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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V129, All time high!

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foofoosasa
post Apr 3 2013, 06:10 PM

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QUOTE(mopster @ Apr 3 2013, 05:33 PM)
back to hiding... nothing happened today.. >__>
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nod.gif , patience like your avatar.
foofoosasa
post Apr 4 2013, 07:06 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Apr 4 2013, 06:46 PM)
true. it's "using eggs to hit rock" kind of war.
sigh! i wish cold blooded people such as this fat kid should be punished gaw gaw.
I dunno how to punish people like him.  doh.gif
Maybe we need batman sometimes.  sad.gif
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laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif

Market will become more unpredictable....probably will shed away some trader.

foofoosasa
post Apr 5 2013, 01:01 PM

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QUOTE(skiddtrader @ Apr 5 2013, 12:48 PM)
For people thinking about crash, what is your expectation? KLCI 1680 to 1200 in a couple of days? 100 point drop? Or a gradual fall like -10 points a day for the whole year?
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Honestly, I am one of it. Prediction? Ermm no prediction at all. See the price I like, buy lo. See the price I love, buy a lot lo. Impossible can predict one.
foofoosasa
post Apr 5 2013, 06:38 PM

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Wah many value investor, long term investor turn out to be short term trader already.
Sound fun right? xD
foofoosasa
post Apr 5 2013, 06:50 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 5 2013, 06:42 PM)
Well good for you then, keep buying more and more and more.  icon_idea.gif

I also bought after the dot com bust and in 2008, but i prefer to keep a contrarian view..  wink.gif

Sell when the market is in euphoria and buy back when they are in despair.
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market not yet reach euphoria mode la, but arguably in quite optimistic I guess?
foofoosasa
post Apr 5 2013, 07:06 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 5 2013, 06:52 PM)
Depends on individual stock... not the market... if the fair value is exceeded then sell, if still undervalue then keep.  laugh.gif
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tongue.gif , I am trying to getting rid of value syndrome.

One simple reason is that this approach more often you can 20 - 50% if you get corrected, but rarely people will put concentrated amount of wealth in those stocks.

Applying uncle buffet's one of his famous quote : " it better to buy wonderful company at fair price rather than fair company at wonderful price."

but can't even found 1 blue chips that I like the price in here now cry.gif
foofoosasa
post Apr 5 2013, 07:24 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 5 2013, 07:13 PM)
What is yr definition of Blue Chips ?  if above  rm 100 , then u got to wait lah.

Cannot find one right now laugh.gif
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see how people define lo. Like doing FA or TA, different people see different things mah.
maybe there are some blue chips at least at fair price, just I dunno.
keep finding and finding. Here don't have go other market lo...earning other place while waiting.
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post Apr 5 2013, 07:25 PM

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QUOTE(jy1905 @ Apr 5 2013, 07:15 PM)
u just gotta wait
until all those who side-lined panic and jump in to chase the stocks higher
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Maybe market will go into euphoria mode, who knows. Let me wait another few years, I also no problem.
foofoosasa
post Apr 5 2013, 10:11 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 5 2013, 07:31 PM)
Probably u need to read the " diamond true story " .

The morale of the story  is most people travel far to seek the so called blue chips/diamonds  , rm 10, 50 100 and above. But never care to look at one own back yards.

Well, when reits were traded at below rm one, only 1 or 2 persons here  think they are diamonds, now turning out to be.
Russell H. Conwell's Acres of Diamonds
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Yeap, probably you're right.

But honestly if put significant of money in Reits, I just feel I could do more better (I wish).

Many of the small/medium caps in malaysia. Honestly I don't think I dare to put significant amount of my wealth...Just play and run away as always ( I need to watch them over them shakehead.gif )

It turn out to be only aiming those highly priced blue chips.
foofoosasa
post Apr 6 2013, 10:59 AM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Apr 6 2013, 12:59 AM)
Generally, in normal market condition, most blue chips price won't be too cheap. FUnd managers are eyeing around everyday, how can they go cheap then?
Fund managers by nature is bullish (as short is not permitted here), so if they have money, or people pouring money into fund/unit trust etc, they need to buy, cannot take client money and put all in cash as FD, right?

