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 Singapore REITS, S-REITS

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cherroy
post Aug 7 2017, 05:15 PM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Aug 7 2017, 05:06 PM)
Hansel mentioned something about Ireit using the retain 10% earnings to pay down the debts. If ireit does this, the gearing should drop over time right?
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Yes, but a slow process.

Eg.
ABC reit asset size or NAV is 100 million
Gearing ratio 40%, means 40 million is borrowed

Let say its yield is 6%, means 6 million DPU, retain 10% = 600K pa.

The most ABC reit can pare down is 600K pa vs existing 40 mil borrowing.
cherroy
post Aug 8 2017, 05:30 PM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Aug 8 2017, 01:47 PM)
cap mall trust.. why moving North?

hand itchy.. should dispose?

afterall already collected the div?
sold some earlier still got balance ... and collect back at 1.90? whats the chances?

then $$ recycle to?
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At this market situation, highly unlikely it will go back to 1.90. 1.99 is possible, weeks ago , it was around 1.95~1.96 level, before releasing the latest Q.
Its latest stable Q DPU provides some support level around 2.00.

1.90 may need some major market sell down.
cherroy
post Aug 10 2017, 11:39 AM

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FLT has some mini sell down, due to poor China trade data?
cherroy
post Aug 17 2017, 10:07 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Aug 17 2017, 08:19 AM)
It may mean a good thing. It will mean they have the cash to back up the bonus shares. It is a way of rewarding the shareholders.
How much cash are they holding presently?
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I have a different view.
Bonus shares doesn't create any value.

Instead of keep the residual profit made as retained earning, now the retained earning being converted to paid up capital or bonus shares.
The value of company doesn't change with bonus issue, just shareholders get extra share in hand.
While the extra shares will dilute existing DPU.
So it is back to square one.

I would prefer the retained earning being converted dividend instead of bonus shares, aka nothing beat hard cash in hand, and cash in hand can have compounded effect.
More dividend, higher yield.
Investors see higher yield then more support share price or share price is at a more elevated level.
cherroy
post Aug 17 2017, 11:23 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Aug 17 2017, 10:57 AM)
Bit of contradiction here.
If it is shifting of profits to increase capital, how can it be FREE like share splits?
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There is a difference between share split vs bonus issue.

1. Share split -
Just divide the share from 1 to 2, and par value from $1 to RM0.50
100 million shares par value $1 = 200 million shares par value $0.50
Can do anytimes at company wish, doesn't need to look at account book retained earning.

The number of shares just increased.

Bonus -
A new share being issued with the utlisation of retained earning, (nothing to do or not necessary must be in the form cash)
Retained earning being capitalised into paid up capital.
So must have retained earning, or share premium account (if)

Existing 100 mil shares par value $1, if issue 20% bonus, then total 120 mil par value $1 issued.
Then deduct retained earning $20 mil.

Both in the end of days, no extra value being created.
1. Absolute the same

2. In term of shareholders pov, nothing change. But in term of accounting, yes.

Dividend only can be distributed if there is retained earning.
If the retained earning being capitalised into paid up capital, then those amount cannot be distributed as dividend already, aka it becomes tight to the paid up capital.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Aug 17 2017, 11:26 AM
cherroy
post Aug 17 2017, 11:38 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Aug 17 2017, 11:16 AM)
Bro must have done a lot of reading,... yep, everywhere always compares share splits with bonus issues. Every article that talks abt bonus issues will surely cmp with share splits....

Talking abt share splits, the company that does this does not have or does not want to use retained earnings to perform this corporate action, probable does not have,... hence, UMS here is showing to the world that they have the cash in-hand, which is,... the strongest forte of this business.

Well,... the way I see it, share splitting is a cheaper way to increase liquidity,... if the company has funds in its ciffers but still chooses to do a share split, then I will be very cautious of the company,... what is going to happen to those funds later on ?

If a company does a Bonus Issue, then the mgmt is aligning itself to the shareholders, in that they will own more shares too side by side with the shareholders, making them want the company to prosper too.

