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 V10 - Property Prices (Up, Down or .....), and the debate goes on and on and on ...

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AppreciativeMan
post Mar 15 2013, 11:19 PM

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Price won't move much before or after GE.... It is wat they implement in the policy regardless which party affecting the prop prices....
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 15 2013, 11:25 PM

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QUOTE(all blacks @ Mar 15 2013, 11:22 PM)
I think it depends on location.. If you look at location such as Puchong and Kinara area the price is on high end n it keeps rising steadily.. On the other side places like Alam Impian, Setia Alam and Denai Alam the price is kind of stagnant.. Nt too much of increase or decrease in price in recent times..
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+1
As I'm familiar with TmnDesa... Price don't drop during financial crisis, it jus stagnant... However during up market, they jus follow....
However, can't deny.... For any correction, high end Condo of 660k-800k and above could have higher correction possibilities than condo value 660k and below...
Eg.. High end may move around 20-30%, while medium end (600k or less) could move around 10-20%....

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 15 2013, 11:36 PM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 16 2013, 01:24 AM

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QUOTE(satrianeo-x @ Mar 16 2013, 01:11 AM)
Maabbnnnnnnnn gov. Now like pepper And salt fuesss it stewpit. I side no on ene. Neitherr bn nor bn. Trust yourself.
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+1
Humans hav limitless ability and capability.... Why depend on someone else to spoon feed u? Go use your time, effort and energy to find better solutions.
'If there is a problem, there is a solution. If there is no solution then that is not a problem, it's a fact.'
So stop worrying and be happy....
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 16 2013, 08:45 AM

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QUOTE(sleekx @ Mar 16 2013, 03:12 AM)
Sure price wont drop ?

http://www.propwall.my/classifieds/965722/...e-by-kitty-chan
seems 2013 price is lower to me.. at least for subsale
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Sure drop or no drop nobody will kno.
But if u sees only 1-2 prop differ in those website it doesn't means a drop....
Eg 2009, prop A bank value 700k, advertise selling at 1M....
No buyer.
2012, prop A bank value 750k, advertise selling at 900k.
Above scenario consider price drop or no drop???

AppreciativeMan
post Mar 20 2013, 11:53 AM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Mar 20 2013, 01:06 AM)
Like this is not fair bro. one owner may sell higher or lower than another. so how do you categorize this? I give u one example. I have been looking for a shoplot in one area (not in KV)
Lot A: asking price RM680K, Rental RM3300/monthly

Lot B (next to A only): asking price RM810K, Rental RM3600/monthly

Lot C (in another row but not so far from Lot A and B): asking price: RM600K, Rental RM2800/month

Bank valuation for all stucked at: RM600K.

So how do you categorize this? You will also pening, I guarantee you.

a) If I buy Lot A, would you say the market has dropped? Valuation is still below asking price. 85% loan only. But ROI is at 5.8%
b) If I buy Lot B, what is your comment pulak? Valuation is still below asking price., Same 85% loan. ROI is at 5.3%
c) If I buy Lot C, what is your comment pulak? Valuation is at par with asking price. Same 85% loan. ROI is at 5.6%
Not easy to categorize this part rclxub.gif None of the owners are willing to reduce the price because all said rental can cover installment. All are confident that rental can go even higher.so if one would wanna buy, asking price will be transacted price. owner's way or the highway.
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Seriously bro, is there a needed to consider which to pick if it has to choose one?
C) is definitely the choice!
Reason: Having the Rental Yield means current earning or earning of tenure in contract which may fluctuate in future, whereas Purchase Price is Permanent!
The one question to ask yourself is, if contract end or tenant leave, can u get back the same rental (I presume the rental rate is on the higher end)?
The same logic like residential unit;
A) Rental 3.5k, selling 600k, gross 7%
B) Rental 2.5k, selling 500k, gross 6%
If i hav to choose one, I'll still choose B)
In anytime or upon tenancy ends, I can push up rental or worst I spent some money to Reno and still I can ask higher rental. What about the 600k unit, if the rental is already at the higher end? What other strategy can u take to reach tat 3.5k once current tenant left?
Good luck!
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 20 2013, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(kochin @ Mar 20 2013, 11:56 AM)
i'll choose the one with the most likelihood of staying on and with good and profitable business.
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Jus my view point....
Nobody can guarantee a long term tenant right, even if it's a 3++3+3 contract, company go burst what can we do? Unless u got Bank as tenant ya....
However lower purchase price will be something tat is definite advantage. Isn't it?
Is there something I missed? hmm.gif

