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 Your prediction on Malaysian property, Latest survey 18.Mar.13

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cybermaster98
post Mar 18 2013, 03:11 PM

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The results of this vote may be inconclusive because there are many property agents in LYN together who will vote for UP UP UP despite knowing full well that prices have already started stagnating in some areas.
SUStikaram
post Mar 18 2013, 03:13 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Mar 18 2013, 04:11 PM)
The results of this vote may be inconclusive because there are many property agents in LYN together who will vote for UP UP UP despite knowing full well that prices have already started stagnating in some areas.
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strongly agree as most of them have multiple accounts. So information in lowyat always need extra salt...cili..suger...viniger...

This post has been edited by tikaram: Mar 18 2013, 03:13 PM
puchongite
post Mar 18 2013, 03:14 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Mar 18 2013, 03:11 PM)
The results of this vote may be inconclusive because there are many property agents in LYN together who will vote for UP UP UP despite knowing full well that prices have already started stagnating in some areas.
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Haha I don't normally participate in online polls. And I also don't quite bother with the polling results.

This post has been edited by puchongite: Mar 18 2013, 03:14 PM
joeblows
post Mar 18 2013, 03:32 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Mar 18 2013, 03:06 PM)
taiko...

let said you live in maluri kepong.

most unit price 620k

suddenly got one fire sale at the same row Rm 460k only  and you confident that u can sell it immediately at 600k

will you buy it or not if u can afford it.

me. I will
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I also will buy.

BUT

What if got 3 units at one go fire sale RM460K at the same time, and your area not fully tenanted? Will you buy? That time needs more thinking.

By the way, I voted for price correction. But my real prediction, short term (12-18mths): Some areas stagnant, some areas minor correction, some areas major correction.

Luxury high rise is headed for major correction unless you own some choice units in TTDI or Bangsar. MK or KLCC could be hit less hard as well. Other locations, good luck.
BTimes
post Mar 18 2013, 03:37 PM

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Penang and Johor should be up. KL maybe. Others I'm not too sure.
SUSMatrix
post Mar 18 2013, 03:45 PM

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Hot areas won't go down...KL, PJ ...nah. (RM300-500k).....But luxury units will always be the first to be hit whenever a down turn occurs. (Unless of course, in major prime area). But the probability a stagnant will occur , but definitely won't be dropping.

Properties in non-hot areas, these will be the ones, that will be see significant drop.

Anyway, we can all talk...nobody knows for sure what will happen. tongue.gif
skcJVN
post Mar 18 2013, 03:46 PM

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when ppl like u n me have no better way to invest due to the share market being fully controlled by giant GLC n government investment fund . the property price will keep going up even though it is slow some of the time , because this is the only way for us to protect our monetary value .
Lcsx
post Mar 18 2013, 03:59 PM

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QUOTE(skcJVN @ Mar 18 2013, 03:46 PM)
when ppl like u n me have no better way to invest due to the share market being fully controlled by giant GLC n government investment fund . the property price will keep going up even though it is slow some of the time , because this is the only way for us to protect our monetary value .
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+1
twincharger07
post Mar 18 2013, 04:05 PM

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QUOTE(tikaram @ Mar 18 2013, 03:06 PM)
taiko...

let said you live in maluri kepong.

most unit price 620k

suddenly got one fire sale at the same row Rm 460k only  and you confident that u can sell it immediately at 600k

will you buy it or not if u can afford it.

me. I will
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daikor... from investment point of view, sounds like a good bargain that cant resist...

but on personal level, I am running out of bullet leaving 1 shot for own stay smile.gif .. if i stay in Maluri Kepong and got this bargain, why not buy for own stay biggrin.gif
ecin
post Mar 18 2013, 04:38 PM

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hard to predict o, have to see GE
SUSUFO-ET
post Mar 18 2013, 04:46 PM

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QUOTE(Hunakadoo @ Mar 18 2013, 11:41 AM)
friends who working inside maybank and ocbc ,

telling me banker is worrying about 2015 & 2016 , because the most project will be done on the period , and housing could be oversupply , meanwhile house price could be drop when the time
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Banker worry since 1997 crisis, they always worry, somehow one day they will be right nod.gif
Lcsx
post Mar 18 2013, 04:48 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Mar 18 2013, 04:46 PM)
Banker worry since 1997 crisis, they always worry, somehow one day they will be right nod.gif
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+1

Yeah if you worry 20, 30 years. And none of your worries happen then maybe something wrong. Haha.

