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Investment MOVE TO COOL OFF PROPERTY INDUSTRY COULD BACKFIRE, None of the Asian countries had success

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TSaccetera
post Aug 11 2013, 11:33 PM

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Fact 1 >>> Salaries are not rising in tandem with cost of living + appreciation of new property launches. For example, my accouting industry only gives minimum token increment every year and nowadays MNCs under shared services will CAP all annual bonus to 2 or 3 months only maximum. And promotion is super intense as almost everyone especially ladies are studying accounting/finance.

Fact 2 >>> Affordable housing are not sufficiently provided, especially the middle market (PR1MA market) that will not opt for PPR/SPNB/PKNS.

Fact 3 >>> Malaysians have to make Car Purchases as priority because the need to commute to work when public transportation system is not feasible, non-existence or poor service and poor coverage and for security reasons.



QUOTE(LCL01 @ Aug 11 2013, 10:51 PM)
That's because u haven't learn the tricks to play the game
*
We can't be talking about one or two people out of hundreds of people.

This post has been edited by accetera: Aug 11 2013, 11:37 PM
twincharger07
post Aug 12 2013, 12:10 AM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Aug 11 2013, 11:33 PM)
Fact 1 >>> Salaries are not rising in tandem with cost of living + appreciation of new property launches. For example, my accouting industry only gives minimum token increment every year and nowadays MNCs under shared services will CAP all annual bonus to 2 or 3 months only maximum. And promotion is super intense as almost everyone especially ladies are studying accounting/finance.

Fact 2 >>> Affordable housing are not sufficiently provided, especially the middle market (PR1MA market) that will not opt for PPR/SPNB/PKNS.

Fact 3 >>> Malaysians have to make Car Purchases as priority because the need to commute to work when public transportation system is not feasible, non-existence or poor service and poor coverage and for security reasons.

We can't be talking about one or two people out of hundreds of people.
*
agree with certain points especially point 3..

lets look at neighboring country.. spore..
http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/featu...ggling-singles/

Singaporeans are already feeling the heat of rising prop price to 5.5 times of annual salary..
Having a car is not as mandatory like malaysian due to good public transport.. a family just need 1 car and dont drive that often, thus ERP and petrol is not a heavy burden for ordinary folks..
Income tax is lower..
borrowing interest rate is lower than us by half..
standard of living dollar to dollar comparison, they are much lower than us..
because of their strong currency, buying imported brands are cheaper.. branded electrical appliances and branded clothing are cheaper for them base on their earning power..
However, they are already feeling the burden of escalation property price..

for us msian.. i respect..
owning a myvi, or saga seems to be normal at young age.. 1 family has few cars..
dealing with escalation of toll and petrol price..
higher income tax..
higher interest rates, but we have advantage of longer tenure.. still end with paying more debts..
cost of living really escalating.. dollar to dollar, cost of living out pace our salary..
due to our lower currency value, we are buying a lot of things more expensive base on our earning power..
and yet our price of property 5 or 6 times higher than annual salary..

when singaporean are mourning on high property price, they should see we average msian are even shittier, and we have no HDB flats.. lol

ost1007
post Aug 12 2013, 12:20 AM

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Well said..im owning a house and im waiting for right time to grab another 1. I believe property blooming will happen in Malaysia soon.
Minolta
post Aug 12 2013, 10:19 AM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Aug 11 2013, 05:53 PM)
Moves to cap property prices could backfire
August 10, 2013- Featured, Investment.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT by 'Malaysia Condo King' Datuk Alan Tong Kok Mau | feedback@fiabci-asiapacific.com
http://www.starproperty.my/index.php/artic...could-backfire/
β€˜Cooling off’ measures choke supply



MALAYSIA

In our home country, the Government has also introduced a number of β€œcooling off” measures.