The so called "cheap price" generally occur once or twice in a decade.

From my experience, it is better to buy a good company share at fair price instead of cheap price in a lousy company.

There is cheap price in red chip, super duper low valuation, who said there is no "cheap" price?  tongue.gif
or
There are still plenty of 0.005 CWs out there... tongue.gif
This cannot go "cheaper" already.  laugh.gif
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My portfolio grown bigger, buying good company with minimal supervision become first preference.
while investing in these really wonderful company, people can focus on their own career too.

You're right,true blue cheap indeed occurs once or twice in decade. Even in downturn panic market, the price probably slighty below its fair value...

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Apr 6 2013, 10:59 AM
foofoosasa
post Apr 6 2013, 06:56 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Apr 6 2013, 11:19 AM)
Can go for co with good cash flow one mah.

Even Daiman , I do not think it is a blu chip in nature, but with good cash flow.

Maybe in the future .........

And many times I see blu chip Banks  simply spent money ( over paying )  to buy other banks/brokers  in Billions too.

What is the purpose behind their purposes hmm.gif
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Really busy something else recently.
don't have much time to hunt those mediocre company with good valuation.
Thanks for the tips dude, will have a look on it.

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Apr 6 2013, 07:52 PM
foofoosasa
post Apr 6 2013, 07:49 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Apr 6 2013, 09:29 AM)
IMHO Not all cheap stocks (as in market cap) with low PE is volatile and dangerous to invest. If it is a speculative play then yes it's risky, but there are lots of them with good fundamentals. In fact there are quite a few which graduated to blue chips over time as well.

There is a difference in 'cheap' on valuation, market cap and price. Some of my 'cheap' (low PE) stocks have prices that rival blue chips.  laugh.gif

You can find safe, low PE, fundamentally sound companies with low market caps. Not all blue chips are wonderful companies, but you definitely pay higher price for it.  wink.gif My low pE, low market cap holdings let me sleep at night better, as it is less volatile and have good dividend to boot, so it lets me wait out all the ups and downs.

I like these range of stocks, no need to compete against those 'fun' managers. I am proud to say I never held a KLCI index stock before, as before i find their valuation appalling. If later the value shines, then I might buy some.  wink.gif

P/S Your post is 3.30 am.. no need to sleep ah brother yok.  whistling.gif
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Yes not all blue chips are wonderful company, this I absolutely agree.

But the flaw of value investing by buying mediocre undervalue companies and selling when it reach the value, value investor still have to "guess" whether the value will keep increasing in future years.

Let say you bought one undervalue mediocre stock, once the price reach your value ...you still have to guess whether the value won't be increasing next few years. This will cause scenario like sell to

early or sell to late. And let say you're prudent enough, sell whenever it reach your value, personal experience from myself can tell how much not worth of your effort if you're only invest with little amount because of the reasons below:

1) first you still have to track what happen inside the company, track any sensitive price information announcement made by the company.
2) Not all business are easily foreseeable for the next 5 to 10 years.
3) It can be undervalued for so long that, less trader causing the stock have inadequate liquidity.

The main reason why I turn into buy and hold approach simply because reason no.1 and no.2.

Point number 1 if the company having a good volume trading, this usually happened after the stock become "famous", value investor who managed to pick it before it become famous....so what are the decision now? Sell , hold or buy? With value investor mindset usually this value syndrome mentioned by you last time, usually buy will not be the option. Left hold or Sell option. End up you either have to sell it earlier than everyone which expecting the value of the company probably will stuck there for a while, or another option that value investor have to compete with trader by to avoid value trap. In short, really time consuming....

Point number 2 is the reason why people probably put very less % of their total portfolio in the money. The real example will be our malaysian version of guru, Coldeye. Holding a lot of undervalued stocks with frequent monitor because of so many stocks holding as the fund grown bigger. Very time consuming too.....but probably better option for full time investor.

