QUOTE(cherroy @ Aug 14 2013, 06:44 PM)
From about 20 years + experience in the market, I only knew most prediction/expectation gone wrong one.
And the more people predict it or expect it to happen, the least it can happen.
Nobody or little people predicted 1997 Asian financial crisis, prior before 1996.
Little people expect dotcom bubble burst in big way. I still remembered many said, if your company has no website, you have no future at that time. I was puzzled how can?
In the future everything online, ya, more online facilities, but still we go to supermarket to buy groceries after rise of dotcom decade ago.
Lot of dotcom company went burst instead of conventional old type business.
Little expect 2008 global financial crisis as well.
So the more people talk about, predict/expect, the least change it may happen.
Those "shock", "crash" in the market, always come in a surprise way.
Same with stocks, the more people rush into the same stocks, the higher risk of it crashing down afterwards.
See how nobody interested in reit few years ago.
But now a lot of people interested in reit, and reit crashing down.
In other world, mass decision a lot of time was at the wrong end one. At least from my observation/experience.
Just my lousy conclusion based on experience.

Thanks for sharing.
Today received panamy's annual report, its 5-yrs statistic data on various prospects are steady. I regret selling half of my holding early this year when Japan economy in big trouble, although I know Panamy not so related to its parent company. This speculation move that had no fundamental backup was one of the mistakes I made. I thought I could buy back at lower price. 5% cheaper? Not happy. 8%? Not happy. Oops, sorry, it rebounds. This mistake reduce my profit by 20% on those sold stake. Sometimes, being "too smart" is really not a good thing.
Now, my speculating trading based on this. I use the cash holding to play short trading game. ie, if I plan to buy $100k on a stock, anything exceed that amount will consider trading game by using the cash holding portion. Say I may buy $110k, but that exceeding 10k is for short term trading purpose.
Speaking of REIT. My reits holding from paper profit of 16% into 2% today. In addition to the dividend received while holding them (1-3 years) roughly 10% in total I guess.
Now I learn REIT is not "that defensive". I'm planning to re-balance my profile to move some reits into other high yield stocks such as Panamy. After dividend ex, panamy may fall sharply in next 2-3 months, that would be good chance to accumulate.