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 20 2013, 12:17 PM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 20 2013, 01:20 PM

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QUOTE(AMINT @ Mar 20 2013, 12:39 PM)
hoaaaa. many replied to my reply. smile.gif thanks guys. Anyway in my opinion, there is a reason why C is lagging behind. It is on the road that not many cars flowing as compared to A and B. If you ask me, I will definitely choose B because in commercial, I believe, die die must buy good facing (doesnt necessary mean facing main road coz based on my analysis it all depends on flow of traffic. there are some shoplots not facing main road getting more traffic than those facing main road). Anyway, these are the businesses of individual lots:

A: Kedai perabot

B: Kedai langsir

C: Kedai perabot

From my observation, B's business is thriving while lot A and C are competing with each other. However, take note buying B needs RM170K and one will have a risk of having trouble to sell back due to low valuation. One day, valuation might keep up with the price one will pay but it will take a while.
Anyway, what do you guys think with these investments? Good or bad or risky or what?

If you ask me, for a bumi, one better put his money like this:

Put in whatever one has in AS1M, ASN and take loan for RM400K in ASB. ROI combined would be around 7%. no pening2 with tenant, no pening2 to sell back.

Unless Lot A, B and C future capital appreciation and rental incremental are substantial. This is why sometimes I always ask myself to weigh between rental and other investments.

For flipping, provided one has bought at good development, this is a sure win if one can sell with a profit by taking into consideration of rpgt as well.
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Well, if the location is different then of course it is a factor to consider.
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 23 2013, 09:52 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 23 2013, 09:41 PM)
I still do. In my opinion, props in kl city centre, mont kiara and damansara are insane.

And I NEVER said that I won't invest. I just said I won't touch anything more than 500k with a barge pole. biggrin.gif

Which is true. I only bought it as it is only 410k @ 617 sq feet.
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biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif
410k @ 617sf = 664psf @ Subang Jaya SS16
480k @ 725sf = 662psf @ Mont Kiara
Which one price more insane? tongue.gif
Nevertheless, congrats your upgrade in prop portfolio... rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif

AppreciativeMan
post Mar 23 2013, 10:01 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 23 2013, 09:59 PM)
And which prop is that in Mont kiara?
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Izen dude
U think I'll talk abt those lower grade condo?

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 23 2013, 10:03 PM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 23 2013, 10:10 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 23 2013, 10:03 PM)
Not familiar with that place. Also, there are projects that claim at they are in Mont Kiara when they are not.

Finally, what are the rental yield like?
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Not familiar Mont Kiara then u say Mont Kiara over price?
One Mont Kiara along Jln Kiara u kno where or not?.....
biggrin.gif biggrin.gif biggrin.gif
I hope tat your asking is not with an intention of finding fault.
I'm getting 7% gross after including cost furnishing and legal fees.....
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 23 2013, 10:36 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 23 2013, 10:28 PM)
Don't be so smug.

I said I am not familiar with your development, not that I don't know mont kiara  biggrin.gif .

Anyway, I checked the props all and non of your condos is selling below 500k for both I-zen 1 & 2.

So yeah to me it is overpriced sub sale wise.

For all I know that you have bought your props before the prices shoot up to insane levels.

The prop I bought could give at least 12% return now, provided you bought it 5 years ago.

Now at best 5.3%.

