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 V11 - Property Prices Discussion, Intelligent debates only pls

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terryble
post Jun 10 2013, 12:34 AM

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QUOTE(icemanfx @ Jun 9 2013, 11:14 PM)
Property market in Malaysia is defying gravity/economic theory. Hence, hard to comprehend.

On GST will bring recession, we can wait and see.
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if you are talking about a "market" that involves in buying and selling with a currency..i do believe all type of market CANNOT defy whatever gravity or economic theory u meant~~it is either some factors are mis-look, the underlying assumptions are wrong or some genius who interpret it wrongly~~

By THEORY~~GST was not really that bad~~but the problem is...whether the govt can implement it correctly... i.e. tax on the rich, subsidise the poor~~
you spent more, you pay more~~

in THEORY also~~when GST is implemented, the personal income tax rate has to drop accordingly~~means lesser PCB and more net cash receive by all tax payers...if the tax is focus heavier on goods and services,it also helps to close the gap on rich ppl who tried to evade tax in the past~~in my opinion this is a better tax system~~

HOWEVER,it is the current govt that makes me worry of how they are going to tax us~~we really have to "wait and see" on what brilliant plan they can come out with~~ doh.gif

Personally, i do think that the impact on property market is unavoidable and has a negative impact in the short term~~ will it bring down the property market? the GST tax factor alone is very unlikely~~

if the tax money is being used on infra (hospitals, schools, MRT & etc) and roads around your property, and not for corruption/stupid (e.g. building a 100 storey tower to con money) means~~then the property market might even be hotter~~Again~~it all depends on how the government use the money~~

This post has been edited by terryble: Jun 10 2013, 12:39 AM
terryble
post Jun 17 2013, 12:21 AM

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QUOTE(Steven83 @ Jun 13 2013, 12:07 PM)
woah....so the war still going... find this photo best describe our property market states.  Just receiving some oc obtained landed property and condo not yet sold out. Looks like developer is doing a good job of covering up unsold unit...

user posted image
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Nice drawings~~
it is by fundamental very hard for a salesman to tell u that the property market has problems~~
1 week before the recent financial crisis in US happened~~the authority + the housing association (forget the full name, but it WAS a national level 1) and the sales agent is saying the market is fine and will at most suffer a minor hiccup~~turnout it is a full power tsunami that sinks the whole US market..

My point is....the sales guy will say whatever that is in favour to them~~but as a buyer, plz process the info yourself~~

This post has been edited by terryble: Jun 17 2013, 12:22 AM
terryble
post Jun 27 2013, 03:21 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Jun 27 2013, 03:14 PM)
I don't under estimate or over estimate anything..... It's jus possibilities..... Even if its 0.1%, it's still a possibility.
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The likelihood of North Korea launching a nuclear war is almost 0~~

the chances of North Korea WINNING the war??? Only in your dreams~~~

The chances are....before North Korea launch anything~~it already become flat land~~IF US wants it to be~~
terryble
post Jun 27 2013, 03:32 PM

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QUOTE(AppreciativeMan @ Jun 27 2013, 03:25 PM)
Almost or definite?  rclxub.gif  rclxub.gif
1st sentence, almost
2nd sentence, definite
3rd sentence, chances again

This is an example of under estimate and over estimate...... Shutting down all possibilities is a last thing one shld hav...... If chances is zero, why Jap, South Korea and US need to standby??? If no chances of war, what is army for?
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haha~~

1st sentence = Launching
2nd sentence = After Launching
3rd sentence = before launch

three different time frame & three different possibility~~
terryble
post Jun 30 2013, 11:00 PM

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QUOTE(accetera @ Jun 30 2013, 05:12 PM)
"Build Then Sell" will kill the primary market and probably is the best way to curb the incidence of speculations in the primary market, though it is too harsh for developers.

Anyway, the govt has no intention to make BTS compulsory for now... but is looking at ways how the govt can be a genuine player in the housing sector, i.e. PR1MA, offering homes less than RM500k to meet the demands of the masses of working people. In years to come, private developers would probably need to move up the value chain to offer products that greatly distinguished from social housing like PR1MA.

Another thing is the govt may want more private developers to fund the surrounding infrastructure to the whole extent instead of relying from DBKL or Majlis. In order to enhance the value of properties, private developers would have to build their linkage to public transport or even build more new parks new police beats and new ramps/roads or BRT (bus rapid transit) to their sites. This is already happening now... but still not good enough. How many private developers out there are like Sunway willing to build a totally new modern BRT Line? How many township developers are like S P Setia able to have their own communal police?

Private developers will definitely incur many more additional costs, so their target market will also have to change to the affluent group of people. (according to bank data, the number of high net worth individuals in malaysia could easily double in years to come)

Demand and supply theory will greatly dictate the property market but that is one part of the story as there are also regulatory, environment, macroeconomics and other external factors that are also dictating the market. At the end, I think it all comes down to how confident are you in the Malaysia economy. (ASEAN economies if becoming more integrated will definitely make our economy stronger)
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Great analysis, well said~~ thumbup.gif

Anyway i do have worries on how Government of Malaysia (GoM) implement their plan~~
as far as my understanding~~the GoM always have good plans~~but the one who really implement it...mostly their own people~~in short~~the top tier developers only got a small piece of the cake~~ therefore, we really has to wait and see how PR1MA will be able to drive down the property price and benefit the people~~

Put that apart~~thousands of new unit will be available in the next 2~3 years~~
The supply is definitely plenty~~especially the pricey mickey mouse units~~assume 70% of all the new units are for own stay (VERY optimistic!!) there are a thousands more units left over for flipping~~again im trying to stress the high supply of new units~~

Demand~~hmm this is tricky~~ hmm.gif although KL is still the heart of Malaysia~~but recently the development seems to be moving out of KL~~partly due to scarcity of land, congestion, cost/price or even due to the MRT project...some say Cyberjaya will be next hotspot~~some say Rawang~~or maybe Johor~~it will create plenty of opportunity elsewhere~~ no doubt there are still new plans in KL but my point is~~but the demand should not be concentrating crazily at KL like it used to be~~ in other words..demand on KL maintain or only increase slightly~~

Well~~~the news says FDI is reducing for Malaysia~~we are not as attractive as we used to be to rest of the planet~~external demand should be weak~~actually really not hard to guess when Europe is struggling, US and China is slowing~~

Now~~if GoM brings cheap and good mickey mouse units under PR1MA~~i think it is not hard to guess what will happen to the pricey ones~~

Additionally, GoM is highly indebted~~sooner or later (i bet very soon), GoM has to repay it~~we are not strong like the USA, they can print more money to buy back their bonds (QE)~~GoM cant~~so be prepared guys~~~GoM will wanna take more money from its fellow citizens~~

Just my two cents on the latest development of the economy~~

This post has been edited by terryble: Jun 30 2013, 11:02 PM
terryble
post Jul 15 2013, 09:40 AM

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QUOTE(AmayaBumibuyer @ Jul 15 2013, 08:45 AM)
After US was in crisis and still was in a slump, at the same time Euro went into crisis but still Malaysia was not affected.
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Nope Malaysia is also affected...although not critically but the effect is great...the export and the demand for our raw materials were reduced~~and the effect came a bit late as well~~

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