In Malaysia, according to NAPIC, there is only a supply of about [B]100,000 new houses a year throughout Malaysia, while the demand in Greater KL alone is projected to be an additional one million units if Pemandu achieves its target of increasing the population from six million to 10 million by 2020. [/b]



Property developer and group chairman of Bukit Kiara Properties Datuk Alan Tong is also FIABCI Asia-Pacific regional secretariat chairman.
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I was reading that in Hong Kong, where the new condo price is about RM10000/sf, the government is gonna create about 50,000 new homes....over a 10 year period! Malaysia 100,000 new homes in a year! With maybe 1/2 of that in Klang Valley. Population numbers and economy comparison asides, if I were a betting man, its obvious where to buy should one have the money......
37 Exposures
post Aug 12 2013, 11:27 AM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Aug 11 2013, 11:33 PM)
Fact 1 >>> Salaries are not rising in tandem with cost of living + appreciation of new property launches. For example, my accouting industry only gives minimum token increment every year and nowadays MNCs under shared services will CAP all annual bonus to 2 or 3 months only maximum. And promotion is super intense as almost everyone especially ladies are studying accounting/finance.

Fact 2 >>> Affordable housing are not sufficiently provided, especially the middle market (PR1MA market) that will not opt for PPR/SPNB/PKNS.

Fact 3 >>> Malaysians have to make Car Purchases as priority because the need to commute to work when public transportation system is not feasible, non-existence or poor service and poor coverage and for security reasons.

We can't be talking about one or two people out of hundreds of people.
*
Friend, 20yrs++ before, Civil engineer salary RM2000++, how about fresh grad now? It's not the property too expensive, it's just our salary/currency to low!

This post has been edited by 37 Exposures: Aug 12 2013, 11:29 AM
Mikken
post Aug 12 2013, 11:48 AM

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QUOTE(Minolta @ Aug 12 2013, 11:19 AM)
I was reading that in Hong Kong, where the new condo price is about RM10000/sf, the government is gonna create about 50,000 new homes....over a 10 year period! Malaysia 100,000 new homes in a year! With maybe 1/2 of that in Klang Valley. Population numbers and economy comparison asides, if I were a betting man, its obvious where to buy should one have the money......
*
Based on World Bank's data - the population growth in HK and Malaysia from 2010 to 2020.

HK:
2010: 7.068 mil
2020: 7.75 mil

Malaysia:
2010: 28.4 mil
2020: 32.97 mil

HK population growth of 682k vs Malaysia growth of 4.57 mil.

HK's planned supply of 450k within the next 10 years already take into account most of the population growth (assuming 2-3 people per household). Pls read the link below - the projected supply is 450k over the next 10 year and not 50k.



http://www.scmp.com/business/article/12774...ge-rates-double

http://www.news.gov.hk/en/categories/infra...20_134804.shtml

This post has been edited by Mikken: Aug 12 2013, 11:52 AM
TSaccetera
post Aug 12 2013, 12:10 PM

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Cannot compare with HK and SG.

These 2 markets are very open market and alot alot of Foreign Tycoons That Become Residents, Working High Income Expats as well as Skilled Blue Collar Resident Expats.

Though Malaysia's future looks bright simply on demographics, and yes, our median population age and birth rate are amongst the youngest and best in ASEAN, we do not know whether how affordable could properties become for the mass of our population. Looking at our salary levels, I doubt most of the 4mil freshies who migrate to Klang Valley to work could even afford a 500 sf apartment in coming years.

At the same time, those who are working as Managers and those seeking for Promotions in coming years will become those people who are able to afford the New Projects. But how many are there who able to afford?

This post has been edited by accetera: Aug 12 2013, 12:11 PM
katijar
post Aug 12 2013, 12:13 PM

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if property keep going up, wealth gap will be huge ... good or not?
KOHTT
post Aug 12 2013, 12:52 PM

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What Allan Tong said about the HK property is correct or not? Or it is part of the property developers' counter arguments that our government should not impose any further measurement s to prevent property price increase....see the following articles:


http://www.themalaymailonline.com/money/ar...-enters-ice-age

.............For the second quarter, overall home transactions dropped to 11,443, the lowest quarterly sales since 1996, according to real estate services company Colliers International.

