It doesnt matter cheap boat or expensive boat, if u looking for a boat that wont sink or guaranteed safe....impossible la...

Ah....... Debate on bts again, huh?
Let's speculate what is gonna happen IF that is going to happen:
1. Big jump in price due to temporary no supply of 'new' housing for the initial period it is implemented. Demand > supply temporary due to pent up demand.
Under current practice, supply is delivered only after 2 to 3 years.

2. Greater manipulation of prices from developers. Since it is fully completed, why should the developer start offering their product at the lower end of the pricing spectrum? They would start with high price. Demand good, then raise price further. If no good then only lower the prices slightly until market accepts it. In short no more bargain prices for property purchasers.
What about current price manipulation by speculators and flippers?

3. Less developers as only big boys gets to play this game. Less competition, more monopoly of the trade.
Believe bank have no issue to support small reputable developers. At least fly by night developers are no longer in the market.

4. If you think it is tough to buy property in hot launches, wait till bts is launched. For good projects, only cabled people would be offer to buy. Common people would not stand any chance at all.
Not happening under current scheme?

5. Anybody has any idea on financing costs between bts and stb concept. Stb is basically relying on purchaser's financing to finance the job. If bts, you can only imagine the additional cost the product comes with. Again higher selling prices.
At the of the day, buyers still pay whether directly or indirectly.

Under current practice, supply is delivered only after 2 to 3 years.
so you are okay with no supply for the entire country for approx 2 years landed and 3 years highrise.
that's almost akin to request for no newborns for 2-3 years? 

What about current price manipulation by speculators and flippers?
i did emphasis on the word greater.

Believe bank have no issue to support small reputable developers. At least fly by night developers are no longer in the market.
hhhmmmmm....? u sure about that? banks favour small reputable developers. if they do, probably because they get to charge higher interest, perhaps. and even with abolishment of fly by night developers, it means less competition, less supply scenario.

Not happening under current scheme?
i did say it is gonna get even tougher. shesssh.... please read before commenting.

At the of the day, buyers still pay whether directly or indirectly.
yes and no. try financing 300k versus 300mil. try receiving progressive cashflow inflow versus total lump sum payment at end of project. work out the financing cost. and tell me whether there's a BIG difference or not.

scenario 1.
i sell clothes.
i ask around. confirm 100 orders for shirt + pants, then only i confirm to start work. but before start work i request the 100 confirmed orders to pay me RM1 to buy the cloth first.
hence i pocket rm100 to buy cloth.
i buy the cloth with rm80. use rm20 + bank borrow rm200 to buy sewing machine.
i sew the shirt and show my customers. customers ok and pay additional rm3. i gather rm300 now to pare down my loans and also use rm80 to buy cloth again and additional rm50 for packaging material. i sew the pants now. i request customer to fully pay up the balance rm2 before delivery. i use the rm200 to pare down my loans and deliver the product.
my loan peaked at rm200 momentarily before i pared down with new loan at rm30 and pared down again just before delivery.
my total interest chargeable is rm200 for a brief period + rm30 interest for a brief period too.
my base cost is actually rm430 + (rm200 + rm30 bank interest) + profit
scenario 2.
i buy rm160 cloth.
i buy the sewing machine at rm220.
i buy packaging material at rm50 later.
total borrowing =rm430 (rm380 upfront and rm50 later).
bank charges me rm380 interest for extended period and rm50 interest on short period.
completed and my base cost before selling = rm430 + (rm430 bank interest) + profit.

magnify that by millions and there you go.
now you tell me, which is cheaper?
and for scenario 2, don't even dream of getting a full rm430 loan to begin with.

Excuse me. this is real life experience based on real life events. If you want to make sweeping statements like that then..

Another DDD camper who just can't accept that he has missed the boat and fantasized about catching the boat.

"All prices are goin up and not just properties"

Go and see for yourself la the salary of people working in banks. You think i just say for the sake of saying? And bank get huge bonuses. People in Bnk Citizen (translate to English) average bonus can be in the range of more than 5 mnths. I know. This is not a fantasy.

Bro cheer up ! You are the most negative person in the whole forum ! No wonder AVFAN says you are Dr Gloom of LYN. To you, even people who make profit, you feel that eventually their profit will turn into loss

No offence, but I can't imagine if I were to have such friends with such huge negative energy. I don't want to be close to you. At least rooney, tikaram, jblow etc their tone is still positive and energetic on other stuff 

Bro, the sky above your head always got dark cloud ? Is there anything good in your life ?

