I am just telling what I bought. I am not loaded like you guys. So usd30k is a lot of money to me. I left usd10k for anymore drop.
I still feel I didn't buy enough.

40k war chest, bought 30k (75%) in March, left 10k (25%)

In April, the 75% is "too little". But in December, 75% is "heavy" 

Apa lah.....never buy say never buy. Buy already say buy already lah. What is there to be ashamed about ? I am just doing a compilation of a real life scenario so that readers might see the benefits of wait or don't wait....

Or was it in April you felt that the market will plunge further, so you "claim" you bought only "a little" (leave yourself some room in case you are wrong). Now the market is much clearer, so you "claim" you have bought "heavily" ? (to claim your victory lap).

Things are much clearer on hindsight isn't it ?

I have seen many uncles blow water about their success investing in stock market in coffee shop, just like you here 

He revealed the amount himself. Actually no one is interested in the amount as this tracking is only to see whether "waiting" is better or not.

If you look at his previous postings, most are rhetorics. Not many numbers. So just to throw in some balance, I created his portfolio given by himself in this thread because I always believe numbers are much clearer than talking

But he always change goal post. Anyhow, I still think he did not buy during the crisis as shown in his posts in April/May. For some reason, he thinks his name and credibility in the cyberworld is worth to defend or something...hence change goal post again.

That is not important actually, because it is my curiosity (and maybe some other readers) in the numbers over the period that made me track the portfolio. Nevermind who actually own the portfolio. His name is just to provide something tangible we can relate to. In 3 or 5 years time, we can see a very good picture "ramjade's portfolio" performed well or not....   
I can never be a lawyer. Lawyer can beat people who change goal post, but I can't.

Any other good tips in SGX and ASX ? Or is it too high now ? Share please....

Companies & Markets
HOCK LOCK SIEW; First Reit's problematic rent structure with master lessee brought to fore

5 January 2021
Business Times Singapore

© 2021 Singapore Press Holdings Limited

THE dilutive rights issue proposed by the manager of First Reit last Monday to raise some S$158 million at a 50 per cent discount is a painful but necessary remedy to its persistent problems of tenant concentration and excessive rental support given by its master lessee Lippo Karawaci (LK).

Just as a tide going out reveals those who have been swimming naked, so Covid-19 also surfaced problems with First Reit's rental structure with LK.

LK itself has been plagued with weak operating cash flows and an inability to divest assets since a few years ago when its parent Lippo Group's US$21 billion Meikarta property project near Jakarta got embroiled in alleged bribery.

LK's financial problems had driven it to sell the manager of First Reit to OUE and OUE Lippo Healthcare in 2018, thus causing it to lose its former position as sponsor of the trust. Over time, LK has completely offloaded its stake in First Reit as well.

This, too, is problematic as LK no longer has aligned interests to help the underlying performance of the Reit.

First Reit's rental structure is such that PT Siloam International Hospitals operates all of First Reit's hospitals in Indonesia and pays rents to LK in Indonesian rupiah. LK then tops it up before paying the rents to the Reit in Singapore dollars (SGD).

LK and its subsidiaries contribute about four-fifths of First Reit's total rental income. Yet, Siloam only pays around 20 per cent of the rental income received by First Reit, with the remaining of the rents topped up by LK.

Things took a turn for the worse with Covid-19 last year. The pandemic significantly impacted Siloam's revenues and led to a drastic decline in patient volumes across Indonesia. Revenues in some hospitals were down as much as 40 to 50 per cent from a year ago, and LK said it expected the impact to be significant and structural over the medium term.

While it might be surprising that hospitals could suffer in a pandemic, one analyst said safe distancing measures have constrained their capacity, and the treatment of Covid-19 patients "won't make a hospital profitable".

The pandemic also caused people to defer elective medical procedures, while hospitals also faced a surge in manpower and safety equipment costs. Indonesian media also reported delays in the government's reimbursement to hospitals for the cost of treating Covid-19 patients, which disrupted many operators' cash flows.

Making things worse was the rupiah's depreciation against the SGD in 2019. The rental support agreements have a currency peg component, which further pressurised LK to offer even more support to make up for the forex translation losses. These factors have made LK's rental subsidies for Siloam unsustainable.

LK said last June that a lease restructuring was critically needed.

With a number of LK's hospital leases making up about a quarter of the Reit's portfolio gross floor area coming due this December, LK has proposed to pay its rent in rupiah instead of SGD, and suggested for the rent to be calculated not based on 'base rent plus variable incentive', but just the higher of base or performance-based rent. Base rents of LK's hospitals will also be cut by about 37 per cent to S$50.9 million per annum.