Industry analysts now expect residential prices to drop between 5 and 15 per cent by the end of this year.
.............


TSaccetera
post Aug 12 2013, 01:04 PM

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I think he meant private properties as these are measured by Knight Frank. The supply dropped and prices still increase... but could drop moving forward.
KLsooner
post Aug 12 2013, 01:45 PM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Aug 12 2013, 12:10 PM)
Cannot compare with HK and SG.

These 2 markets are very open market and alot alot of Foreign Tycoons That Become Residents, Working High Income Expats as well as Skilled Blue Collar Resident Expats.

Though Malaysia's future looks bright simply on demographics, and yes, our median population age and birth rate are amongst the youngest and best in ASEAN, we do not know whether how affordable could properties become for the mass of our population. Looking at our salary levels, I doubt most of the 4mil freshies who migrate to Klang Valley to work could even afford a 500 sf apartment in coming years.

At the same time, those who are working as Managers and those seeking for Promotions in coming years will become those people who are able to afford the New Projects. But how many are there who able to afford?
*
I strongly agree with your statement of "cannot compare with HK and SG".

Both HK and SG have land scarcity issue and the property market is highly regulated. Whatever curbing measure the government impose, it will not affect the market like what Ah Tong highlighted, to some extent, I feel he is over eXXXXagerating the situation. When we refer to HK and SG property market, we are generally refering to 50% of HK and 15% 0f SG private market. Most of the property hikes were caused by the inrush of new cash rich emigrants from mainland China. Most of the low and middle income group stay in the government public houses aka HDB in SG.

It is not a fair comparison to Msia market if the data is extracted from the private market of the two high income city states. It is basically comparying high income elite group to general public.

In china, similarly data from Shanghai and Beijing (which contributed the most to the transaction data base) are somehow a regulated market in a different manner. After the ridiculous property curb by communist party in 2009, most of the new development are transacted by the ultra rich and ultra powerful (political) group of people. Ah Tong intentionaly or selectively neglected the fact that the cradle city of China private entrepreneur Wenzhou is suffering a whopping 40% drop in price in 2012/13 and yet to have sign of bottom out; yet to mention the ghost city in Bayonnao, kangbashi, Xin Zheng city, Erenhot and etc.

Ah Tong is a developer, what else can you expect coming out from his mouth? same like what you listen from property agents, conflict of interest la.

This post has been edited by KLsooner: Aug 12 2013, 01:50 PM
twincharger07
post Aug 12 2013, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(LCL01 @ Aug 12 2013, 09:05 AM)
do u think with ur age u can own more than 1 house in Singapore? give and take lah bro.
*
I dont know what you are talking about..
I am talking about affordability, not talking about buying more than 1 house..
twincharger07
post Aug 12 2013, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(KLsooner @ Aug 12 2013, 01:45 PM)
I strongly agree with your statement of "cannot compare with HK and SG".

Both HK and SG have land scarcity issue and the property market is highly regulated. Whatever curbing measure the government impose, it will not affect the market like what Ah Tong highlighted, to some extent, I feel he is over eXXXXagerating the situation. When we refer to HK and SG property market, we are generally refering to 50% of HK and 15% 0f SG private market. Most of the property hikes were caused by the inrush of new cash rich emigrants from mainland China. Most of the low and middle income group stay in the government public houses aka HDB in SG.

It is not a fair comparison to Msia market if the data is extracted from the private market of the two high income city states. It is basically comparying high income elite group to general public.

In china, similarly data from Shanghai and Beijing (which contributed the most to the transaction data base) are somehow a regulated market in a different manner. After the ridiculous property curb by communist party in 2009, most of the new development are transacted by the ultra rich and ultra powerful (political) group of people. Ah Tong intentionaly or selectively neglected the fact that the cradle city of China private entrepreneur Wenzhou is suffering a whopping 40% drop in price in 2012/13 and yet to have sign of bottom out; yet to mention the ghost city in Bayonnao, kangbashi, Xin Zheng city, Erenhot and etc.

