Conclusion?

Getting big winner, impossible or doable?

Fully agree.

And no matter what anyone does, it won't matter much as long as the Union is still around.

That one is for AhLoo.

It is doable if you concentrate la...

Learn your skills well first.

Volume is everything.

You need to understand volume, what it does and what it doesn't do.

You are EXCITED at this stock, why?

You saw the movement from 1 to around 110.

Right?

Then it consolidate (now) ....

Right?

Now what does the volume suggest when the stock moved from 1 to 110.

Compare the volume from 17/12 to 21/1 with the volume involved when it moved from 1 to 110.

What do you see?

See again la....

See what I am asking to see per last post.

You like talking like Auntie... and complaining what you no buy meh?

Compare the volume from 17/12 to 21/1 with the volume involved when it moved from 1 to 110.

What do you see?


Hint?

Compare the volume on those trading days (range) ?

what you see?

Isn't the average volume from the Dec range clearly MORE than the range when it moves from 1 to 110???

Yes?

What does this suggest to you?

Oops

This post has been edited by Boon3: Feb 18 2014, 09:46 PM

Yes !!!!

AVERAGE volume is sibeh low.

Don't think complicated...

So this 'round' you see the 1 to 110 movement...
but the volume involved is LOW....

this means...
the demand for the stock...
isn't strong.

More demand = more traded volume... yes?

When the demand isn't strong...
and yet the stock moves...

it can have separate meanings..

1. Sellers not there anymore... so easier to move...
or
2. the current movement is clearly weak.

At this point, I suspect currently is number 2.

Which is why ...
comes the candles....

you need to take this into consideration now..
the up candle volume is slightly lower then the down candle volume...
more volume on a selling day?
However, this is not really conclusive since both volumes are still low...
but... if you add back the initial average volume comparison into consideration...
then perhaps you might want to be asking....
what if the 'rebound' you are betting for is not as strong (as compared to other stock picks?)

And now ... comes your switch play....

if this isn't as strong....

isn't it crazy to jump switch from the other stock into this?

Furthermore.. for what is worth.. the other stock is trending really nicely now.

LOL!



Tell me... what you think of that candle then?

Dsonic?

it's a potong la...... u better no touch.

Try not too see to much.

You want the chart to tell you the story...
and not you telling the chart what will happen next.

right now, it's in a simple range trade between 52 and 55+- ...

That's about it...
some buying interest can be seen via the improved volume....

That's all...

In a range trade...
Best thing to do is wait for the stock to show you which direction it wants to go....
why?
when a stock breaks out of a range...
it doesn't mean the stock will only break up...
it could also break down.....

My 4 pm opinion was a potong.

Now it is still a potong.

LOL!

Yeah.. and you are interested in this stock just because it has pulled back SHARPLY from its recent high of 344 (which was also achieved yesterday too!)

Price now 291. Recent high of 344.
So you add this and minus that, you think you smell money.



Leave the UMA aside.
Being clarified or not is not as important.
( You should know WHY the UMA was issued - DSonic has really, really risen bloody a lot. )
Listen to what the chart is saying.



What does it say?

Sharp downturn on a HUGE HUGE volume day....
Although some buying was seen lifting the stock from the low of 276 during the last 45 mins of trading.

HUGE HUGE volume can always be interpret in different ways.
So is charts.
Charts can always be interpreted differently all the time.

For Dsonic, what shall be the view?
You want the SELLERS perspective? LOL!
or the BUYERS perspective?

Me?

Down day with huge volume? I would always rather be wrong and put the emphasis on the seller side.

Yeah, so I view this very much a selling day done on HUGE HUGE volume.

(Dsonic hardly appeared in the Most Active page until yesterday.... )

If I zoom out of the chart, this is what I see...



Can you see how a huge winner this stock is?
( Impossible to pick such winner? )
Can you see how fast the stock rose?

See how huge the volume was yesterday?

Someone taught me before...
or was it from a book...

NEVER GO INTO A TRADE IF YOU DO NOT KNOW WHERE THE EXIT DOOR IS.

Yes, of course the primary trend is still extremly bullish...
nothing was broken from yesterday trading...

but when I look at Dsonic, do I know where the exit is?
Do I know where the next support is?