The only upside for unitholders is that the rental escalation per annum will not be capped at 2 per cent of Singapore's CPI increase but a flat 4.5 per cent each year. This essentially reduces LK's current rents with a "promise" for future increases.

If unitholders okay the lease restructuring proposal ahead of the Jan 19 extraordinary general meeting, they can expect the Reit to experience a significant hit to its net property income and distribution per unit next year.

Other alternatives?

OCBC credit analysts Seow Zhi Qi and Ezien Hoo had noted in a Sept 2019 report that it is unlikely for the Reit to find a new master lessee that is also linked to a hospital operator, given the unique use of the healthcare properties.

Unlike a commercial tenant in arrears which can be easily evicted and replaced, the replacement of a hospital operator in this case is more challenging because the landlord cannot risk a loss or mix-up of patient records, among other complexities.

"Barring OUE stepping in to financially support LK and/or Siloam, we think the main way First Reit may get new master lessees is if Siloam gets sold to a new party," they said. They added that the Reit is constrained by whom it can lease the properties and may need to accept terms that are less favourable.

This may mean that unitholders' hands are tied in voting for or against the restructuring of the master lease agreements. The terms are painful to accept, but there are few other alternatives for the Reit.

Meanwhile, for the renounceable rights issue, unitholders can choose to sell their rights if they do not wish to take part, in which case their unitholding will be diluted. OUE and related parties have agreed to absorb the units not taken.

To be sure, the rights issue does not require unitholders' approval. It is carried out as a condition of the Reit's S$260 million refinancing facility. But the manager has said that the lease restructuring must be approved to enable the manager to proceed with the rights issue, as that will provide certainty of the valuations and cash flows of First Reit's assets.

More gloom may also lie ahead for holders of First Reit's 5.68 per cent perpetuals which face their first call in July 2021. The street believes that they will not be called, given First Reit's tight liquidity and lack of other large and and timely funding source. When contacted, the manager said it is still considering its options.

If the Reit does not call on the perps, the coupon rate will reset to about 4.39 per cent, the sum of the five-year SGD swap offer rate and initial spread of 392.5 basis points, Tan Chu Ren, fixed income analyst at Bondsupermart, said.

Perp holders are faced with a fork in the road - realising heavy losses if they sell or holding onto the bonds with a chance of default. But Mr Tan recommends perp holders to continue holding on to the security, as their current prices, at their expected yields to next call, still look attractive.

"The highest concern for bondholders would be whether First Reit will default on the bonds. The default risk lies on LK, as a LK default would result in an immediate loss of about 72 per cent of First Reit's rental income and a chain of problems."

But he believes that First Reit will eventually issue new debt to call the existing perp, although that might take years, after the Covid-19 storm has passed.

Singapore Press Holdings Limited

Lucky I didn't invest. Have no interest in buying Indonesia linked stocks due to IDR which keeps dropping over the years

Companies & Markets
HOCK LOCK SIEW; Why CDL's dissident directors were right to quit
Ben Paul

6 January 2021

© 2021 Singapore Press Holdings Limited
THE exodus of directors from the board of City Developments (CDL), over concerns about the company's investment in Chinese real estate developer Sincere Property Group (SPG), may have some investors on tenterhooks.

Yet, combined with remedial steps CDL is already taking, the turnover of its board could well be a crucial and necessary step in regaining the confidence of the market.

The fact is that CDL may need to make some hard decisions about its ill-timed investment in SPG. A refreshed board would arguably be better positioned to do this without being second guessed by the market.

Directors should not quit simply because they do not agree with their fellow board members. Varied perspectives and viewpoints are a strength, not a weakness.

Yet, after bitter internal divisions about SPG spilled into public view, CDL's departing directors may have felt they had no choice but to consider their positions.

In October last year, CDL shocked the market when it announced that Kwek Leng Peck had resigned from the board over, among other things, disagreements in relation to the group's investment in SPG.

Mr Kwek had been on the board since 1987. He is a cousin of CDL's executive chairman Kwek Leng Beng, and an uncle of the company's chief executive Sherman Kwek.

This focused the market's attention on SPG's troubles, and sparked a sell-off in CDL's shares.

It may also have pressured other non-executive directors of CDL who had expressed misgivings about the Chinese property group to make an exit lest they be accused of treating their board positions as sinecures.

Last week, CDL said that Koh Thiam Hock, a former senior banker, had resigned as an independent non-executive director. The company noted that Mr Koh thought it "most appropriate" to step down after sharing his "observations, concerns and suggestions" about SPG.