Ah Tong is a developer, what else can you expect coming out from his mouth? same like what you listen from property agents, conflict of interest la.
*
that is the irony..

SG land is limited, and houses are 5 times higher than their annual salary..

but bolehland, land is abundance.. still houses are 5 times higher than our annual salary..

This post has been edited by twincharger07: Aug 12 2013, 01:54 PM
Yamma
post Aug 12 2013, 01:59 PM

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the real durian eater will be benefited when durian buyer buy bulk from planter with intention to keep it to sell at higher price, but have to let go cheap since can't keep it for long.
puchongite
post Aug 12 2013, 02:13 PM

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QUOTE(Yamma @ Aug 12 2013, 01:59 PM)
the real durian eater will be benefited when durian buyer buy bulk from planter with intention to keep it to sell at higher price, but have to let go cheap since can't keep it for long.
*
Not only happening to secondary market.

Even developers themselves are doing that. They sell expensive, not all goods are sold. They hold. If they sold > 70% of their goods, the profit they make should be enough for them to hold 30% of the unsold units.

So far so good, they are doing pretty well. But their stock are pretty huge too.
Yamma
post Aug 12 2013, 02:29 PM

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QUOTE(puchongite @ Aug 12 2013, 02:13 PM)
Not only happening to secondary market.

Even developers themselves are doing that. They sell expensive, not all goods are sold. They hold. If they sold > 70% of their goods, the profit they make should be enough for them to hold 30% of the unsold units.

So far so good, they are doing pretty well. But their stock are pretty huge too.
*
back to durian thingy.. so far all planter still in the market. less supply of durian will only happen after durian hit lowest price (i cant remember when, but it happen years back when durian price hit RM1 each - cheapo one since the example using the cheap one also) due to oversupply which make planter change to other business.
suadrif
post Aug 12 2013, 03:24 PM

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QUOTE(LCL01 @ Aug 12 2013, 02:10 PM)
u got the point. so work hard, and earn more.
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+1
nowadays people must have at least two source of income in order to maintain their pocket
hondaracer
post Aug 16 2013, 10:21 AM

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QUOTE(Yamma @ Aug 12 2013, 01:59 PM)
the real durian eater will be benefited when durian buyer buy bulk from planter with intention to keep it to sell at higher price, but have to let go cheap since can't keep it for long.
*
🎯🎯🎯

Spot On. Good one...
hondaracer
post Aug 16 2013, 10:49 AM

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We need more datapoints from all parties for public dissemination and debate.

What is the gov doing about about the property situation??? All the ad and promises during GE13, but no further action or lack of publicity?

Why are there no concrete timeline for PR1MA?

What happens when "affordable and quality homes" are made available to first time home-owner citizens by gov?

Happy citizens?? Developers, happy??

I believe 5 years is sufficient time to build affordable and quality properties if they are really serious, do we still need more cooling measures? Ask Mr Alan, there is no prize for guessing his answers 😎, I sure he will provide datapoints too πŸ“ŠπŸ“ˆπŸ“‰.

What is my view? It should be win win for both the first time home buyers and property investors.

BN, why are we waiting?






hondaracer
post Aug 16 2013, 10:49 AM

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We need more datapoints from all parties for public dissemination and debate.

What is the gov doing about about the property situation??? All the ad and promises during GE13, but no further action or lack of publicity?

Why are there no concrete timeline for PR1MA?

What happens when "affordable and quality homes" are made available to first time home-owner citizens by gov?

Happy citizens?? Developers, happy??

I believe 5 years is sufficient time to build affordable and quality properties if they are really serious, do we still need more cooling measures? Ask Mr Alan, there is no prize for guessing his answers 😎, I sure he will provide datapoints too πŸ“ŠπŸ“ˆπŸ“‰.

What is my view? It should be win win for both the first time home buyers and property investors.

BN, why are we waiting?







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