Those who said property will slump in 2010 are not the same ppl today. U must learn to differentiate between the doomsday ppl and the real investors. Doomsday ppl will always speak negative bout the property any time and they are usually those who cannot afford high end properties themselves. While the real investors are those who know when and what properties to buy into anytime.

I belong to the 2nd group. Im against overpriced projects in non prime areas but ive never told anybody not to buy. I myself bought 2 condo's in Dec last year and am actively looking for my 5th property now. If uve read my earlier posts on other threads, ull know my strategies quite well.

Facts cannot change and the fact is that 35,000 new condo's will be entering the market in 2015 alone with an equal number coming in 2016. Everybody is assuming these condo's will experience at least 15-20% increase in value and despite this there would be sufficient subsale buyers for these condos.

If this was true, do tell me why many of the current projects which have obtained VP, are still experiencing 50% vacancy? Typical case is Solaris Dutamas, Mont Kiara. Despite having the popular Publika Mall below, the residences above are still generally empty. How is this so? If in 2013, there are no buyers, what then would be the condition in 2015/2016? Better?

Im not promote mont kiara but have to clarify something, You have to understand the area, the development, the size and layout, can't fully rely on what people saying, or general data from the news.
You have understand the demand from Jln Kiara, Jln Kiara 3, Kiara 5, kiaramas hillside, and Solaris area. The built-up, the rental price range etc, not all are doing bad, the Korean and Japanese prefer to live with their own community, some condo full of Korean and some are majority Japanese.
For example; In kiaraville, you still can get gross 6.5% return with current subsales price. In Ceriaan, size between 1800-2200sf can still get decent return due to cheap entry price, and also opposite international school, whereas some other bigger size with asking above 9-10k rental not doing well.
You need to understand your target market for your e-tiara, student market? Or others? Foreigner expat will give you less less less and lesser problem compare to student, I have expat tenant for my condo in Bukit Jalil, u know how difficult to get this expat, compare to Mont Kiara, they are everywhere, MK still their top choices bcos the 2 international school, the environment, the quality of neibourhood etc.
You can't just concentrate on subang bcos you're staying there, as a investor, u need to study, survey and familiar other places in klang valley.

You need to do your homework for getting the answer of all your question.
Without familiar with the place, the question will always on your head, u can also sell your existing unit, try to move here, I think you will love it, good for your children too

You can cheap cheap sell your double storey to me, and move in to your 617sf e-tiara

Just to add some points:

The personal debts chart may not included those outside BNM jurisdiction, namely Bafia 1989 and Dfia. So, debts that is off the radar could be much more i.e PTPTN, private loan, unlicensed loan, koperasi loan and etc. So, the figure posted may possibility under reported.

What has triggered the nerve is the recent growth in personal financing that BNM has little power to control, only until the effective implementation of new FSA soon (to control non bank household lending), maybe by the year end. Just to ponder, the avg loan taken last year alone is an increase of over 60%!! The loan takers were mainly youngster aged below 25 with below RM3k income. This is a non collateralize loan and ...... you know how high the risk la.

I believe the overly dependent of Malaysia economy to consumption (new office, house, malls, cars and other households goods) for the past decade and a half (with the lacking focus of improvement real production capacity) is key the current lukewarm employment & job opportunity/development that impairs our labor market salary expansion which couldn't match the GDP growth that is fueled half by consumption  . In order to maintain good lifestyle, average people has to borrow from the future (loan and credits). Who wants to take pain to face reality??

the development is quite staggering, IMO.......

Home mortgage loan is fallen into household debts or in other words, private consumption though it's collateralize with real assets. It depends how you look at it. For me, I tend to agree with the official definition as real estate, unlike business/industrial loan, will not increase the overall productivity for a nation. Case in point is US which is a typical example and Germany is the other side of the coin.

Yes but is cheap and rental yield can get 6%

wow....

this is the best comment for me in  2013 in property lowyat.net

Developed countries like US, Japan, hong kong and Singapore, yes they have have huge spending power.
If you compare most developed countries like in Europe, Australia, Canada. I believe developing countries in Asia have more spending power, people are earning more from business opportunity, stock market, property etc.

gross

Base on this rental, are you able to cover your installment?

The guy is right. He did'nt claim to be an expert in O&G. Goes to show, you don't need too much intellectual power to be financially successful.

the expected slow growth on loan is a major indicator for price reverse.

Agree fully. The chance of rate up is getting higher as days go. The spread between real mortgage rate (not BLR) and 10 yrs MGS is in the narrowest in history[U]! And the recent spike of foreigner holding (on local bonds) has breached 30% due to fled of fund from area like Europe to emerging market. But it is a double edge sword and tend to fly here and there regularly that govt have little control over, unlike the EPF ....

