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 Personal Financial Management V3, It's all about managing your $$$

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Showtime747
post Apr 15 2014, 08:25 AM

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Very often we hear people say putting money in FD is useless because of inflation that will eat you up alive

Yesterday I was talking to my elder brother, who has retired and has tonnes of money in FD. He is a very risk aversed guy, so the bulk of his money is in FD. I asked him the above question.

He told me FD is not actually that bad. Those who say FD cannot cover inflation is not entirely accurate. He said that income doesn't equal to expense. So if your FD principal is big enough, you can still beat inflation in absolute amount. I run a simple scenario on his theory :

FD - 3.5%, Inflation - 3.5%, Putting FD is worse off ?

He has FD for eg. RM1.2m as principal. Each year he makes RM42k = RM3.5k pm

His expense is for eg. RM2k pm = RM24k pa. So, he still has RM1.5k left over to roll into FD. While the price of goods increases every year, his income also increases. Repeat it over 20 years, he still has positive RM3.5k yearly or ~RM300 pm extra to cover his inflated expenses. And his FD principal has grown into RM1.46m

So, the trick is to have a FD principal that is large enough, and it still can cover inflation. Comparing % may be just the trick of financial planners who try to convince you to buy their products tongue.gif




Showtime747
post Apr 15 2014, 03:05 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Apr 15 2014, 08:56 AM)
Agree in principle.
However, if the same $1.2M was asset allocated to equities & fixed income, say 50% 50%,
and a long term CAGR of say 7%pa (prudent enough?)
with the same spending pattern,
your bro would be able to reinvest even more, thus grow even more (long term lar - dont say crash next year tongue.gif)

Personally - for my retirement, i'm aiming to spend 50% of my investment & trading generated income, reinvest the other 50%.
Technically, i should be able to spend 3%pa to 4%pa of my total assets in investments & trading, reinvesting 3%pa to 4%pa - leaving something behind for future generations + rebuilding/healing of our planet

Just a thought  notworthy.gif
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Yes, he would have achieved higher returns if he goes into other investment. But he is not willing to take risk, and I suspect he is lazy too tongue.gif

For me, a 5% return after tax will make me happy
Showtime747
post Apr 15 2014, 03:19 PM

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QUOTE(kaiserwulf @ Apr 15 2014, 11:30 AM)
Works fine in other countries... malaysia true inflation is more than 3.5% so effectively as long as his real return is -% he still rugi.

Yes truly get what you mean if the capital is big... even 0.5% of real return on RM 2 mil = RM10k
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Inflation worst hit product I suspect must be property. He already retired and has a house fully paid. He even has holiday homes in cameron highlands and UK. So he is not buying any more properties. I think a well planned retired people worry about housing last. So the biggest expense is taken care of

Second biggest spending is cars. The price is quite stable over the last 15 years. And I think car price may come down if FTA is really put into reality. So, this one is also quite taken care of. Furthermore, retired people may not change car as often. So the 2nd biggest expense is also taken care of.

Education for children is another big expenses. But his children has gone through that and has been working for quite sometime.

Then it would be other expenses like food, clothing, holidays, household which I think the prices increase close to the inflation rates. Or for holidays, it is actually cheaper as competition between the airlines is fierce.

So, I think for retired people, FD is still one of the safer bet. But for young people, FD is damn hard to beat inflation unless he has a very big sum in FD
Showtime747
post Apr 15 2014, 03:30 PM

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QUOTE(bearbear @ Apr 15 2014, 11:42 AM)
Well it is sufficient to support his life style but that doesn't mean he is beating the inflation. best china-man style is to see how much your average wan tan mee price has gone up. smile.gif

Don't get me wrong, I am conservative as well when it comes to $.
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You are correct. Nobody will beat or avoid inflation.

Wanton mee during my school time in the early 80s is about RM2.00. Now it has increased to RM5.00. ~250% in about 30 years
Showtime747
post Apr 15 2014, 03:58 PM

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QUOTE(bearbear @ Apr 15 2014, 03:40 PM)
Didn't know he is in that retirement stage, he should be able to use more then considering that the monthly usage is based on retaining the principal money. With a certain reduction of that principal amount (assuming he is not gonna leave any to his children) he can live a comfortable life. smile.gif
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Ya, he has much more. The eg. I put up there is just to illustrate tongue.gif

He is quite comfortable, maybe because of that he chose low risk low return investment
Showtime747
post Apr 15 2014, 04:29 PM

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QUOTE(kaiserwulf @ Apr 15 2014, 04:21 PM)
I dont think you get me.

Lets go again... FD for him can nego good rate say 3.5%.

What do you think the Msian inflation rate is?

sample for you- http://invest-made-easy.blogspot.com/2013/...-inflation.html

I'll respond to you once you get the true inflation rate right.
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Wah ! You calculate inflation rate without the subsidy ? But subsidy is still there. You have info all subsidy will be taken away soon ?