Bros,... at the end of the day,... if the company is good and is growing,... the Bonus Issue will benefit us too,...
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You don't need "cash in hand" to issue bonus shares, as long as you have sufficient retained earning or share premium account to offset the capitalisation of the bonus issue, then company can issue already.

It is a non-cash involved activities, or specifically just an accounting adjustment which involved the paid up capital.

The bonus issue is creating no extra value for shareholder nor increase the company value directly.
But it does increases the liquidity in the stock market, this is the main benefit of having bonus issue.

The main purpose of having bonus issue is
1. Increase paid up capital - this particular useful for relative smaller company, while for large company, paid up capital of 5 bil or 6 bil, it makes little different already.
2. Increase liquidity.

cherroy
post Aug 17 2017, 11:45 AM

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QUOTE(prophetjul @ Aug 17 2017, 11:39 AM)
Some sharp eye Jack caught this on UMS!
This appears in essence as a share SPLIT, not a BONUS issue!  Management trying to pull a fast one?
cherroy ?
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I don't follow what is happening on the particular company.
But I don't know how a company can issue bonus issue without capitalisation from either retained earning or share premium account.

Wish to know how to do it as well to improve my knowledge on this field.
cherroy
post Aug 17 2017, 12:35 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Aug 17 2017, 12:25 PM)
Yes, aware of the above,... Frankly, if they are holding back the cash and not using it to 'carry' the value of each Bonus Share later-on, it will be a bigger concern to me. Value of a share, as in NAV per share can easily be made to go missing if a mgmt wanted it to,...

If this is going to be a stock split, then I would want to be paid more dividends for 2Q, since the earnings have gone over the roof.
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With stock split or without (as well as bonus shares), it doesn't differ at all.

If a company is earning good, stock split/bonus share or not, it doesn't make a different on dividend shareholders will receive, shareholders still get good dividend if company earns good.

eg
100 mil earning or dividend distributed to 100 mil shares, every share get $1

100 mil dividend distributed to 200 mil shares (be it split or bonus, it doesn't matter) every share get $0.50.

So that's why as mentioned earlier, bonus or split doesn't create any value.
It doesn't create nor reduce dividend shareholders potentially receiving.

It is just the numbering issue and accounting matter.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Aug 17 2017, 12:36 PM
cherroy
post Aug 19 2017, 11:02 AM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Aug 18 2017, 05:07 PM)
Yeah,... I noticed this too,.... whatever that has higher yield at current prices will surely have some flaws, some risks somewhere, eg gearing too high (iREIT Global and KIT, w Basslink), heavy reliance on one property (SPH REIT), the INdustrial REIT (uncertain sector), well, these are some I have studied,...

The most recent opportunity to go in is UMS,...

Manulife US REIT - don't know-lar,... everybody said it is good,... but recently, I noticed their result has one flaw,... so, I'm thinking not to average my price up anymore,..

If really,... no chance at all in SG mkt anymore,... then I will TT my funds to AUSTRALIA,....

After this posting,... I think I don't want to struggle in SGX anymore till the conditions are conducive again,... need to move-on already,.... Singapura already Maju,....
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SGreit market is having a mini bull run, so there are not many "cheap" reit around.
But market up and down is cyclical, it won't up forever, considered that reit has its own limitation on its up size.
So there will be a time, valuation emerge again.

For Australia situation, the concern is its property market is seemed rather too hot (some even said bubbling) which is fueled by super low RBA interest rate.
That's why I a bit wary on SGreit that having significant exposure to Australia property, particularly FLT whereby its properties are all in Australia.
Having said that, until now, Australia property market is still seems quite good.

cherroy
post Sep 8 2017, 09:48 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 7 2017, 11:13 PM)
You are forgetting something here.
- Ascott reit make rights issue. Price rebounded back to ori price.
- FCT is expected to lose HP (25% income, price drop, rebound back and went higher sad.gif )

Market have been irrational these few months. Could continue for another few more months.
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Ascott right issue is expected to be yield accretion as it uses its proceed to buy yield accretion properties, so short term drop due to right issue may be temporarily, as once it is able to deliver the result that diminish the dilution effect, price will go back up.

