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 V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...

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AppreciativeMan
post Mar 25 2013, 07:00 PM

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QUOTE(Nikmon @ Mar 25 2013, 06:35 PM)
Think too much... Just make simple, the higher rate mean higher risk where it is more sensitive to our economic. That's all. But this does not mean it will create bubble.

Bank will be caution and they might become ur enemy..  rclxms.gif  rclxms.gif
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I don't usually look into economy data... I dislike those data, and I usually don't trust those data.... tongue.gif
I done the calculation simply because I sees so many concern abt it, so I'm curious wat is so big deal abt those debt data..... So after my calculation, frankly I still don't see it as a big deal abt it..... tongue.gif tongue.gif it doesn't reflect a real problem...
That's why I also wants to clarify did I miss out anything in my calculation and assumption...... If there is nothing wrong on my calculation then it further affirm me those data is misleading and confusing.... tongue.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 25 2013, 07:00 PM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 25 2013, 07:39 PM

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QUOTE(Nikmon @ Mar 25 2013, 07:22 PM)
No big deal, even zeti said not bubble. The data is important eventhoug u ignore it. It show the we are at the top, higher debt.  We should feel proud of it, and without your, malayasia can't make to the top.   rclxms.gif
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U are absolutely right!
I wouldn't mind or I shld say I wish...... I'm capable of owing bank 10mil, 50mil or even 100mil.... drool.gif drool.gif drool.gif

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 25 2013, 07:40 PM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 25 2013, 08:49 PM

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QUOTE(Rooney1985 @ Mar 25 2013, 08:37 PM)
Calculation looks fine but assumption that household consists of one person may not be true... .... Nice try though... Lol!!! Buy buy buy tomorrow prices going up... Hehe
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doh.gif doh.gif doh.gif
Does it make a difference in the calculation answer on different number of ppl???
Nice try..... rclxms.gif rclxms.gif
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 25 2013, 10:40 PM

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QUOTE(cybermaster98 @ Mar 25 2013, 10:12 PM)
Then tell me whats going wrong in Solaris Dutamas? The small units are as vacant as the bigger ones.
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My personal opinion,
1. Location
a. this place not really in Mont Kiara zone.
b. too near to the gov offices where u sees thousands of dispatch and others passing the place...
c. u think expat likes Mosque?
d. access, the easy access is from Jln duta, Jln Kuching side.... Although is so near to MK, but getting there through MK is not convenient at all...
2. Project - it hav quite numbers of small size units there.... So it's definitely competitive...
Lastly, I don't see the retail there is doing well in the day......

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 25 2013, 10:48 PM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 27 2013, 10:11 AM

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[quote=Nepo,Mar 27 2013, 09:53 AM]Indeed, it is a very good advice.

Timing (controllable...cash standby for good time) Timing depend on wat u referring, if u jus meant 'when to invest' then yes its controllable. If referring to good timing or not, then uncontrollable because u won't kno hav u invested on the right time or not until things happen.
Patient (controllable, your character)
Courage (controllable, your character)
Knowledge (controllable,read more)
Experience (controllable, do more)
Luck (uncontrollable)
Connection (uncontrollable).. Controllable, it's abt socializing.

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 27 2013, 10:24 AM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 27 2013, 10:19 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Mar 27 2013, 10:16 AM)
I learnt
When you are a tycoon, whatever shxx you say will be a golden rule.
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Jus like an Artist, when u are famous..... Jus throw paint on wall, it'll become piece of precious Art.
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 27 2013, 10:52 AM

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QUOTE(Nepo @ Mar 27 2013, 10:42 AM)
It is uncontrollable to meet the persons you want to meet.
e.g. Do you want to socialize with  Ah Jir Gor?
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If u hav an intention to meet someone then u can find means and ways to meet different ppl to reach there. If its someone u don't want to meet and u met, it's your choice to continue to get the connection going or not.
It would be like changing of character from impatient to patient, from timid to courageous.... U may go through some struggling.... U can change your circles of friends...

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 27 2013, 10:53 AM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 27 2013, 04:50 PM

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QUOTE(Halamdar @ Mar 27 2013, 04:35 PM)
Hehe, as I mentioned, EVEN with FIXED rate =/= fool proved.