Looking forward to your response notworthy.gif
Showtime747
post Apr 15 2014, 09:59 PM

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QUOTE(kaiserwulf @ Apr 15 2014, 08:06 PM)
Thanks. That said, I'll wait for others to come explain to you about inflation...

in any case negative real value will erode savings.
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Alamak....anti-climax.....

Why want to wait for others ?
Showtime747
post Apr 15 2014, 11:17 PM

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QUOTE(adamhzm90 @ Apr 15 2014, 11:05 PM)
Hi guys..newbie here.. smile.gif
im just a fresh graduate (age 23) with great concern about my financial future..
my current work after epf can get roughly rm2250 per month..therefore..

im planning to save at least rm1000 per month..
for my education loan, rm250,
parents rm300,
motorcycle oil and lunch rm200(work expense).not planning to buy car at the moment. can use family car.
so that gives me a balance of rm500 to spend for shopping and entertainment.

i currently have rm5k in my asb account.
so the saving of 1k per month will be deposit into this account.
do u guys think that asb provides a good financial security?
or do u guys have any other suggestion for any investment?as money always depreciates in value..(gold maybe?)
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Good financial planning with >40% of net income as savings thumbup.gif

Don't think too much now. ASB is the best for you. Put everything in there. Then continue to read LYN and learn different type of investment. When you are comfortable with other investment which you think you can beat ASB, then only start invest
Showtime747
post Apr 15 2014, 11:27 PM

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QUOTE(howszat @ Apr 15 2014, 11:16 PM)
Actually, it's not. It's the most precise comparison that they (financial planners) or anyone else can come up with that is not a trick.

Because it's pure and simple comparison between incoming (FD) and outgoing (inflation) differences. If outgoing > incoming, that's negative. Both in terms of arithmetic and accounting.

Whereas you brought up numerous other side issues like risk-appetite, accumulated wealth, required/essential expenses and personal circumstances to cloud the matter further.

For example, if you spend zero, the impact of inflation on you is zero.

It doesn't mean the impact of inflation is zero, if you get the drift?
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No dispute thumbup.gif

Actually everyone has different expectation and needs. Its just that my bro is risk averse. Hence his choice is clear.

To tell him that FD interest can't beat inflation is not accurate too, because of his circumstances. The statement that is so regularly brought up "inflation will eats up your FD interest" also does not apply to every circumstances. So, depends on one's needs, FD is not always a bad choice even if taking inflation into account
Showtime747
post Apr 16 2014, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(td00164306 @ Apr 16 2014, 03:02 PM)
Essentially the buying power of your money is ever decreasing if you can't beat the inflation regardlessly you spend it or not.

You can live until your last breath with 10 millions today in FD @ 3.5%; but by that time the same 10 millions probably can't buy you the equal value of items. Make sense?
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Please educate me how much % return is enough to beat inflation notworthy.gif
Showtime747
post Apr 16 2014, 05:31 PM

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QUOTE(td00164306 @ Apr 16 2014, 04:59 PM)
No idea. But we can always used what is published by the authority as a guiding principle.

We should make our investment decision based on return vs risk. One should not forced "Beat the inflation" to be in their investment objectives if they certainly can't take that corresponding level of risk. Inflation is completely out of consideration when I am making a decision to invest into something.
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But there are "financial planners" who use inflation as a yardstick to say FD is not a good investment. In a way, they try to promote their product by saying FD is bad. Are they wrong ?
Showtime747
post Apr 16 2014, 06:05 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Apr 16 2014, 05:42 PM)
each vehicle has its own usage, there is to outright BAD investment or holding vehicle.
any "financial planners" that uses ABSOLUTES give themselves away as ConSultans  biggrin.gif
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QUOTE(td00164306 @ Apr 16 2014, 06:01 PM)
They may be correct in the sense that, FD is going to be outcast by Inflation, but, that should not be the sole reason for you not to put money in FD. Yeah their product give you 20% return but so what if the risk is equally high and you can't afford to lose this amount of money (maybe saving for retirement/children education)?

Again I would like to reiterate my point that one should choose the investment vehicle based on their objective (% of return) and risk profile. If one day inflation also outcast their whatever product, then wouldn't it be equally stupid to invest in their product?

Remember, these whatever financial planner could knows nothing about financial planning. They are just some salesman who tends to over promise. When they say their product going to give you certain % of return, it is appropriate to ask what is the basis and is this written black & white or is only their thought/assumption based on past performance of the product.

Past performance can be used as a benchmark but is never to promise the equal amount of return in the future.
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Showtime747
post Apr 16 2014, 08:39 PM

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QUOTE(kaiserwulf @ Apr 16 2014, 08:16 PM)
Showtime747... you got your answer de smile.gif
The last line about authority... works pretty well in well developed countries. Thats why I never questioned your brother's risk appetite, or his financial success in accumulating assets etc... His risk adverse strat works perfectly when the real return is positive (even though its small in percentage- his high networth offsets it).

