MAYBANK Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/02/28/ma...is-28-feb-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
  – 5Y DCF: 10.26 – 11.68 (MOS: 5% – 16%)
  – Absolute PE: 12.94 – 13.81 (MOS: 24% – 29%)
  – I think 11.6-12.9 is reasonable fair value range for MAYBANK. Thus, MAYBANK is slightly undervalued.
- MAYBANK seems to be fairly optimistic over FY14 outlook with tall targets of 13% growth in both loans and deposits. Besides, they also maintain its ROE target at 15%. In my opinion, after studied the risks and growth drivers, this is a realistic target.
- Market Timing:
  – EY%: buy below 10.19, sell above 12.18
- I will wait for bullish reversal of the down channel, or MAYBANK formed a new strong support. Then, I will accumulate MAYBANK a bit without increasing my average price too much.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (27 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1550825

At the time of writing, I owned shares of MAYBANK.

KMLOONG Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/28/km...is-28-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
  – 5-Y DCF – 3.47 – 3.87
    – Buy under: 2.84 – 3.16 (MOS: 21% – 29%)
  – EY% – Buy below 2.47, sell above 3.31
  – In my opinion, 3.4 – 3.8 is fair value range for KMLOONG. KMLOONG is currently undervalued.
- The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. In a worst case scenario, KMLOONG, a net cash company with a low cost of production and an experienced management team would be able to withstand the turbulence and even take up expansion opportunities.
- Going forward, I expect KMLOONG to perform better in FY15 as it plans to improve production, while benefiting from favourable palm oil prices.
- Recently, I have purchased KMLOONG at 2.8, and then 2.74.

Latest Financial – Q4 2014 Financial Report (27 Mar 2013) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1577605

At the time of writing, I owned shares of KMLOONG.

PADINI Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/03/28/pa...is-28-mar-2014/

My View:-

- Fair value/Marketing Timing
  – 5Y DCF: 2.98 – 3.38
    – Buy under: 2.51 – 2.85 (MOS: 37% – 45%)
  – EY%: Buy under 2.00, sell above 2.80
- Looks like PADINI is currently undervalued and quite attrative.
- New 3 Brands Outlet stores and a Padini Concept store were opened in the current financial year. In the coming months, there are plans to add another 3 Brands Outlet stores and another 2 Padini Concept stores which would add upwards of 90k sq ft of retail floor space to >800k sq ft. In addition to the new store openings, we are positive on the changes made to merchandise development and pricing strategies, which would allow PADINI to capitalise on the Visit Malaysia Year 2014.
  – Five out of the nine new stores in FY14 are located in Miri, Seremban and Langkawi. They will provide the group with new revenue stream from the less competitive markets in the second tier cities.
- Based on the growth analysis, PADINI has great potential to have higher net profit and owner earnings in FY14.
- I will consider to buy PADINI. May be my wife will buy it.

Latest Financial – Q2 2014 Financial Report (26 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1549673

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of PADINI.

This study is created specifically for educational purposes only where I will use it on a special occasion later. I may not update analysis of this stock in the future.

KLK Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/14/kl...is-14-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair values:
  – EY% – Buy below 16.01, sell above 24.68
  – In my opinion, KLK is fully valued.
- The CPO price moves in a cyclical manner. KLK earnings will improve in the next few years.
- KLK’s current price is at a premium due to the young age of the group’s oil palm trees. Average age of KLK’s oil palm trees is 11 years old as young trees in Indonesia compensate for the older trees in Sabah.
- In longer term, KLK’s outlook is positive as earnings impact will likely be from FY18 onwards. Note that oil palm trees usually start bearing fruits from the 3rd year onwards and the field preparation work may take up to one year.
- Based on Q1 2014 performance, revenue, net profit and FCF increased 7.5%, 12.2%, and 97% respectively by comparing to Q1 2013 results.
- I believe that KLK is in good position to achieve better result in FY14.

Latest Financial – Q4 2013 Financial Report (19 Feb 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1542173

At the time of writing, I did not own shares of KLK.

I think UTDPLT is at better position.

ALLIANZ Analysis:-

http://lcchong.wordpress.com/2014/05/29/al...is-29-may-2014/

My View:-

- Fair Value/Market Timing
  – 5Y DCF: 25.85 – 29.53 (MOS: 60% – 65%)
  – Absolute EY%: Buy under 9.12, sell above 11.10 (MOS: 6.32%)
  – ALLIANZ is undervalued in long term.
- I think MH370 incident will only give negative impact to ALLIANZ in short term. So far, ALLIANZ only identified 5 of the passengers are their client.
  – For some people, this is a risk, but I view this as an good opportunity.
- ALLIANZ’s dividend payout is extremely low, so never expect good dividend from them. Reasons:
  – High capital or surplus retained due to nature of industry
  – Stringent regulatory requirement to protect policyholders’ interest
  – Managing stringent capital buffer to withstand adverse or unfavorable experience
- Unlike LPI (general insurance and financing on leases), ALLIANZ is heavily dependence on single segment: motor insurance; and also dependence on agent for life insurance. ALLIANZ requires high capital to grow distribution capabilities, and fund new business growth.
- Balance float of outstanding shares is very low: 4.20%.
- My wife and I are considering to buy ALLIANZ with our joint account, while my wife already owned shares of LPI.
- References:
  – https://www.allianz.com.my/web/lna/10074/10064/2014#
  – http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/47700.jsp
- I will continue accumulate ALLIANZ along the way.

Latest Financial – Q1 2014 Financial Report (28 May 2014) http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed...cements/1637065

At the time of writing, I owned shares of ALLIANZ.