What if I lost my job, can I still service the loan repayment....if so many property loan > I will die die die and fast fast too. ( BBB fast fast >>>> DDD fast fast)

Dont tell me O, my job is secured... only  thing I will ask is are you 100 percent sure ? and how can u be 100 percent sure ?

During economy crises, No One will be spared. What will make a BIG difference > are you prepared for it ?

Just my 3 cp biggrin.gif
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U earns my vote!! thumbup.gif
Not because u not in debt (because I'm a debt person, the more the merrier drool.gif ), but because your crystal clear plan in your future and importantly..... u don't complain and u don't condemn!! notworthy.gif notworthy.gif

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 27 2013, 04:59 PM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 28 2013, 06:39 PM

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It's easier to find desperate buyer than desperate seller.... At least till now....
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 29 2013, 09:50 AM

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In my definition,
Risktaker - a person who knows his risk level, knows the consequence when things against him/her. In most risk taker I kno and seen (including businessman/businesswoman), they are prepare to go into bankruptcy in worst scenario. And in many case, they still can live their life as normal because they'll hav channel another funds out of their name as backup funds.
For those who are not prepare for downturn, they are call - Naive.
Flippers are majorly risk taker, who knows where is their risk and they took it.
Please don't assume most ppl do not kno how to calculate risk. U don't need a Degree to calculate risk, u jus need to kno simple mathematic calculation .

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 29 2013, 09:52 AM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 29 2013, 10:53 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 29 2013, 10:50 AM)
And what do you call the risk takers that calculated wrongly despite taking all precautions?  biggrin.gif
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What can be more wrong if they are already prepared for the worst? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 29 2013, 10:54 AM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 29 2013, 11:09 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 29 2013, 10:56 AM)
Well, unless you have a crystal ball that could 100% accurately tell you what will happen in the future, how do you know whether your preparation could cover the worst?

Anyway, if you go max in preparing the worst, you won't be investing already....

You will avoid risk to avert disaster...
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I hav never bother to predict future market movement....
I only prepare and plan for myself things to do when;
1. Market keep going up annually 10-20%
2. Market stagnant, quiet, not much activities.....
3. Market correction, 10-20% down
4. Market clash, 30-40% down....
5. Any mishap tat require cash
6. How to enjoy myself when market up..... tongue.gif
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 29 2013, 11:18 AM

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Actually I'm more to disagree on using a few data and statistic to determine how the market situation... The real situation is always more detail info needed.... Everything is changing so drastically, those simple data and statistic doesn't provide any insight of situation....
Eg: From 2008 to 2012
My debt grew - 400%
Does that means I'm in trouble?
NO. Not necessary. Because....
My liquid cash grew - 600%
Does tat means I'm safe?
NO. Not necessary. Because.....
My debt in 2008 is 500k, 2012 is 2mil
My liquid cash 100k in 2008, 600k in 2012
In %, my cash/debt is 20% in 2008, 30% in 2012.... By percentage I'm doing better, by figure I'm in higher risk as i now have 1.4mil debt.
Does tat means I'm in deep trouble?
NO. Not necessary again......
2008: Debt 500k, Asset Value 600k, debt/asset 83% (real deep trouble)
2012: Debt 2mil, Asset Value 5mil, debt/asset 40%
This also means tat I'm now more sustaining to market correction!
Data, statistic tat give a general view doesn't spell out the real scenario. There are many possibilities and detail tat one have to look into.
I don't mean everybody are the same, I'm saying don't judge by a simple data or statistic, to look into real problem, there is more to it then those data.
P/s: I can still continue to change my above example to a different situation. tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 29 2013, 11:20 AM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 29 2013, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 29 2013, 11:16 AM)
Market crash 60-70% down, then how...?  biggrin.gif

somebody prepare for that....oooo....
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Fly off from your e-tiara together la.... laugh.gif
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 29 2013, 03:47 PM