In Msia... I think we should be smarter than just accepting the govt's facts on inflation.

(and pretty much everything else)... saving since young to buy diamond rings? Saving RM3k EACH DAY since birth?

Inflation is easily high possibility more than 3.5%. Wongmunkeong help me out if showtime still blur k?
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No I didn't get your answer. Your inflation without subsidy is quite peculiar. I am blur blur and I prefer to get answer from the house's mouth instead of wong seafood tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Apr 16 2014, 09:21 PM

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QUOTE(kaiserwulf @ Apr 16 2014, 08:51 PM)
Msia inflation is currently more than Malaysian FD. Thats all.

Contrary to what the govt tells you.
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Oh...ok smile.gif
Showtime747
post Apr 17 2014, 01:48 PM

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QUOTE(td00164306 @ Apr 17 2014, 12:03 PM)
That is the answer to the question of "Can FD beats the inflation?"

If your question is about "Should I still put money in FD? Do I look stupid if I do that?", then it has to be answered differently.
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I can't resist but to ask you....

Should I still put money in FD? Do I look stupid if I do that ?

tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Apr 17 2014, 04:39 PM

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QUOTE(td00164306 @ Apr 17 2014, 03:32 PM)
There is no straightforward answer my friend, but let me try to make it simple for you.

Say if you have RM 200,000.

You probably want to keep 25% in blue-chips such as major O&G firm, local banks, nestle and etc. Then you probably want to rip some money from the REIT market, say another 25%. Then you say to yourself, "I think I am comfortable to expose half of my money to risk, where should I put the remaining 50% then?". Options for you could be insurance, FD, bond funds or just continue to let them rot in your saving account.

And all these are influenced by factors such as what is your current age, your next-5-year plan and etc. There isn't a single answer that is suitable for everybody and yet those salesman are selling the same product pitching in the same tone to everyone. Screw them.

Oh ya, if you are a Malay, try ASB and ASB2. To me those are no brainers unless you think Msia government is going bankrupt soon.

If you start off investing thinking that investment can makes you a millionaire in 1 year, then my advice is you better put your money in FD. Always start small cause we all learn from mistakes. It is very dangerous if you don't know much and yet you are greedy.

Read more investment related materials, build your guiding principles and investment style and follow it through and adjust as you go along.

Oh ya, while you are learning, it is not a bad option to put your money in FD first. No matter how, it is better than our ordinary saving account.
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@ kaiserwulf and td00164306

Was pulling your leg, didn't know you guys wrote so lengthy. Anyway, thumbup.gif
Showtime747
post Jun 21 2014, 06:48 AM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Jun 20 2014, 02:29 PM)
personal inflation:
one's total spending increase yoy (personal interpretation for focused effectiveness)
VS
one's spending increase on same items yoy (technically correct)

similar to the "argument" on net worth:
total assets minus total liabilities (technically correct)
Vs
total REAL assets (ignoring doodads that dont make $ AND depreciates AND cost $ to keep like personal cars, bikes, etc.) minus total liabilities (personal interpretation for focused effectiveness)

Those that uses personal interpretations (like me tongue.gif) should lar acknowledge the "technically correct" versions as well lor since that is "universal" gua.
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Showtime747
post Jun 21 2014, 01:46 PM

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Wong seafood tongue.gif

Just in case you still don't know our bro tikaram, everywhere he goes he sure quarrel with people. He normally post in Property Talk. Just go there and you will find his post. When moderators like b00n and cherroy warned and banned him, he will pick on them every time he got the chance. If I am the moderator I also doh.gif So, I always have fun "discussing" stuff with him. Just happy happy talking to him with some kaka because his comment is also like kaka. No need serious with him one tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Jun 21 2014, 01:51 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Jun 21 2014, 01:48 PM)
ah.. so he's also a "special needs" baka.. oops.. sorry bakas, insulted bakas.
ok - it's on my ignore list, same with the other twit on retirement.

Thanks for the heads-up Showtime  notworthy.gif
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Don't ignore him. He is fun when you need to pass your time. He is one of my favourite forummer in LYN. Especially his mood no good (like today) he will spend time entertaining us tongue.gif
Showtime747
post Jun 21 2014, 02:02 PM

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QUOTE(wongmunkeong @ Jun 21 2014, 01:54 PM)
i've better things to do with my time - for my kids, family, friends and fellow forumers asking about Excel and stuff, of which i still owe a few here heheh sweat.gif.

heck, even cleaning drain scum with my bare hands is preferable than letting garbage writing that it wrote into my brain, searing my eyeballs and dislocating logic.
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Just to let you know your postings are always useful to read. At the same time, you are open minded and ready to accept others' opinions. I have learned a lot from you notworthy.gif

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