LOL
'Small' man thinks alike?..... LOL
I'm having a great morning...... LOL

Your chicken takes 20+ years to hatch ? What an egg you have. Is it from Neptune ? 

Seriously, there are many report cards during your life. But it seems to you there is only 1 ultimate report card to sum up your success - the report card at the time you die. Where got fun like that ? If you made money during 1987, then that is a report card. The chicken has hatched. If you lost money during 1997, then that is another report card. You egg is rotten. Do you cry over your rotten egg ? No ! You accept it, look forward, and work harder to redeem the money you loss !

Bro, many people survived the downturn during 1987, 1997 and 2008, and emerge stronger ! Only people who have experienced the downturn will be confident of how to manage crisis. And they will say there is nothing to be afraid of during economic crisis as long as you are prepared for it. Economic crisis is not the end of the world. It is a phenomenon in economics. It WILL happen one day. If you are afraid of economic downturn, then you will be stucked at where you stand forever. Because economic downturn is 100% sure to hit us one day

Embraced the negative happenings in your life and ride through it. That is how a man grow up.

I know no amount of words can convince you now, until you have actually seen yourself through 1 economic crisis and emerge stronger. Then it will change your view on your life.

On a positive note, you wrote longer now to express yourself which shows you are more confident on the subject. Keep it up ! 

I know the effect on share market during the crisis of 1987, 1997 & 2008
but can you let us know the impact of property prices during those period 
which area hard hit the most and to what percentage did it fall? we focus on props that the individual can buy by paying in millions or less 
pls exclude examples bukit beruntung or those highly leveraged bumi companies that allow ytl to enter starhill, coz they paying with billions

As usual, this thread has degenerated into a mess of ad hominems. All in good fun of course, but not a very fruitful discussion.

Nevertheless, has anyone cared to comment on the impact of the tapering of QE in the regional economy? The ringgit has fallen considerably relative to the USD. Where is the money flowing out from? Government Bonds? Our KLCI hasn't fallen that much.

Anyway, why is QE relevant?

To my mind, the fundamental value of property on a *macro* basis hasn't changed at all in the past 5 years. By macro, I mean the attractiveness of property vis a vis other asset classes, and the attractiveness of Malaysian property vis a vis property in other countries. What has changed is the perception of the investing public as to the attractiveness of property as an investment class. Whether that perception shift is permanent, or whether it will reverse is still an open question, hence the present debate.

I note that the momentum of rising prices has already faded, and this sucks a lot of speculative euphoria out of the market. I'm therefore trending towards a reversal in the trend, but only if there is a systemic shock to the economy because prices will remain sticky in the context of our kiasu culture. One candidate which I have been monitoring as a factor for a systemic shock is the outflow of foreign funds following the end of QE. A reduction in liquidity, the fall in the MYR and a fall in the stock market will lead to an increase in interest rates, and a reduction in the wealth effect, thereby reducing the demand for luxury products like fancy houses.

Any thoughts?

Every year there will be the normal inflation caused escalation in prices and property is not spared. We must be careful not to associate ALL price increases with a potential property bubble. Property bubbles are usually created after a prolonged period of sharp increases in prices which may not be sustainable in the long run. Im not sure if Klang Valley falls under this category or not. Yes we are seeing increases the past 6 years but does it qualify as a predecessor to a bubble? 

if not mistaken, at tat time, there were rumour klia would be built somewhere there
furthermore, its so outskirt, but those speculator really taken in by the advertisement song 'wat a wonderful world'
since investment is abt locationx3. those speculators did not follow the criteria and was zombified 

klse, repco and most other shares were above RM100, the goodie-goodie days
most co borrow or max out loan and pledge their shares 
well then, there is alwiz good and bad times. share mkt very liquid, so fast up,fast down. not same for props

so can hav your examples of those props which collapse, which area and etc during those downturn 

I am not exactly sure where we disagree, and perhaps I simply misunderstand you. I do acknowledge that my knowledge is as yet "half baked", hence my need to resort to forums such as this for ideas.

With regard to tapering, the Fed has been remarkably consistent with past pronouncements thus far, even with respect to controversial policies, and it has been a key part of recent Fed policy to communicate clearly its intentions and to follow through in order to guide market expectations to respond rationally. I think the tapering will occur as stated, even if only for the sake of consistency, but the details may vary depending on how the economy reacts. This is more an issue of political science than economics, and is subject to even greater guesswork and uncertainty than the murky field of economics.

