today's buys: 5738 & 5075

follow friends reco 

TA comments are extremely subjective. 

Most of the time, it also depends on what kind of player (trader/investor/speculator/punter) the person is... 

For what it's worth.... (please note I could always be wrong)



That was the first thing I saw when I opened my trading platform (KenMoney).

Not looking good was my initial impression.

Long candle down.
Much, much heavier traded volume.

Two of the most unwanted signals in a stock.

Looking closer, the stock had a nightmare trading recently.
After opening a small gap higher on the 8th Jan, the stock is clearly retreating.

And the sell of yesterday, clearly exacerbated things....

Zooming out to a 12 month time frame, we have this...



We need to zoom out cos from the first chart..
we do not know where the stock had been...
or where the stock could end up next....

So where's next?
Typically, my guess would have been maybe 90 sen or 86 sen.
But given yesterday actions....
where the stock gap-ed down, ended down on heavy volume, all guesses are off.

Why?

It's a sell off.
The very first day.
And the momentum of the sell off could take the stock much lower.

And I am ONE WHO FINDS IT VERY PROFITABLE NOT TO GUESS HOW LOW OR HOW HIGH A STOCK COULD GO,
would not one to be guessing.... 

And zooming the chart further out...



As can seen, Pantech had clearly been a success for long term traders/investors.
And most, would have known, that one of the main reason was the stellar turnaround in earnings.
FY2011 was a disaster for the stock.
But since then, the turnaround was impressive.
Markets love turnaround/growth stories...

So what happened yesterday?
What as the reason for the sell off?

So perhaps it's the poor market sentiments of late....
But we do need to find out what happened...

Yes, we might not know the exact reason..
but more often that not...
we should be able to find a reason to justify ourselves...

As most would have known..
the sell off was due to the much lower than expected earnings..
In fact, one probably would have called it a disaster.

http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...-earnings-slip/

Earnings was down 22.5%.

Price targets were lowered instantly.

Kenanga lowered its TP from 1.28 to 1.07.

One thing I know is when a growth stock, suffers a huge decline in its earnings, sharp stock price declines usually follows....

And this is what happened.
That would have been my guess.

Would I want to bottom fish?

NO.

This is something like Zhulian.
Although I would be less pessimistic for Pantech.
For Pantech has a clearly much better business model than Zhulian.

But a decline is a decline.
And for a growth stock showing decline in earnings...
I would rather wait.

I would rather pay the price for being cautious and if the bloody ayam wants to run, let it run... LOL!
I would rather wait for the next set of quarterly earnings....

Or if there is a positive set of new development..
Or if there is a positive set of development in the chart...

Last thing I would want to do, is to guess where and when is the time to bottom fish for this stock.

My long 3 sen worth..... 
yeah.. I could always be wrong ....

eh no wor sold quite some time liao when it started going down i remember....just earn 0.05 cents....enough to cover brokerage only hahahaha

no la just see it started bo power... people start selling all the way from a high of 0.155......i waited 1 day.....big mistake......2nd day still no power,.....so i throw off...i remember the price is 0.13 i sold if remember correctly......just pure goreng....if i am clever....should have sold off a day earlier when i see it losing power haha.....GREED GREED GREED.....in the end no earn lor
wah kingkong.....u stalking me ah 

Looking horse-h hor.



Satu enam la....

tak ape.....sure got goreng again one....wait for the right time again to go in

Hoot it! 

hahaha if anything....blame Boon lor LOL

Remember..Satu tahun hor...

i got hoot homeriz today oh 

Yes, during trading hours...
real time charts is very important.

Most brokerage houses should have this in their trading platform software.

If it keeps a 'slow' and steady half sen or 1 sen gain...
I tell you hor...
your profits will simply overflow...
cos there's no telling how high this stock can go.... 

so just be patient....
watch it slowly crawl above 30 sen....
hopefully not so fast. 

That's just my opinions which I am sharing with Ah Lamb.
Please no misunderstanding..
They are not advices.

Furthermore my opinions could be salah...

Ok 9326

Company manufacturers aluminum extrusions, anodizing and powder coating of aluminum.

Steady growing revenue business, but profit has been spotty, but got some improvement in profit from 2011-2013. profit have high reliance of raw aluminum ingot price as it is a feedstock for the company. To understand this we have to look at aluminum prices as the graph below. The steady rise in profit from 2011 is primary due to reduction of aluminum price since the peak at 2011.



However spot price for aluminum has been steadily rising at early February from 72 cent/lb  to 76 cent/lb, but still a 40% below the peak of $1.25/lb.

If the aluminum price continues on its price reducing trajectory then it will benefit 9326. However all aluminum prices are transacted in USD in which it depends if the company can pass on the differences due to the recent devaluation of the currency. Sales are primary in Malaysia ( 75%) & Singapore ( 20%) while 100% of raw materials are priced in USD. Most of the sales are towards property construction companies and depend heavily on the property demand.

For the financials, the company is healthy, with some cash and some loan, however the company is not a net cash company. The PE ratio is more or less fair at 8x, unless the company can show further growth, then the PE ratio will be around there. The current weakness in the share price is due to no dividends, hence a risk for holding the company long term having no income while waiting for the price to appreciate.

Gross and net margins of 6% and 5% is not particularly attractive signifying the company does not have good pricing power for it's products probably due to high competition. Free cash flow is also ok at 1:1 ratio to EPS, which is fair. EV/Ebitda of the company is also around 8x which is also fair.

I would rate the company prospects as slightly undervalue, but the share price will be slow moving and highly reliant on the international aluminum prices. If there is a continuous fall in aluminum prices and continuous demand for property, I believe the earning margins of this company can improve significantly, also if the company decide to pay a decent dividend which it is capable of from the healthy free cash flows. But the opposite is also true, so it is a risk to be seen.

Too much practice... 

Read the Q report, annual report, analyst report, 5 years financial, look at the graph, read the website etc etc...

yes, please share the next winner