What my view is say that when someone portfolio getting bigger...which approach will probably better for someone less time to monitor.
foofoosasa
post Apr 6 2013, 09:07 PM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Apr 6 2013, 08:58 PM)
Eyeing both US and HK/China market. I love 郑少秋 effect! Down another 10% even better!  drool.gif
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sweat.gif , seems like you have so much times to watch three market rclxub.gif
foofoosasa
post Apr 7 2013, 10:34 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Apr 6 2013, 10:24 PM)
It's my hobby already, very entertaining game.  tongue.gif
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Haha.. my heartbeat also jupm very fast these two weeks. In Hk,Wiped out all my gain and start to eat my capital. But I tell myself need calm down.
Since you interested in hk, should be your time to buy more already.
But I am sad the post ge effect here not what I am expected cry.gif
foofoosasa
post Apr 10 2013, 06:44 PM

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QUOTE(jy1905 @ Apr 10 2013, 06:42 PM)
but singapoor market small, only 6mil ppl
population ald max
if squeeze sommore have to live in sea
or iskandar? ok, prop again
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A lot of foreigner there tongue.gif , the "guai lou" cannot live without beers. sweat.gif
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post Apr 10 2013, 09:20 PM

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QUOTE(jy1905 @ Apr 10 2013, 08:35 PM)
but what do i get?
the value of my holdings still the same rite?
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better for goreng? brows.gif
foofoosasa
post Apr 11 2013, 06:23 PM

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QUOTE(Icehart @ Apr 11 2013, 05:43 PM)
Erm, why play speculative when no time to monitor leh? unsure.gif
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I also curious why ppl dare to do so? unless too much money? tongue.gif
foofoosasa
post Apr 11 2013, 09:29 PM

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QUOTE(Boon3 @ Apr 11 2013, 07:31 PM)
Yes!!!! smile.gif

I understand this kind of thinking.
You see it in the movies, person picking themselves up from bankruptcy.
You see it in the news.
Success stories from bankruptcy.
It's a good teaching that if one fail, one should not give up and that we should try and try until we succeed.

But let me say again..
While it is indeed good to pick ourselves up from failures, this is not a position we want to be in, definitely not from a bankruptcy perspective.

We are not Richard Bransons.
If we fail, there is a good chance we will not be able to pick ourselves up no matter how hard we try.
We cannot afford failures like those rich people.
Rich people can start a business venture and they can afford to let it fail
The cost of the failed project is a spit in the ocean for them.
They can afford many more failures unlike us.
We fail just one time ah.. we will die standing.

We want to learn from other mistakes so that we don't fail.

» Click to show Spoiler - click again to hide... «

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Your theory apply to those average and poor person who couldnt afford make serious mistake in stock market too. nod.gif

Poor fag like me cry.gif

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Apr 11 2013, 09:33 PM
foofoosasa
post Apr 12 2013, 11:25 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 12 2013, 10:18 PM)
the rationale? hmm.gif

I've been one who was fooled by this before - see stock in deep red free fall > freaked out > sold out > next day/trading at last stock rallied shakehead.gif

The Who - "We won't get fooled again!" biggrin.gif
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Impossible to know one la, who fool who? I also have seen plenty of stocks drop like no tomorrow. After 3 months lose 60-80% of the value.

If share price movement have rationality, all the traders will be rich. all those value and long term investing etc can throw to sea already. laugh.gif

unless u know insider news la, then diff story
foofoosasa
post Apr 12 2013, 11:51 PM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Apr 12 2013, 11:28 PM)
Can this be the case?

A & B wanna accumulate XYZ Berhad shares at cheap.
A conspire with B, ask B to sell his holdings cheap, they would time it so perfectly that A would pick up B's lots.
Then reverse, A sells, B buys.
Keep doing it til there's significant volume and price drop.
Retail investors freak out looking at the activity, and sold out en masse, this is when A and B would accumulate.

Does this happen?
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Maybe? But usually person A or B either one must be significant holder in XYZ companies. Significant Investor have to declare their activity . If the person is holding less than 5 %, quite unlikely to control the share price. Unless there not many trader or investor interested in the stock? Even so the company itself may interfere in many occasion.

I would say some penny stocks, bad fundamental and don't have liquid stock volume would be easier to do so.In good fundamental or "popular" stock?I Doubt whether it can be manipulated that easily.

But this kind of manipulation of stock price should be supervised by Bursa. But I doubt do bursa really care about all those insider trading / stock price manipulation hmm.gif

Just my opinion, correct me if I am wrong

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