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 STOCK MARKET DISCUSSION V128, YAT YEE FATT !!!!

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foofoosasa
post Feb 10 2013, 09:10 AM

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QUOTE(ben3003 @ Feb 9 2013, 05:41 PM)
ok la i used some extravagant words biggrin.gif Yup, China stocks are very cheap, compare banking sector to msia one, like PBE, which is overvalued by 2 times more thanks to ppl goreng. China one maybe 20% overvalue. Plus their market cap is bigger.

So bro, why suddenly those HK listed china company share price dropped recently? becos of CNY ppl need money? lolz..
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Well said,Chinese Bank probably the cheapest bank but quality not too bad that I can found for blue chips around the world. 80% ++ of my portfolio are there drool.gif

The reason of dropping,hmm.. I dunno tongue.gif .But from my observation, most foreign investor unwilling to buy those small H-shares, probvably due to poor corporate governance and a lot of scandal accounting. so those share pretty much owned by the chinese instead of of foreigner. so all have almost similar thinking biggrin.gif biggrin.gif.
foofoosasa
post Feb 10 2013, 07:49 PM

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QUOTE(Veda @ Feb 10 2013, 03:38 PM)
I've no idea ... but corrections/dips after a strong run are perfectly normal. I'm fully invested (99% in overseas stocks) and my picks mostly blue chips, all fundamentally strong - so I no longer monitor them every day or week.

I see u are a TA guy. IMHO, ABC is not as fundamentally strong as the other Big 4 banks (higher NPL etc) but offers higher growth due to its exposure to rural areas.
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I guess our portfolio pretty much similar then. icon_idea.gif

foofoosasa
post Feb 10 2013, 11:09 PM

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QUOTE(Veda @ Feb 10 2013, 10:30 PM)
Except my portfolio is not so heavily concentrated in financials  icon_idea.gif
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Any bargain beside banks? probably insurance and some telco H-share?

hmm.gif
foofoosasa
post Feb 11 2013, 08:16 AM

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QUOTE(Veda @ Feb 11 2013, 12:01 AM)
Some consumer discretionary, construction and retail/supermarket stocks may be worth considering  icon_idea.gif
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OH yea, I forgot about retail and supermarket. I do own them too. For consumer,I only owned very few of them because I think most people hoarding their cash into these stocks. Whilr for construction stock, not really interested... nod.gif
foofoosasa
post Feb 11 2013, 08:28 AM

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QUOTE(yok70 @ Feb 10 2013, 06:49 PM)
No. I was asking about PBV, price book value ratio.  biggrin.gif
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Yok, from bloomberg data, it is about 1.3.
But for me, uncle buffet once taught us, quote "you no need to know a women's age by telling whether she is old or not". I think these bank are quite cheap without even value them seriously.
The most important is people understand the downward risk of bank.
Beside all the Non performing loan (hardly to tell now,because banks tends doing good when economy good, but bad during people unable to pay loans) issues, Basel 3 will challenge some of the bank's reserve requirement because some of them are overstated due to unqualified capital such as preferred shared is included in their reserve calculation.

Other issues such as convertible bond, while convertible at the premium of these stock certain % of price, will diluting the existing holder. Just make sure those those convertible are not issued price that are too low and with large quantity.

Hope these help nod.gif

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Feb 11 2013, 08:28 AM
foofoosasa
post Feb 14 2013, 11:02 AM

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wah, the volume made me sleepy today. want to trade something...
foofoosasa
post Feb 14 2013, 11:22 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Feb 14 2013, 11:05 AM)
Got tips kah, Brother laugh.gif

Happy CNY icon_rolleyes.gif
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No tips la, Just want to trade something for fun.
Actually this question is suppose I ask you tongue.gif
but see the volume aiyo ohmy.gif

foofoosasa
post Feb 14 2013, 11:45 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Feb 14 2013, 11:37 AM)
wow someone sapu Digi in 16000 lots hmm.gif

Kinda insider trading  yawn.gif

UEM is also not bad..........
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ok noted sifu notworthy.gif
foofoosasa
post Feb 18 2013, 11:25 AM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Feb 18 2013, 11:03 AM)
hmm.gif no more ohms in KLSE before the GE..............

brows.gif or let us discuss what impact to local business if PKR win?

laugh.gif I start, if PKR win..............
1. Sell call to proton and MBMR as PKR promised to withdraw the vehicle import tax
2. Buy call to TChong or those vehicle import company

hmm.gif What the impact if PKR withdraw the PLUS's fees?
so all subsidy by govn, it should no impact to small shareholder right?
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Politician like to give sweet promise but seldom execute for (2).
foofoosasa
post Feb 18 2013, 12:16 PM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Feb 18 2013, 11:40 AM)
laugh.gif honestly said, I hope BN win.