Warning upfront for flippers (especially those with limited resources) hoping to VP in 2014-16 and sell. You might face price pressure (fighting for dwindling buyers) and higher installment cost. A war to fight from 2 fronts with limited bullets. Ask Hitler, he knows it.

I have friend who also hopes everyday for the past several years for the home price in Penang to come down. In the end, he bought a property in Alor Setar for RM200K which has a appreciation to about RM280K after a few years.
Instead of betting solely on home prices to come down, you should have plan B, C and D. Example, If the homes in KL are too expensive, maybe you should consider investing in a property further away, not to stay but as an investment. In KL, rent a place as a home. Your investment property will appreciate (or for rental) and maybe in the future, you can sell it to fund your dream home in KL.

People are getting richer these days.

The average monthly income of Malaysian families rose to RM5,000 in 2012 from just RM4,025 in 2009, according to the latest Household Income Survey.

At the same time, the average monthly income of families living in urban areas rose to RM5,742 from RM4,705 in 2009, while the take home pay of their rural counterparts climbed to RM3,080 from RM2,545 previously.

“The significant income rise was achieved with the federal government’s efforts in ensuring continuous, stable and strong growth in the economy,” said Minister in the Prime Minister’s Department Tan Sri Nor Mohamed Yakcop.

“The impact was via widespread increase in economic opportunities which generated employment with business and industrial development in various economic sectors.”

Moreover, all states posted higher monthly incomes, with Kuala Lumpur clinching the highest growth rate of 14.9 percent (RM5,488 to RM8,586), followed by Labuan’s 12 percent (RM4,407 to RM6,317).

Monthly household income in Perlis rose 10.1 percent (RM2,617 to RM3,538) and 9.1 percent for Terengganu (RM2,617 to RM3,538). Negeri Sembilan’s figure climbed from RM3,540 to RM4,576, while Sabah’s monthly take home pay rose to RM4,013 from RM3,102 previously.

On an ethnic basis, Indians saw the largest increase at nine percent from RM3,999 to RM5,233, closely followed by Chinese at eight percent (RM5,011 to RM6,366), while the average monthly household income of Bumiputeras rose 6.9 percent (RM3,624 to RM4,457).

I agree, and I disagree    I use some numbers so that it is easier to understand

1. If a person with nett income of RM10k pm, and assuming the bank's approved debt to income ratio of 50%, then he can borrow loan(s) with installment up to RM5k pm. That translates to loan(s) of roughly RM1 mil.

2. We have a misconception that flippers/speculators can buy unlimited number of properties, which causes the market to expand into a bubble. But if flippers need to leverage, then he can buy only up to RM1m worth of properties

3. Banks approve loans based on the nett income you are already earning, not future income from expected rental / capital gain on flipping etc
Scenario 1
In 2014-16, flipper/speculator's units VPed. They manage to rent out / sell. Then, all is well for them (not so well for the DDD)

Scenario 2
In 2014-16, flipper/speculator's units VPed. They can't rent out / sell. But he still can afford to service the installment. Because banks approve the loans based on his affordability. This is what many termed it as "holding power"
IMHO, the determinant of market will crash or not does not depend on the number of projects going to VPed in 2014-16 (or any period). The banks need to vet through the loan applications and make sure the buyer can afford. Especially BNM's rule tightening measures of using nett income and 70% LTV rules

This holds true PROVIDED if the country/world economic condition remain unchanged (ie. job still intact, rental market healthy, or interest rate unchanged etc ). In other words, the buyer's "holding power" is not affected. In the event that Malaysia faces recession (lose jobs, hard to rent out, interest rate increase etc), then the scenario becomes totally different. Just imagine a 2% interest rate increase on a RM1 mil loan will be translated to an increase of RM1k installment pm. For those who borrow to the max, that is strenuous to the cashflow. And eventually start off the "bursting of bubble"

You are also assuming they have other expenses 

Anyway, if the time come, the flippers will cut down on "other expenses" rather than going into bankruptcy

In my definition,
Risktaker - a person who knows his risk level, knows the consequence when things against him/her. In most risk taker I kno and seen (including businessman/businesswoman), they are prepare to go into bankruptcy in worst scenario. And in many case, they still can live their life as normal because they'll hav channel another funds out of their name as backup funds.
For those who are not prepare for downturn, they are call - Naive.
Flippers are majorly risk taker, who knows where is their risk and they took it.
Please don't assume most ppl do not kno how to calculate risk. U don't need a Degree to calculate risk, u jus need to kno simple mathematic calculation .

What can be more wrong if they are already prepared for the worst? 

I hav never bother to predict future market movement....
I only prepare and plan for myself things to do when;
1. Market keep going up annually 10-20%
2. Market stagnant, quiet, not much activities.....
3. Market correction, 10-20% down
4. Market clash, 30-40% down....
5. Any mishap tat require cash
6. How to enjoy myself when market up.....