Well.... what's your guess?

Populist guess probably will probably be 240....
which is quite steep from where we are....

I for one, wouldn't like to be in such a trade.

Second thing I learned was ...

NEVER RUSH TO BUY A STOCK GOING INTO A SHARP DROP

Given all the points....

I tell you la...
I will be the scaredy cat here...

if a new chicken is to be found here and if this chicken wants to run...
at this moment of time...
I say... let it run.

The bet is simply too risky.....
And I would probably say it looks as if it is lopsided to the downside........





Oh why potong???

LOL!

Ask CP88 ......

Err... that's just my opinion la...

In stocks, nothing is ever certain.
Nothing is ever casted in stone.
The unexpected will always happen.

Anyway, remember this...
use charts and do not let chart use you.

LOL!

You gave too much credit la...

Some of us initially migrated over and started this thread cos one or two seniors were rather BOSSY in the old thread.
This cannot that cannot.
Talk wind a bit on a day when no one was talking also cannot.

Anyway, that's in the past now.
I no longer read the old thread.

Right now I feel relaxed and am just sharing opinions here.

As you probably can teach me also...
charts do not make one successful in the market....
many other things are needed.

LOL!

Need DISCLAIMER meh?



This is stock forum la...
we chit chat here..
we no supermarket stock promoter ma....
so what are we disclaiming?


Ahh....

for the record...

ULI .... 104
GUH.... 116

why?

I am very interested to see how your two horses (or maybe ex horse ) run....

This one, I have to admit, learn from you one.

So hair all wet or not?

lololol .....

Very good points.

Purchasing stocks into history always helps boost a stock.
Most of the time.

Though, I have seen before, when during bearish times, stock buybacks did nothing to help boost the stock price before.
Can't think of an example now......

So for GUH, that's one positive.

But I think you should know me a little bit.
I always believe in some fundamentals.
Not a value player, but I believe very much that earnings is an important fact.
Seriously, why does anyone invest in a company?
Simple answer is the company is making big money and is going to make more big money in the future.

And for this I EASILY see in Homer but not in GUH.

GUH earnings YTD dropped like hell.

Whereas Homer improved a lot.

And since Homer sales are mostly based in USD, it's rather easy to safely guess the impact.
The USD is still around 330 to the ringgit.
And this is where we easily guesstimate safely...

The next quarter earnings for Homer should be made in April and it would be for the financial period ending end Feb 2014.
With USD still at 330... we can safely assume the impact will be positive AGAIN for Homer as per last 2 quarters.

Use this chart from yahoo USD to MYR chart.
Compare the period from Dec 2013 to Feb 2014 and compare it Dec 2012 to Feb 2013.
You can see the USD is roughly about 10% higher.

So whatever Homer is going to earn in USD, once it's converted to MYR, the money should be 10% higher...
That's a guesstimate.

Last year in 2013, Homer made 2.2 million.
Again, assuming that Homer earnings doubles up like we saw in Jan earnings report, then we can assume again that Homer profits will again double to around 4 million plus...

And once the earnings growth is so exponential...
trust me .... the market normally will react positively to the stock.

However, SADLY .... the stock is underrated...
unloved ...
and uncovered....

Example?
Last month's good earnings, where Homer's earnings doubled, there was NO coverage in the news (not that I am aware of)...
And certainly no research reports too...
And if you search back, the top 30 shareholder list...
there's hardly any funds invested in the stock...

UNLOVED ..... lol

Now comes the share disposal by the boss and his wife.
It's an off market deal...
Which means the deal is a handshake deal between the boss and the buyer...
Priced at 68 sen.

Buyer bought 2 million shares...
And I will gladly assume that the buyer sees the value in the company.

( Do check out the cash flow... it's unreal.... the company cash grew more than its profits !!!
where to find such companies?
Why is happening?
Depreciation..... accounting ..... )

If there is no value, I don't see why that buyer bought.

Which is good for the stock and everyone.
So the boss sold... but if he did not sell... he and his wife is holding too many shares.
This is not how a stock should be listed....
With them selling, hopefully... the stock gets more exposure.
And seriously... I do not mind if they sold another 5 million shares or even more....

Yes, off market transactions (or direct deals) ...
it's usually positive...

My long 3 sen....