So yeah, I still say the prop prices is too high.
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laugh.gif laugh.gif laugh.gif
Dude, u really eating lots of your own words ya.....
Don't assume!
I bought it 4-5 mths back only ok....
Where u check? Online prop website?..... Is tat a transacted price or asking price?
U really hav a great entertainment for many forummer here tonight..... rclxms.gif rclxms.gif rclxms.gif
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 23 2013, 10:44 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 23 2013, 10:39 PM)
Like I said, I don't look into any price except the prices for sale.

I just did an impromptu search at propwall.

Nothing below 500k.

As far as I am concerned, you are buying an overpriced property that could be liable for correction.

Mine as well. I am buying mine because I know worse comes to worse I can hold it.
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Bargain prop for prime location or unit u don't need advertisement!
Those tat still need to advertise or going into auction are hardly prime location or units.
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 23 2013, 11:02 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 23 2013, 10:50 PM)
Or if you are lucky like I am this round.

Problem is, it does not happen that easily.

otherwise people would not be complaining of too high prices.

Also, tell me, does your unit rent out easily, honestly.

Bear in mind mont kiara is packed with condos.

I only risk buying mine because I know I have a steady supply of students willing to rent my unit.

Yield is not good compared to the price I paid.
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Therefore, don't condemn when u are not familiar....
Along Jalan Kiara, there is a lack of supply of 1 bedroom units (at least for now, before Arcoris & Kiara 163 complete)
And u bet, I get to choose my specific tenants in less than 2 wk, with my demanded rental some more. And it's Jap tenant, which most investor will agree they are the best tenant group....
My conclusion is simple, everywhere there is a hidden gem, good or bad don't judge by the surface or minimal knowledge.
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 24 2013, 01:50 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 24 2013, 08:20 AM)
I still bet that it is not easy to rent mont kiara props as compared to props in subang.

Otherwise, there wouldn't be darkness in many units of condos there like I observed.

The developers have overbuilt and priced the props there too high to absorb all the expat demand like you mentioned.

Mont kiara is still overpriced.
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Still don't understand.....
doh.gif doh.gif doh.gif
I can confirm... 纸上谈兵
U are full of thoery but with limited physical knowledge.... BBB more U'll start to learn more.... tongue.gif tongue.gif
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 24 2013, 01:52 PM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Mar 24 2013, 11:55 AM)
+1

The feeling is like arguing with someone who strongly condemn gay, but later confess he has turned gay himself, and still argue with you "i never say i will not turn gay...."  laugh.gif
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+1
thumbup.gif thumbup.gif thumbup.gif
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 24 2013, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(lqcevox @ Mar 24 2013, 06:54 PM)
Vote for stagnant 1st half year because most people waiting for election and 2nd half will slightly increase because people back to BBB mode after election.
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I was neutral all the while.... However this weekend I think I'm leaning towards upside already.... LYF famous lawyer super confident correction or crash coming anytime, also jus plunge in to buy a prop at 664psf last week.... Who cares GE coming or not.... Or who says ppl waiting for GE over?..... tongue.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 24 2013, 07:10 PM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 25 2013, 02:52 PM

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QUOTE(Nikmon @ Mar 25 2013, 01:00 PM)
Nice work, we are at the top now. Congratulations.
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Correct me if I'm wrong on the following calculation....
140% Debts/Disposable Household Income
If Mr Z debt amt 300,000
Disposable Income = 300,000/1.4 = 214,285 (Annual income after Tax)
Mr Z monthly income = 214,285/12 = 17,857 (after tax)
300,000 monthly payment est 1,500, I'll round off to 2,000
Mr Z income for other expenses after debt payment monthly = 17,857 - 2,000 = 15,857

I'm not into economic study or whatsoever, jus wonder anything wrong on my calculation? hmm.gif hmm.gif hmm.gif

And this does not included or concern on assets value too right? If the asset value 1,000,000 now? hmm.gif hmm.gif

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 25 2013, 02:54 PM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 25 2013, 05:01 PM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Mar 25 2013, 04:20 PM)
I think you are thinking all household debt are related to property debt, correct ? If you are referring to household debt, the usual bank guideline will be between 40%-60% of net income. Ie. If RM10k pm / RM120k pa net income, you can probably afford a property about RM1 mil. So the debt/income should be 8-10 times. What is 1.4 times ? Just chicken feet ratio   laugh.gif  Especially like you said, value of properties is going up in long term.