I am in total agreement with you that Malaysia's property market bull run is essentially a credit bubble which is slowly running out of so called greater fools. Common sense dictates that when loan growth outstrips GDP, the excess money created is directed towards pushing up asset prices.

BNM statistics (http://www.bnm.gov.my/index.php?ch=en_publication_catalogue&pg=en_publication_msb&tpt=bnm_2011&mth=5&yr=2013&lang=en&eId=box1) shows that in the past 5 years, quarterly residential property loans have doubled, and quarterly non-residential property loans properties tripled. In order for prices to continue rising at the same pace as the past 5 years, we need the same rate of loan growth. I don't see how that's likely to happen considering that household debt is bursting at its seams.

Nevertheless, where I disagree with the DDD camp is that bubbles such as this need not end in a burst. If there is no needleprick to jumpstart the cycle of fear and paranoia, and prices may simply stagnate. You must agree that, unlike most other asset markets, property prices tend to be sticky downwards. Prof Keen lost a bet when he predicted that the Australian Property bubble would burst back in around 2007-2008. Your analogy involving speculators depends on how many speculators there are relative to the greater pool of investors. The anecdotal evidence suggests that there are many, but there are no numbers out there to know for sure.

Ok lah bro, since you believe so strongly people will get burnt 1 day, it is better for you not to do anything. Keep your money in the safest place and enjoy your food ! 

BTW, careful about your diet. Red meat is not good. Take more vege !

ya, perpetual prediction on the burst is still on it's way.

p/s: price stagnant is a good sign to cool down the market.

Why is there no car bubble term in Malaysia? Because there is no such thing happened in this world. There is only property bubble, stock bubble commodity bubble but no car bubble. And in Malaysia I believe there is a car bubble but it is just that it is always supported by Malaysians that it will never burst. Well the bubble doesnt increase anyway but I believe cars in Malaysia are much expensive nowadays compared to 10-20 yrs ago, right? If cars dont burst, hard for me to think that the apartments I bought will decrease.

No. this is all about slowing down of credit. The effect is IMMEDIATE.

lol..... u seem know too little about banking and finance. keep investing, the market now need more people like you.

Any idea whn property market will crash?

So you mean the main culprit causing property crash is 'FLIPPERS'. Its good the goverment now taking various action to ban flippers to prevent market crash.

Yes yes..... There are 60%-90% prop buyers are flippers which in super high risk.....
So the gov will need trash these flippers to save the prop market..... 
Wonder if the prop don't sell by then, gloom day seems ahead..... does those 'genuine' buyer dare to enter the market?....     

It doesn't matter RM1500/sqf or RM5100/sqf, there are many RICH people in Malaysia that can afford to buy just anything!!!

And wages in banks, oil industry like Petronas I know increase like hell already. Combine income of husband and wife from the insdustry are easily more than 10k.

Let me ask what is the price of oil during the 80s. When the bubble hit so call Japan?
Then the 90s how much was the price of oil?
Now 100USD for a barrel of oil is the norm.

Given the fact that during the recent 2008 crisis, oil was not the contributor to the crisis but how much was it then?

During a bubble, people don't believe that prices will fall," he said. "This has been proven wrong so many times in the past. But there's something in human nature that makes us unable to learn from history."

Well, I am not comparing to Japan. It would be not be exactly the same circumstances, triggers or impacts. But there are many economy and financial ratios similarities, which many other posted here.
After the Japanese bubble popped, the Americans too thought it wont happen to them. US not same as Japan.
After the America, the Irish said it wont happen to them. Ireland diffent from America.
Then UK, Spain, Vietname etc.

I'm just reposting postings from an ASEAN forum... and cut short the rest, except the China article that was in the papers today. Of very lately, there has been alot of foreigners' trying to seek deals in Malaysia.

Right now at the corporate level, there are some interesting deals involving foreign high end hoteliers coming into KL market such as the Fairmont and Swissotel combo ala Raffles City Singapore for KLCC - they often cite:

- a booming tourism business and an optimistic projection of tourism numbers in coming years,

- many locals are starting to attract foreign investments in our local real estate... before this, only 3% of property buyers are foreigners,

- increasing wealth of population and the doubling high net worth individuals in 3 years time (an article on Bloomberg this morning mentioned the same for Malaysians),

- property potential as Malaysian properties especially rentals have been a laggard in ASEAN over last 3 years despite the convincing economic growth