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 TM HSBB Expansion To Slowdown & Halt, After Phase 1 (Ended Dec 2012)

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TSAhn3hn3h
post Mar 20 2013, 02:09 PM, updated 13y ago

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Sorry not to disappoint anyone here but expansion of TM Unifi now is very unlikely to take place any more unless you plan to move into some new high end housing development that made a pact with TM for the private partnership program. Most of these housing developers who made the private partnership program for HSBB are selling homes which will never be afforded by the middle class or lower.

As soon as Phase 1 of the HSBB ended on December 2012, the BN government had stopped giving subsidy grants to TM therefore it is expected that fibre expansion works will slow down considerably or come to an eventual halt.

Moody's Research comments:

QUOTE
As a result of the high dividend policy and commitment to return excess cash to shareholders, cash flow metrics will continue to remain inconsistent with the current A3 rating. Furthermore, further HSBB investments will be made by TMB without any government grant, and which will further pressure its cash flow metrics.

March 2013
Source: http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Tele...ions--PR_267330

Those who live in cities such as Georgetown, Ipoh, Malacca, Kota Kinabalu and Kuching, I do feel sorry for you all.

So much for the slogan lies that lauds:

Tiada Terpinggir, Tiada Tertinggal

Till now 1.4 million(1.377million ending 2012) out of 29 million* only subscribed to the HSBB project.
What does that translate to? Around only 4.8% benefited from it?

So is 95.2% Tertinggal?

*http://www.indexmundi.com/malaysia/population.html - 29,179,952 (July 2012 est.)

1) Tellabs braces for FTTP(GPON) sales drop-off
QUOTE
Tellabs reported a 13% year-over-year revenue decline in the fourth quarter but warned of a greater drop to come, predicting first-quarter revenue to be down 19% to 26% from a year earlier, to between $345 million and $375 million.

The biggest single driver of that revenue drop is an anticipated decline in sales of optical network terminals (ONTs), the customer premises gear in fiber-to-the-premises (FTTP) networks, Tellabs said. Last April, the vendor opted to walk away from a contract to supply its biggest customer, Verizon Communications, with the next generation of FTTP gear: GPON. And six months later, Tellabs announced it was shifting development away from access equipment such as ONTs, whose thin, and sometimes non-existent, margins have long been a problem for Tellabs.
http://connectedplanetonline.com/residenti...ales-drop-0127/

2) Experts say GPON has limited prospects in Russia due to high costs.
QUOTE
Among the disadvantages of GPON technology, J'son & Partners Consulting named the high cost of the equipment, the need to build the entire network at once, and the relatively long payback period.

"We believe that a switch to GPON technology is unlikely to be widespread due to the high cost of the technology.
http://www.lightwaveonline.com/news/2013/0...high-costs.html
TSAhn3hn3h
post Mar 20 2013, 02:27 PM

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Just for comparison purposes:

We are no longer even ranked 3rd in SEA for internet pricing.

While Singapore still remain the undisputed No. 1 position, Thailand and Vietnam competes for the remaining 2nd and 3rd positions.

This is how much cheaper True Thailand High Speed Internet Packages are:

16mbps/1mbps on DSL for 1399 Baht
20mbps/2mbps on DOCSIS 3.0 for 1299Baht
200mbps/15mbps on DOCSIS 3.0 for 9999Baht

http://trueonline.truecorp.co.th/package/buy/238

Malaysians are very "Terpinggir and Tertinggal" indeed

seme
post Mar 20 2013, 02:31 PM

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wow. even got 200mbps. my 10 mbps seems overprice sad.gif
^pomen_GTR^
post Mar 20 2013, 02:40 PM

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QUOTE(Ahn3hn3h @ Mar 20 2013, 02:27 PM)
Just for comparison purposes:

We are no longer even ranked 3rd in SEA for internet pricing.

While Singapore still remain the undisputed No. 1 position, Thailand and Vietnam competes for the remaining 2nd and 3rd positions.