Yes, market may be irrational for short term, but over a longer term, it is always following the reit DPU to justify its market price.
Similar to CMT recently, price suddenly shoot up more than 10% from 1.95 level to 2.16, now it is correcting.
It won't shooting to the roof one without increment in DPU or due to interest rate environment plummeting.

Assessing Reit is much simpler than ordinary stock, it is always following its DPU to move over the longer term.

This post has been edited by cherroy: Sep 8 2017, 09:49 AM
cherroy
post Sep 8 2017, 10:40 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 8 2017, 09:54 AM)
But for cache case, it could rebound right? Reduce it's gearng which means able to purchase more property in the future.
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Reit market is simple, you can have 0 gearing, but if it can't deliver decent DPU, then market may also not like it.

Not every property is yield accretion nowadays due to high price of properties across the world.

Make it simple, it is all about delivering DPU to shareholders.


cherroy
post Sep 17 2017, 10:09 PM

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QUOTE(Hansel @ Sep 16 2017, 03:21 AM)
Bro,... in spite of ALL the reat things said by the press abt this acquisition, there is an issue still being worked upon at Dublin One. Dublin One has prbs finding tenants, and the power supply at the asset needs to be upgraded which basically means, no inflow, but outflow only because of the upgrading work....

Dublin One has the lowest occupancy rate in the entire portfolio of KDC REIT, and now, I saw in yr link up there that this coming Dublin Two also has more than 10% of space not taken-up,...

Wondering if this is really a good buy,...
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If the acquisition is yield accretion, even the property has a lower occupancy rate, it may be still considered a good buy.

1) The acquisition is yield accretive means potential improve DPU.
Reit performance is all about DPU.

2) Based on the info provided, the acquisition added average WALE to the entire portfolio, means the newer property is with long term lease. So existing low occupancy rate is compensated by longer WALE.
cherroy
post Sep 18 2017, 10:17 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 18 2017, 10:05 AM)
I still have about 30% cash reserve capital for SG REIT investment..

Need to wait for better opportunity to bite, prices are not exactly cheap now  laugh.gif

But on other hand keeping cash for too long, means opportunity loss from DPU..  sad.gif

Decisions, decisions..  sweat.gif
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With recent dovish stand of Fed, I do not think reit price will go down very much.

Either close one eye, buy at elevated level wink.gif , or park somewhere else like bond fund as Ramjade said.

We may need to wait much longer and need more patient for bargain.
cherroy
post Sep 18 2017, 10:28 AM

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QUOTE(Ramjade @ Sep 18 2017, 10:19 AM)
Feds meeting over already?
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Going to meet this week, but market has little expectation on rate hike.

They keep on talking on the rate hike, rate normalising, balance sheet reduction (for months and years), but the pace of walk on the talk is like on snail pace.
Instead we have report saying inflation is below target which diminish the rate hike chance.

Inflation won't be high when many commodities price are way off their peak level coupled with high USD exchange rate.

Treasuries yield has been staying low at around 2.0x to 2.3% speaks all the story.
cherroy
post Sep 18 2017, 10:30 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 18 2017, 10:20 AM)
Emm I view REIT and bonds have the same correlation (interest sensitive).. if anything will cause REITs to come down in prices, so will bond.. unless we are talking about really short term bond.. which yields very low. if we are caught in a downturn, we have no bullets (cannot liquidate bonds at loss), to take good opportunity.

Maybe might invest in divvy stocks, less sensitive to interest rate..  sweat.gif
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Divy stocks are not cheap across as well generally. sad.gif

The situation now is really giving plenty of dilemma for many investors.

Risk reward ratio doesn't seems quite right.

cherroy
post Sep 21 2017, 11:18 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2017, 08:42 AM)
It might not be the rate hike that matters now.

Might be more on Fed decide to reduce bond holdings, starting at 10 bil a month gradually up to 50 bil a month. Target holdings drop from 4.5 trillion to 3 trillion.

