is fox chasing for food while UUU campers is like rabbit running for life, if the fox missed the yummy rabbit can always look for other easier target (eg other investment), while weaker flipper may end up with a bankruptcy if can't afford after vp, bankruptcy in Malaysia is no jokes.

http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/artic...d-and-lived-in/
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Many UUU will rather suitable as bull (not rabbit) and fox is welcome to wait.
tangibee
post Dec 16 2013, 08:54 AM

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More buyers being filtered out from getting a loan doesnt mean property heading south. It shows less qualified buyers at market imo. Thats true color of buyers not about property value itself. Holding power is the key on good location.

This post has been edited by tangibee: Dec 16 2013, 08:55 AM
tangibee
post Dec 16 2013, 09:08 AM

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QUOTE(plumberly @ Dec 16 2013, 08:58 AM)
I was not relating it to the loans.

Seeing more and more reports that real estate sales are on the decline. Thus ...

I may be wrong.
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Still if talks abt cash buyers, not many able to make big value purchases without loan. Same thing, also filtered out from capability to purchase. No one like to cut lost, if does it is called ROI cut. Buyers still pay to seller some premium. Only weak flippers are going to find it hard to keep up with repayment. If no rental, smell the trouble coming soon during VP. Subsales are plenty in markets, can go buy "cheap" ones that is bigger size. If take new ones at affordable price, be ready to scarify size.

This post has been edited by tangibee: Dec 16 2013, 09:11 AM
tangibee
post Dec 16 2013, 11:16 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 16 2013, 10:45 AM)
Bank loan is always available to qualified buyers.

Real crunch will come after auctioned foreclosure price is registered and become a reference price for new loan to similar units. Buyers to subsell units need to fork out more cash for downpayment, means subsell need to hold longer, sending more subsell to auction, to lower price. This phase will only commence 2 to 3 years after npl and may last for 5 years or so.
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Just to add, one if too fragile, pls dont buy anything if unable tolerate small fluctuation.
tangibee
post Dec 16 2013, 11:48 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Dec 16 2013, 11:30 AM)
To most if not all flippers, it is too late to get out.
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Sell upon VP is harder now imo. I believe they be ok, just sell at lower margin or try to rent out, probably can survive, just spend less to accomodate. If loosing source of income + weak flipper = gone case.
tangibee
post Dec 16 2013, 08:14 PM

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QUOTE(gspirit01 @ Dec 16 2013, 01:31 PM)
I remember talking to a developer senior staff before.  I asked them how they determine their property price.  He told me, they look at land cost, construction cost, etc.  But most importantly, they reference to the properties sell prices in the area.  If a condo projects in that area selling for 500 psf and are able to sell it fast, they will follow something similar.  Let's say, if the properties in Iskandar now is not selling well, I am sure the new developments will cut price to off load faster.  Bear in mind that for some developers, land holding cost and development cost incur interest as well.  If bad time is coming, and people desperate to cash out, the price decline may be very fast. 

Actually I believe that removal of DIBS actually impacts quite a lot on the investment sentiments.  In the earlier months or years, where DIBS is offered, it is a good way to make money, as no big down payment is required for 2-3 yrs.  Just like in one of the post, for 20k downpayment for 400k property, if, after completion, it is not too lucky that it went up only to 450k.  One still made more than 50% on 20k.  Now that DIBS is gone, the investor has to come out with 20k+roughly 36k(estimate 9% for three yrs) for interest payments, the same property will suffer a loss of (6k+other fees like agent commission), instead of gains.

Of course, one can argue that they can add these to the new selling price on top of desired profit.  True when the cycle just started, but not in the late phase of circle.  For people who buy the house for their own use, extra 10k is considered alot, as it may not be recovered for a long long time.  For investor or flipper, extra 10k is considered not too bad, as they can take it back very soon.  With own stay and investment distribution of 50/50, what do you think the situation is now ?
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See above is why one should not be buying or investing. Thinking of too much to fit in to make money somemore is rediculous when knowing cannot tolerate up and down also want to join the party. DIBS should gone long time and now real player can earn some decent money.

tangibee
post Dec 17 2013, 09:10 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 17 2013, 08:41 AM)
Too much negative thought, here some positive.  rclxms.gif

http://www.creonline.com/real-estate-bubbl...of-hot-air.html

So BBB Gala continue.  rclxm9.gif
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Good read with simple logic101
tangibee
post Dec 17 2013, 03:26 PM

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[quote=Balrog,Dec 17 2013, 12:19 PM]
Good read with simple logic101
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[/quote]

Aiyo, this is an article from before US bubble burst. At that time there are a lot of bubble deniers, as to be expected (otherwise there would not have been a bubble in the first place!).

The author he criticized in the article, Robert Shiller - "Irrational Exuberance", turned out to be correct about the US property market. The second edition of the book in 2005 basically said the US bubble will burst soon (by looking at things such as ratio of median house price to median income). In 2006 bubble in the US did burst as we all know. By the way, Robert Shiller won the Nobel Prize for Economics this year.
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[/quote]

aiyo that is intro 101 with simple logic101, use your judgement la whether applicable to you or not. What theory people read or choose to believe in and how they practice it or oppose it is subject to their own portfolio. Even if a perfect guide existed and is given to a screwed up person, it is worthless anyway.


tangibee
post Dec 18 2013, 10:32 PM

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BLR gonna (?)

http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/artic...-0-5-next-year/
tangibee
post Dec 19 2013, 08:44 AM

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Only those worst prop location and high ticket will hit the auction broadcast, better ones taken before real auction.
tangibee
post Dec 20 2013, 09:12 AM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Dec 20 2013, 09:10 AM)
And then he is asking the market to crash so that he has company ?

Quite ridiculous logic.
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+1

LOL
tangibee
post Dec 28 2013, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 28 2013, 09:25 AM)

On a different note can a average urban earning 6200 affort a average KL property at 620000 ??
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If you are earning 6200 p.a.(??), normally you dont expect yourself to go for 620000 prop. Simple, stay where you are and work harder. If 6200/mo then no prob. Sap sap sui.
tangibee
post Dec 28 2013, 10:12 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 28 2013, 09:25 AM)
On a different note can a average urban earning 6200 affort a average KL property at 620000 ??
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lol

This post has been edited by tangibee: Dec 28 2013, 10:14 AM
tangibee
post Dec 28 2013, 10:13 AM

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QUOTE(jolokia @ Dec 28 2013, 09:25 AM)

On a different note can a average urban earning 6200 affort a average KL property at 620000 ??
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If you are earning 6200 p.a.(??), normally you dont expect yourself to go for 620000 prop. Simple, stay where you are and work harder. If 6200/mo then no prob. Sap sap sui.

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