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QUOTE(White Skin Treasures @ Mar 29 2013, 02:18 PM)
Can I ask a stupid question? Hypothetically - what if the crash really happens, and market value slump by 30%,
- What the rich with holding power will do?
- What will the middle income fully leveraged will do?
- What will the down camp will do - for middle income group with average savings?
- Life goes on for the poor?
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1. Since they're rich and with holding power, they'll continue holding it and probably purchase more
2. Since they're fully leverage, that will means they are in trouble. They'll have to cut their lost and if its insufficient then they may go into bankruptcy.
3. If u are asking on 'middle income with average down camp group' then I'll see still no action from them.
Reason 1: Prop price may be cheaper but they may still need almost the same amt (or could be more) of cash to purchase prop
Eg 500k prop,
90% LTV, cash up front 50k
70% LTV, cash up front 150k
If market has a correction of 30%, bear in mind that bank will give lower valuation preparing for the worst too..
500k - 30% = 350k, bank value will be easily 10-15% different.
If bank value 300k,
90% LTV, cash up front (350k-300k) + (300k x 10%) = 80k
70% LTV, cash up front (350k-300k) + (300k x 30%) = 140k
Reason 2: Fear. When bank gives lower value, greater fear will occur tat price going down further, or what if they lose their job at this time and etc.
4. Who knows.... Maybe it become opportunities to them..... tongue.gif
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 29 2013, 05:39 PM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Mar 29 2013, 04:07 PM)
Do this. Refinance all the properties you have. that amount put in ASNB while waiting for a crash if takut la sangat. win2 situation.
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For which group u suggesting this? shakehead.gif
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 29 2013, 05:57 PM

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QUOTE(Halamdar @ Mar 29 2013, 05:05 PM)
I am just curious, what is your opinion :

(1) How much net assets to be considered to be Rich, Middle class, or Poor ?

(2) How much income before tax to be considered to be High, Middle and Low income group ?

(3) From what I can see, it seems the ppl who have the holding power > 1 million USD net assets at least.

And usually I would assume these ppl predominately at 45 > 50 age group ?

Last question : what is the percentage of the ppl or NUMBER of ppl you think in Malaysia have these holding power ? Considering the amount of the properties that are on loan...

Thank you biggrin.gif
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Different ppl different definition... I see a gal as pretty doesn't mean u see the same.... tongue.gif
The basic definition in poor, middle, rich for me is:
Poor - struggle to earn a living for those most basic needs such as a shelter, food, clothing..... Need to calculate every single penny on expenses... Hardly hav any savings...... In short, survive day to day basis...
Middle - Range will be wider.... On a job (can be self employed, businessman, or professionals), earning enough, basic need is not their most worrying but their future income, and expenses.... In short having the ability to plan for tomorrow but not to the extend of no worries.
Rich - Basically no worries about money.... Future have been taken care of too already....

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 29 2013, 05:59 PM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 30 2013, 09:33 AM

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QUOTE(Halamdar @ Mar 29 2013, 07:00 PM)
Haha biggrin.gif

So from your definition, law of gravity still apply to the vast majority of ppl who has 3 + properties on loan, IF there is a 25 %+ market correction .

Just same random thought, could the properties go up and up and up , and ALL the ppl become overnight millionaires' due to properties appreciation tongue.gif  ? I know, I know, that depends on the general household income growth to support the property price.

Thank you biggrin.gif
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rclxub.gif rclxub.gif rclxub.gif
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 30 2013, 09:44 AM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Mar 29 2013, 11:50 PM)
Ok, you never openly "say" you switched side. But your "action" is a major betrayal to the DDD camp. 

If even you (who so firmly believe the market will collapse soon) can make a decision to buy a property at this time (a pigeon hole at RM600+ somemore  doh.gif ), it is the best wake up call for the DDD camp to reassess their belief of property bubble bursting soon. Look where has your buddy joeblow gone ? Probably busy searching for a pigeon hole near Subang ? laugh.gif
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He said, 'it is never in my calculations when I buy props.' tongue.gif
6xx+ psf doesn't matter to him, so long below 500k. Correct lawyer?? tongue.gif tongue.gif
hmm.gif hmm.gif
Wonder would he buy a 500sf prop at 400k since psf is not in his concern..... hmm.gif hmm.gif
AppreciativeMan
post Apr 1 2013, 11:40 AM

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Fuyoooh.... Subject changed ya?..... I thought I clicked the wrong thread.... laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
Ppl who complain or being negative will not admit as they are....
Jus like a person drunk... Tell him u drunk already, he'll say, "No, no... I'm not drunk"
tongue.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif

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