Depends if the market can adsorb all these bonds, if not bond price will fall (due to oversupply), yields will be up...  sweat.gif

But i see the target easing is slow as snail pace, likely not affect the market.. and Japan + Europe still have not decide to unwind yet.
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10b a month?

One year only 120b, need take a decade to unwind 1.5 trillion. laugh.gif

Slower than snail pace, no wonder bond market has no reaction.


cherroy
post Sep 21 2017, 11:31 AM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2017, 11:22 AM)
10b as a start, will increase to 50b max a month on gradual scale.

I expect 4-5 years lah.. rolleyes.gif
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That is 1.5 trillion, still left 3 trillion.

Before its balance sheet winding up totally, we may see another economy slowdown or crisis happening, then need to do QE again... laugh.gif

cherroy
post Sep 21 2017, 01:14 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2017, 11:33 AM)
Fed says, the 3 trillion will remain indefinitely on balance sheets..  wor..  yawn.gif
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As many suspected (even before QE ended), the trillions of balance sheet has no way to be unwind totally.

QUOTE(gark @ Sep 21 2017, 12:15 PM)
If QE unwind, two things will happen, interest up and EUR goes higher

If Interest up, depend if the REIT have fixed interest, if floating, means cost up = less DPU. And since higher interest can be achieved via FD or bonds, REIT yield need to compensate as well = higher yield = lower prices.

And usually if interest up, property price will fall accordingly (due to less people can afford to purchase), this also depends if this affects NAV. Which affects the gearing ratio.

Eur Up, means more DPU per SGD you will receive. But how much it can counter the above.. depends on the severity.

Basically interest up will not be good to Bonds and Reits. It will benefit FD holders.  laugh.gif

The above is the norm, but nowadays nothing is the norm already..  dry.gif

more details below.

http://investmentmoats.com/money-managemen...s-affect-reits/

https://www.thebalance.com/why-do-bond-pric...es-rise-2388565
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Old school of financial
1) Stock up, bond down, as people chase for risky asset vice versa.
2) Interest rate up, bond down, reit down.

But modern day of financial, thanks to the 4.5 trillion
Everything up up up....
Even DJ managed to have one of the longest bull run in the history, without any meaningful correction.

I only can find one reason : market is flushed with money.

Old school of financial academy book cannot "pakai" when you have unprecedented QE in the history.

cherroy
post Oct 4 2017, 09:54 AM

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QUOTE(elea88 @ Oct 4 2017, 08:17 AM)
http://mystocksinvesting.com/singapore-rei...ble-3-oct-2017/

look at the REITS CHART..

The index is currently facing resistance of 820 and currently trading sideway. We have to watch for the potential reversal as currently 20D and 50D are trending horizontally. Breaking the critical support of 800 will kick start the correction of Singapore REITs index.

this is one of the reason,.. i am cautious in adding.
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Yup, me also have the same view, it needs some meaningful correction, which is long overdue.

Btw, CMT has drop back to 2.00 level. Seems like 2.1x level is always good to sell.
cherroy
post Oct 6 2017, 02:54 PM

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QUOTE(kart @ Oct 6 2017, 03:20 AM)
It is good to know that Moneymatch is a viable alternative for us to perform fund transfer in foreign currency. smile.gif

High net worth individuals, such as gark, Showtime747, and Hansel would definitely transact in huge amounts, and thus can request for special discount in the exchange rate.

It is definitely beyond the ability of average Joes like me, who can only accept the advertised exchange rates, as it is. Sigh.  sad.gif

It is still a long ways, and many years of investment are required, before average people like me can be in the same league, as gark, Showtime747, and Hansel.
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For long term investment, the extra 1% paid due to exchanging SGD at bank board rate may become trivia, if the investment becomes fruitful.

Last time, changed at 2.7x + 1% at board rate, seems like 'pain".
But now after receiving various round of dividends + capital appreciation of reit price + Sgd appreciation, the extra 1% paid became like trivia.





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