based on their "promises"
BN is beneficial to businessman
PKR is all beneficial to residents

unless you can cash out 100% from share market now
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Capitalist spotted tongue.gif .

foofoosasa
post Feb 18 2013, 06:39 PM

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LOL, today all forumer talking about politics.
foofoosasa
post Feb 20 2013, 06:42 PM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Feb 20 2013, 06:26 PM)
hmm.gif All analyst talk bad of market in short term
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Pls talk more tongue.gif I didn't press the "buy" button enough. cry.gif
foofoosasa
post Feb 20 2013, 10:46 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Feb 20 2013, 07:11 PM)
My buy button kinda rosak, can buy occasionally.

Maybe in line with market mood.............
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I just wish some good correction to few blue chips. Some fresh ammo are ready blush.gif

We still don't see any GE effect to stock market yet anyway. hmm.gif Anyway just stay away and see how market mood first.
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post Feb 20 2013, 10:53 PM

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QUOTE(cristiano7mu @ Feb 20 2013, 10:48 PM)
Hi guys,

recently I am looking at Dialog and today I read few research report by few houses. Most of the researcher used DCF with diff WACC.

Just wondering how do they determined the WACC and where do they obtain the CF for each Centralised Terminal Facilties(CTF).

Since each terminal Cash Flow are not provided publicly and each research house report has diff CF for the same CTF. Hence I am curious how these analyst figure out each terminal Cash flow then.

Pls refer to the attachment for the screenshot.

Maybank report: Kertih CTF: WACC - 10.5%
Amresearch report: Kertih CTF: WACC - 7%
RHB report: Kertih CTF: WACC - 7.2%
OSK report: Kertih CTF: WACC - 6%

Anyone here und how they derived the Value for each CTF?
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For me, the adjustment of the WACC just to achieve their own object. If the want to value XYZ stock higher, just put the WACC lower. Just pluck in the number to make the value appear inline with their objective brows.gif .

That why I never trust any research valuation. Pretty bullshit in my opinion.

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Feb 20 2013, 10:53 PM
foofoosasa
post Feb 20 2013, 11:09 PM

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QUOTE(cristiano7mu @ Feb 20 2013, 10:59 PM)
hahaha i was thinking the same but how bout the DCF part? Any idea how they determine the CF?

DCF =  CF / (1 + wacc) etc etc etc

They simply adjust wacc to get what they want. CF part Also simply come out with an amount to get the DCF they wanted?
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Pretty much the same I think, just they back by some "prove" ( pretty bad prove). Probably put in scenario cast like in worst,best or normal etc etc and then estimate the cash flow based on the past year data. Fancy & Complicated.

And their value often get adjust by market sentiments too. laugh.gif
foofoosasa
post Feb 21 2013, 12:09 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Feb 21 2013, 12:02 AM)
Well, CI at 1600plus is no where near Bottom ( to scoop up  many as we like  )

What goes up . sooner or later would come down.

Not talking about  the magic,  but just some little bit of logic.

Patience, patience and more patience  icon_rolleyes.gif
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rclxms.gif rclxms.gif

Anyway who are the net buyer the recent weeks? hmm.gif
foofoosasa
post Feb 21 2013, 01:35 PM

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QUOTE(StupidGuyPlayComp @ Feb 21 2013, 10:07 AM)
smile.gif All are selling, they use left hand sell, right hand buy..............end up still all selling
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Guess most of the forumer here already stay away from market already.
foofoosasa
post Feb 21 2013, 09:41 PM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Feb 21 2013, 04:03 PM)
Investors here always react well ( more active )  to falling markets..........

Time to hibernate ..............
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biggrin.gif

Have you ready with your ammo?

but today my portfolio really red cry.gif
foofoosasa
post Feb 22 2013, 10:54 AM

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Once market stop, forum inactive again biggrin.gif
foofoosasa
post Feb 22 2013, 11:19 AM

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QUOTE(SKY 1809 @ Feb 22 2013, 11:08 AM)
Minimum wages start to impact on company performances.......bottom line profits getting super thin.

How to become active , by drinking more beer and start dreaming  perhaps

The Virtual power of dreaming ......
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Labour intensive business should be pretty bad impacted.

if you're boss, you raise some of the worker to RM800, some other more skilled employee, you force to add more wages to them to to make them "comfortable".

But many business owner start to raise price, inflation sky rocket again. cry.gif

End up ikan bilis like me pay the bill mad.gif

This post has been edited by foofoosasa: Feb 22 2013, 11:20 AM

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