This post has been edited by Lcsx: Mar 18 2013, 04:49 PM
SUSUFO-ET
post Mar 18 2013, 05:01 PM

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I was a banker before, how a banker perceive thing is different from normal people, like accountant, their mindset is very much influenced by their job nature, their day in & day out dealing with insolvency, reprocess, auction, defaults in payments, blacklisted and bankruptcy cases, you will tend to hv pessimistic thinking.
I was in-charge of hire purchase and housing loan matters back 17 yrs ago (local bank), almost every month we will hv auction and reprocess cases (car / property), the auction list is full of unwanted property, keep repeating every mth, this will influence our (banker) logic thinking.

This post has been edited by UFO-ET: Mar 18 2013, 05:02 PM
katijar
post Mar 18 2013, 05:04 PM

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UFO-ET,

Lucky you were not the loan approval officer...
SUSUFO-ET
post Mar 18 2013, 05:18 PM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Mar 18 2013, 05:04 PM)
UFO-ET,

Lucky you were not the loan approval officer...
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Ya luckily...if not our property mkt already burst and collapse in 2005 biggrin.gif
Nikmon
post Mar 18 2013, 05:27 PM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Mar 18 2013, 05:01 PM)
I was a banker before, how a banker perceive thing is different from normal people, like accountant, their mindset is very much influenced by their job nature, their day in & day out dealing with insolvency, reprocess, auction, defaults in payments, blacklisted and bankruptcy cases, you will tend to hv pessimistic thinking.
I was in-charge of hire purchase and housing loan matters back 17 yrs ago (local bank), almost every month we will hv auction and reprocess cases (car / property), the auction list is full of unwanted property, keep repeating every mth, this will influence our (banker) logic thinking.
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But those people are the first pp have the hard data to tell wen bank will increase rate.

Bank base on hard data and evaluate the risk, those data are taken from the ground, banker..

This post has been edited by Nikmon: Mar 18 2013, 05:29 PM
oxm8
post Mar 18 2013, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Mar 18 2013, 01:13 PM)
new launch (all types) - up
subsale non high end - moderate or stagnant
completed high end - down
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Agreed! adding points

new launch (all types) - up = esp new township phase 1 BBB....latest phase may be on B
subsale non high end - moderate or stagnant = good location nearby LRT/to-be LRT MRT is UP...example Kota Damansara..
completed high end - down = sure down down little bit... huh
Llchieng
post Mar 18 2013, 05:56 PM

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QUOTE(hazairi @ Mar 18 2013, 11:21 AM)
Hi guys,

I know there are many similar threads on this since the last few years but the survey done previously can be considered outdated. Many who were skeptics had already changed their point of view, so you may put your vote on this latest survey.

Thanks! smile.gif
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I vote up up another 50% then crash
SUSUFO-ET
post Mar 18 2013, 06:11 PM

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QUOTE(Nikmon @ Mar 18 2013, 05:27 PM)
But those people are the first pp have the hard data to tell wen bank will increase rate.

Bank base on hard data and evaluate the risk, those data are taken from the ground, banker..
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True, I didn't say they are wrong. But in reality, sometimes in property sector, 1 + 1 =/ 2.
This country is full of "dark" money, you will be surprise some people has so much money, all fr funny channels.
A lot of people under declare theirs' income, even they buy a lot of properties, income tax officer never check, my customer (businessman) never declare income tax since 1997 but can buy car and property, a lot of hanky-panky dealings at the back of the door. A young man age 38 declare 120K income can hv 10 mil property in hand.

If you study the total number of houses vs total populations (KV or developed countries like HK, Singapore and Taiwan), it is obviously oversupply already, so far there is no specific % (surplus) to say the mkt is over supply that will lead to bubble burst, if the whole KV has a total of 100 households (4 family members), then
1) How many houses do we need to supply?
2) How many % oversupply will lead to bubble burst?

I dun think anyone has the answer. That is the difficult part. nod.gif
earlofclarendon
post Mar 18 2013, 06:14 PM

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because of inflation alone i would say there won't be a dip or market correction



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