This is how much cheaper True Thailand High Speed Internet Packages are:

16mbps/1mbps on DSL for 1399 Baht
20mbps/2mbps on DOCSIS 3.0 for 1299Baht
200mbps/15mbps on DOCSIS 3.0 for 9999Baht

http://trueonline.truecorp.co.th/package/buy/238

Malaysians are very "Terpinggir and Tertinggal" indeed
*
QUOTE(seme @ Mar 20 2013, 02:31 PM)
wow. even got 200mbps. my 10 mbps seems overprice sad.gif
*
yes indeed this were so true

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sani154ta
post Mar 20 2013, 03:04 PM

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2 frikin years of waiting and this happen hahahaha. HIDUP MALAYSIA!
Xefron
post Mar 20 2013, 03:22 PM

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QUOTE(Ahn3hn3h @ Mar 20 2013, 02:09 PM)
Sorry not to disappoint anyone here but expansion of TM Unifi now is very unlikely to take place any more unless you plan to move into some new high end housing development that made a pact with TM for the private partnership program. Most of these housing developers who made the private partnership program for HSBB are selling homes which will never be afforded by the middle class or lower.

As soon as Phase 1 of the HSBB ended on December 2012, the BN government had stopped giving subsidy grants to TM therefore it is expected that fibre expansion works will slow down considerably or come to an eventual halt.

Moody's Research comments:
Source: http://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-Tele...ions--PR_267330

Those who live in cities such as Georgetown, Ipoh, Malacca, Kota Kinabalu and Kuching, I do feel sorry for you all.

So much for the slogan lies that lauds:

Tiada Terpinggir, Tiada Tertinggal

Till now 1.4 million(1.377million ending 2012) out of 29 million* only subscribed to the HSBB project.
What does that translate to? Around only 4.8% benefited from it?

So is 95.2% Tertinggal?


Expected home pass till end Dec 2012:1.34 million premises
Final home pass till end Dec 2012:1.377 million premises
Total current subscriber: ~ 517,000K = 37 %

This post has been edited by Xefron: Mar 20 2013, 03:23 PM
TSAhn3hn3h
post Mar 20 2013, 03:42 PM

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QUOTE(Xefron @ Mar 20 2013, 03:22 PM)
Expected home pass till end Dec 2012:1.34 million premises
Final home pass till end Dec 2012:1.377 million premises
Total current subscriber: ~ 517,000K = 37 %
*
They are playing with useless figures there.

37% of TM internet subscribers who opted for Unifi which only have a home pass of 1.377million by end of 2012?
63% all still on older Streamyx and other wireless internet packages?

For those who are misinformed:
Homes passed = Homes which are available for HSBB/Unifi (meaning eligible to apply with Unifi availability)
Amount of Subscribers = Real Unifi account users

Malaysia has a population of ~29million as of July2012*

Only 517k applied for Unifi subscription? laugh.gif
That's even a worst number.

1.377million homes passed with only 517k Unifi accounts?
Where are the 0.86million whose homes are covered by HSBB? laugh.gif

Homes passed does not mean that the particular household will be subscribing to Unifi

With so many abandoned properties and unoccuppied homes, do they too qualify as homes passed if Unifi is available in those areas?

All I can say is those numbers were bloated.

Does it make any sense if a forum boast of handling 10 million account traffic capacity when there are only 1k active users each of them create like 100 dupe accounts each on average?

This post has been edited by Ahn3hn3h: Mar 20 2013, 04:03 PM
TSAhn3hn3h
post Mar 20 2013, 03:59 PM

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The chances are very slim for brown field(existing old) properties/homes unless there's some prominent VIP figure living in your housing area.

In the HSBB Phase2 agreement after Phase1 ended on Dec 2012, TM will only be interested in offering Unifi to newly built housing projects if the developer approaches them and willing to share part of the build up cost.
This is what they call the Private-Public Partnership Project which they were suggesting.

They no longer receive any subsidy grants by Government for the HSBB project so they see little interests in pulling fibre to old housing areas as written by the research paper by analysts.

So this gives you an indication how successful the HSBB project was.

I'm not sure even if you get all your neighbours to sign a petition for Unifi availability will work if your area's telephone exchange is not covered already in the current list.
Xefron
post Mar 20 2013, 04:07 PM

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Malaysia Population ;~28,000,000

Total Malaysia's Internet User:17,723,000

Penetration Rate:~63%


% using UniFi =517,000K/17,723,000 = ~ 2.9% only

% using other than UniFi = 97.1%

Consider FTTH is for premium consumer as for now icon_rolleyes.gif



tohff7
post Mar 20 2013, 04:17 PM

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If you guys really want to compare apple to apple, please multiply your Unifi figure by 3.

You are comparing no. of households that subscribed to Unifi vs. the population of the country? jizzz
Xefron
post Mar 20 2013, 04:26 PM

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QUOTE(tohff7 @ Mar 20 2013, 04:17 PM)
If you guys really want to compare apple to apple, please multiply your Unifi figure by 3.