Unfortunately household debt is not property debt only. It includes car debt, credit card debt, personal loan (don't know if education loan included or not, but I think is is part of the household debt).

In the reporting http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/malaysi...hold-debt-rises, the 4th last paragraph says "The bulk of the growth was contributed by the non-bank financial institution segment (NBFI) such as Bank Rakyat Sdn Bhd and Malaysia Building Society Bhd (MBSB), as concern grows over their lending to the lower-income segments." I think this is attributed to the personal loan to mainly government servant. If you are a government servant with RM4000 monthly salary, the bank will approve you RM200,000 of personal loan.

These personal loan (and car and credit card loan) may be "non-productive loans", meaning it is consumption based instead of investment based (like property loan). So 140% is alarming if we compare to other countries. If the economy slows down, people start to lose their jobs, or interest rate increases, then we will feel the effect of servicing the debt. Suddenly, we need to use additional 20% of our income just to pay the installment.
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I'm aware debt inclusive of car loan, credit card outstanding and personal loan.... Tat is the reason why I rounded of the monthly installment to 2k.... Or I shld put it higher.... Lets say 4k monthly repayment in total....
Similarly working backwards, 17,857 - 4,000 = 13,857, there is still 13,857 balance for other expenditure....
Or I'll do another calculation,
Mr Y Disposable income 5,000 mthly, basing on 140% ratio again what will be his debt amt?
(5,000x12) x 1.4 = 84,000 (debt)
I base on 6% interest, 15 yrs repayment, mthly repayment will be est 710 mthly, lets round off to 1,000
5,000 (income) - 1,000 (all debts) = 4,000 balance for other expenditure....
Any wrong on the following calculation again?
Forget abt if there is any asset included in the debt....

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 25 2013, 05:04 PM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 25 2013, 05:14 PM

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QUOTE(tat3179 @ Mar 25 2013, 03:50 PM)
You ask Appreciative Manlah why Mont Kiara some still empty...

He is bullish about that place....can get 7% rental yield while buying middle of last year.... biggrin.gif

Me, I am just happy even if it is 5.3%. At least above inflation rate of 4%.

Still need to park my cash somewhere else than equities, and sorry, gold is out for me...
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Aiyo.... Bullish is too strong a word to use ya.... And I hav never said tat.... We are not in court, don't try to put words into my mouth ya.... tongue.gif tongue.gif tongue.gif
Thanks zuiko for explaining....
Frankly in general, MK large unit is tough to rent... But units as in 1-2 bedroom, u'll hav a larger choice of expat group.
Believe it or not.... 1 bedroom is really high demand along Jln Kkiara like I says earlier.... Tat is why the yield can be high.... And there is still more in depth detail why I say I-zen is good....
And still a strong YES to MK for long term potential.... As I mention b4, the good quality condo will be in strong demand 10-20 yrs later....
Jus to add, more quality local are really moving into MK... My left and right neighbor are locals too, both 2 bedroom size unit.....

This post has been edited by AppreciativeMan: Mar 25 2013, 05:23 PM
AppreciativeMan
post Mar 25 2013, 05:38 PM

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QUOTE(EddyLB @ Mar 25 2013, 05:24 PM)
I agree to your calculation.

As to whether the ratio is high or not, let's compare to other countries. You can see the chart in the last page. Malaysia household debt / disposal income ratio is very high

Also depends on what type of debt. If you earn RM60k pa, and you have a housing loan of RM84k, I think it is low.

But if you earn RM60k pa, and you have a credit card loan of RM84k, I think it is high
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Yes agreed.
Therefore the general data doesnt give a in depth insight of situation.... Unless there is a break down of different debt.... Or how many percent of the debt belongs to housing, and how many percentage goes to those unproductive loan....
Like u mention, different country, what if Msia debt 80% belong to housing.... Whereas Japan for example 80% is unproductive debt? The comparison also doesn't make sense anymore isn't it?....

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