QUOTE(kimyee73 @ May 16 2013, 08:23 AM)
The most important thing is not when to get in but when to get out. If you listen to news or analyst etc., they will tell you when to buy but never when to sell. If you know when to sell you'll cut your loses short. Housing may not be a good example as it is not easy to liquidate. With stock or UT, you don't want to keep your stock during downturn as you can make better use of the cash during this period. Also if you lose your job during this recession, your money go stuck in the equity.
For exampe, if you have rm100k in UT, 50K in fix & 50K in equity. When market went down by 10% on equity side, you forced rebalance to 20-80. Now you have rm19k in equity and 76k in fixed. If market went down worst case by 50% on equity side, your UT value is now rm11.5k in equity and rm76k in fixed, total 87.5k. I'm assuming fixed income did not suffer drawdown just for illustration.
Now, example if you use normal rebalancing. When market down by 10% in equity, you perform normal rebalance. Let see how the value ended up by the time market went down by 50%. 10% (47.5k fixed,47.5k equity), 20% (45k,45k), 30%(43k, 43k), 40%(41k,41k) and finally 50%(39k,39k).
If you follow normal rebalancing you ended up with about rm78k versus if you force rebalance, you still have rm87.5k. I stand corrected if my math is out a bit

Sounds more like "Forced cut-loss" / "flight to safety", rather than "forced re-balancing". Re-balancing - "to bring back to balance or planned" right?
anyhow, semantics only, pardon my Yinglish Nazi-sm
IMHO, the concept works fine... IF kaka really hits the fan, ie. a drop of 40% or more.
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What if AFTER one cuts lost
eg. shifting from Equities 50: Fixed Income 50
to a defensive stance of Equities 20: Fixed Income 80 triggered by a mere 10% fall in equities
AND
the equity market rises, like in mid-late 2011?
Using similar concept of cut-loss / flight to safety but even upping the trigger to 20% fall in equities
same kaka as above or may be even worse in terms of cost of switching + opportunity lost
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My point of thoughts are:
1. How many times, when the equities market falls, it fall BEYOND 30%?
2. Being a worker (ie work for $), my major point is that i'm just allocating $ into a few asset classes (and regions).
Thus, like allocating my grocery shopping $.
eg.
For meat - i'd buy chicken if it's cheaper/more value VS lamb, or vice-versa
thus, translating into investment vehicles,
i'd buy equity funds if it's of more value VS fixed income funds.
When will A be of more value than B?
When A's cost (ie price) has fallen enough.
Just a personal thought concept yar - investing and trading is a mix of art & science. No perfect right/wrong approach
If it's just art - i'll be dead in the water (my EQ sucks

)
If it's just science/maths - all the ivory tower professors & accountants will be multi-millionaires
This post has been edited by wongmunkeong: May 16 2013, 08:54 AM