You are comparing no. of households that subscribed to Unifi vs. the population of the country? jizzz
*
Err nop,I am comparing UniFi users vs total Malaysia's Internet Users
TSAhn3hn3h
post Mar 20 2013, 04:32 PM

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QUOTE(tohff7 @ Mar 20 2013, 04:17 PM)
If you guys really want to compare apple to apple, please multiply your Unifi figure by 3.

You are comparing no. of households that subscribed to Unifi vs. the population of the country? jizzz
*
I'm sure it wouldn't be accurate too.

You need to take in consideration of many factors such as:

1) Does the figure also include business premise accounts which result in overlapped individuals who registered for both home and their own business? It only mentioned premises passed and no. of subscribers.
The figures can get really bloated if say a plaza complex which is only half occupied with 100 tenants. So TM will claim 100 premise passed with that building alone but out of the 50 tenants, only 5 subscribes the internet?

2) The figure comes from the no. of login accounts created or Unifi email accounts available which whether staff/test accounts were also added in(they're not telling)

3) If you want to compare household penetration rate then it'll not be accurate because the possibility of IT illiterate family members exists as well. Can business/offices premise considered household?
The fact is the adoption figure for consumer can even be much smaller.

This post has been edited by Ahn3hn3h: Mar 20 2013, 04:34 PM
tohff7
post Mar 20 2013, 05:19 PM

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QUOTE(Ahn3hn3h @ Mar 20 2013, 04:32 PM)
I'm sure it wouldn't be accurate too.

You need to take in consideration of many factors such as:

1) Does the figure also include business premise accounts which result in overlapped individuals who registered for both home and their own business? It only mentioned premises passed and no. of subscribers.
The figures can get really bloated if say a plaza complex which is only half occupied with 100 tenants. So TM will claim 100 premise passed with that building alone but out of the 50 tenants, only 5 subscribes the internet?

2) The figure comes from the no. of login accounts created or Unifi email accounts available which whether staff/test accounts were also added in(they're not telling)

3) If you want to compare household penetration rate then it'll not be accurate because the possibility of IT illiterate family members exists as well. Can business/offices premise considered household?
The fact is the adoption figure for consumer can even be much smaller.
*
At least it would be more accurate than your calculation.

We are talking about the 517k who actually subscribed. Majority of this are households subscribers. You can't take this figure and divided by the no.of population to derive the %. At least divided by the no. of households please.

And for the 1.4m premises, it's actually more accurate to say that this is 1.4m ports available for subscription. That's why you get cases where certain area can't subscribe to Unifi because port is full.

And don't get me started that you should also included Maxis FTTH subscribers since they used TM HSBB network as well biggrin.gif
blacktubi
post Mar 20 2013, 05:31 PM

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Did you know what happened at my Housing Area

TM happened to throw a bunch of fibre cable behind a lamp post, they installed half of the location but it seem halted.

Been halted for more than 2 months.
TSAhn3hn3h
post Mar 20 2013, 05:43 PM

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QUOTE(tohff7 @ Mar 20 2013, 05:19 PM)
At least it would be more accurate than your calculation.

We are talking about the 517k who actually subscribed. Majority of this are households subscribers. You can't take this figure and divided by the no.of population to derive the %. At least divided by the no. of households please.

And for the 1.4m premises, it's actually more accurate to say that this is 1.4m ports available for subscription. That's why you get cases where certain area can't subscribe to Unifi because port is full.

And don't get me started that you should also included Maxis FTTH subscribers since they used TM HSBB network as well biggrin.gif
*
Well you know each port Maxis and other ISPs sold is also a TM Wholesale port.

So yeah the article was quoting HSBB numbers weren't it?

Admit it la TM. GPON only works best in densely populated small island wide countries such as HK and Singapore.
Best scenario is multi tenant buildings which the strategy which Time Broadband is playing.

The current HSBB coverage for industrial areas is almost equal to its household counterpart.
tohff7
post Mar 20 2013, 05:44 PM

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QUOTE(Ahn3hn3h @ Mar 20 2013, 05:43 PM)
Well you know each port Maxis and other ISPs sold is also a TM Wholesale port.

So yeah the article was quoting HSBB numbers weren't it?

Admit it la TM. GPON only works best in densely populated small island wide countries such as HK and Singapore.
Best scenario is multi tenant buildings which the strategy which Time Broadband is playing.

The current HSBB coverage for industrial areas is almost equal to its household counterpart.
*
i was referring to the 517k numbers, not the 1.4m

TSAhn3hn3h
post Mar 20 2013, 05:45 PM

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QUOTE(blacktubi @ Mar 20 2013, 05:31 PM)
Did you know what happened at my Housing Area

TM happened to throw a bunch of fibre cable behind a lamp post, they installed half of the location but it seem halted.

Been halted for more than 2 months.
*
That does not belong to TM if it's behind lamp posts. It's under state government public utility or TNB(Tenaga Electric) wholesale.

Those cables are probably for LTE backhaul, or any ISPs seeking to leased dark fibre for own use.
Any ISP such as TM, TIME, Maxis, Celcom or DiGi can lease it for their use.
blacktubi
post Mar 20 2013, 05:52 PM

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QUOTE(Ahn3hn3h @ Mar 20 2013, 05:45 PM)
That does not belong to TM if it's behind lamp posts. It's under state government public utility or TNB(Tenaga Electric) wholesale.

Those cables are probably for LTE backhaul, or any ISPs seeking to leased dark fibre for own use.
Any ISP such as TM, TIME, Maxis, Celcom or DiGi can lease it for their use.
*
I can confirm those are TM HSBB cable smile.gif

They already wired the TM pose on top and half of the taman, the big bunch of cable even labeled TM bla bla bla
TSAhn3hn3h
post Mar 20 2013, 06:03 PM

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QUOTE(blacktubi @ Mar 20 2013, 05:52 PM)
I can confirm those are TM HSBB cable smile.gif

They already wired the TM pose on top and half of the taman, the big bunch of cable even labeled TM bla bla bla
*
The lamp posts on the streets are not owned by TMB but TNB. LGE government has this policy of keeping public infrastructure neutral on the island to avoid monopoly.

It could be backhaul metro Ethernet cables for wiring MSANs, it could be for pulling into HSBB private partnership program for nearby condo/housing development units which the developer made a pact to share build cost with TM.

The message here is if your telephone exchange currently is not under Unifi listing, and you have an old home(brown field areas) chances that TM will pull fibre into your property into your taman is very SLIM. They will have to bear the whole cost unless you live next to the Chief Minister's house or some VIP that TM can't resist.

This post has been edited by Ahn3hn3h: Mar 20 2013, 06:04 PM
blacktubi
post Mar 20 2013, 06:29 PM

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QUOTE(Ahn3hn3h @ Mar 20 2013, 06:03 PM)
The lamp posts on the streets are not owned by TMB but TNB. LGE government has this policy of keeping public infrastructure neutral on the island to avoid monopoly.

It could be backhaul metro Ethernet cables for wiring MSANs, it could be for pulling into HSBB private partnership program for nearby condo/housing development units which the developer made a pact to share build cost with TM.

The message here is if your telephone exchange currently is not under Unifi listing, and you have an old home(brown field areas) chances that TM will pull fibre into your property into your taman is very SLIM. They will have to bear the whole cost unless you live next to the Chief Minister's house or some VIP that TM can't resist.
*
laugh.gif The pole is TM, it doesn't come with a lamp, it doesn't come with TNB marking, it is owned by TM, the copper distribution point are there, come with TM spray paint and their code. laugh.gif

My area got 2 pole, one at front and one at back. smile.gif

Anyway, half of the housing area is wired with fibre, fibre distribution point is already installed smile.gif

Just halted

This post has been edited by blacktubi: Mar 20 2013, 07:13 PM
TSAhn3hn3h
post Mar 20 2013, 07:44 PM

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QUOTE(blacktubi @ Mar 20 2013, 06:29 PM)
laugh.gif The pole is TM, it doesn't come with a lamp, it doesn't come with TNB marking, it is owned by TM, the copper distribution point are there, come with TM spray paint and their code.  laugh.gif

My area got 2 pole, one at front and one at back.  smile.gif

Anyway, half of the housing area is wired with fibre, fibre distribution point is already installed  smile.gif

Just halted
*
I do not know the answer to your earlier question but you mentioned earlier in post #14 about fibre cables behind lamp posts, that's where I got the idea it was on lamp poles, maybe I misunderstood.

Actually you can try to get a better answer from a TM technician assigned to your areas telephone exchange.

But the chance of your area getting Unifi covered is high since you say your housing area some parts already got Unifi. TM will eventually cover the blind spots if the exchange covering your area is already serving Unifi.

What I was trying to say earlier is those exchanges earlier not serving Unifi service, chances of getting it will be slim for expansion.

 

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