Earlier this week, CDL said that Tan Yee Peng, who has nearly two decades of accounting and auditing experience, had resigned as an independent non-executive director. The company said Ms Tan disagreed with the board and management about the handling of SPG after it was acquired.

As competent and experienced directors, Mr Koh and Ms Tan are likely to easily find alternative board appointments if they so choose. Meanwhile, CDL has been recruiting new directors of equal distinction.

Since November, CDL has appointed four new independent, non-executive directors. They are former KPMG partner Philip Lee, CGS-CIMB Securities CEO Carol Fong, hospitality industry veteran Daniel Marie Ghislain Desbaillets and former fund manager Chong Yoon Chou.

Remedial action

Unburdened by past internal rancour, CDL's new directors are likely to be more effective in engaging the group's management as they set about putting things right.

Efforts on this front are already underway. Notably, CDL's external financial adviser Deloitte & Touche has completed a review of the group's investment in SPG.

Among other things, Deloitte & Touche has determined which of SPG's 71 projects are profitable and generating cash flow, which can be divested to improve liquidity, and which need to be more actively managed.

CDL has also set up a special working group to improve the liquidity and profitability of SPG, led by CDL's former chief financial officer Goh Ann Nee. Ms Goh is currently designated chief transformation officer in the executive chairman's office.

Next challenges

CDL has already indicated that it will recognise losses from its 51 per cent stake in SPG in FY2020.

CDL's refreshed board should ensure that the group's management has a clear and credible plan to stem these losses and staunch SPG's need for further liquidity support, while preserving the China-based company's usefulness as a platform for future growth.

CDL should also address concerns investors may have that the group is not fully in control of SPG, and that its exposure to the liquidity-strapped China-based company may necessitate a capital call.

Steering CDL and SPG through their current challenges will require a cool evenhandedness as well as sober awareness of the current risks in China, tempered by worldly optimism of what the future could hold.

CDL's recently departed directors displayed true independence of thought and action, and served the company's shareholders well.

With the market now aware of the problems in China, and the group's management already taking measures to get SPG back on track, it is right that they have made way for a new crop of board members.

Singapore Press Holdings Limited

Companies & Markets
HOCK LOCK SIEW; Can telcos do more than sit on their assets?
Annabeth Leow
7 January 2021

© 2021 Singapore Press Holdings Limited

THE Covid-19 pandemic has turned watchers and investors sunny on "infracos" - dedicated infrastructure owner-operators. Here in the Singapore market, an infrastructure asset spin-off or sale makes most sense for Keppel Corp's telco unit M1.

Australia's Telstra made headlines last November with news of its planned split into three units: an infraco for fixed assets such as ducts, fibre and data centres; an infraco for mobile towers; and a customer-facing service company or "serveco". The move is expected to help Telstra monetise the increasing value of its infrastructure assets while supporting investments in new infrastructure.

Closer to home, in Indonesia, Singtel associate Telkomsel sold more than 6,000 towers for 10.3 trillion rupiah (S$977 million) in October last year.

On the local front, however, the telcos have mostly held on to their assets. The exception is NetLink Trust (NLT), which holds the fibre broadband infrastructure powering the Nationwide Broadband Network.

NLT is 24.8 per cent-owned by Singtel. Its separation from Singtel was mandated by the regulator to prevent conflicts of interest.

The premium placed by Singtel, StarHub and M1 on the strength of their networks is one possible reason that the incumbents have not yet opted to spin their assets off into a towerco or cellco. It makes little business sense for them to cede that advantage when newcomer TPG Telecom's 4G network is still ramping up.

McKinsey, in a report last year on the pros and cons of infracos, also suggested value creation from separating infrastructure and service could be limited when markets already have high levels of connectivity or high customer-facing market share.

Yet, the impending 5G roll-out may shake up the infraco status quo.

StarHub and M1 have chosen to work together to roll out their 5G coverage. The upcoming shared network will be built by a joint-venture company, but each partner will retail 5G mobile services on its own.

So, though a full nationwide tower divestment is unlikely, some form of infrastructure monetisation could still be on the cards in Singapore.

And M1 is the most likely candidate for some form of corporate action.

Changing dynamics

M1 and StarHub have shared antenna systems, in-building fibre, tunnel cables and other assets for years.

The 5G tie-up could be an opportunity to iron out kinks for greater collaboration - especially as the two telcos are on roughly equal footing now.

Since its privatisation in 2019, M1's post-paid mobile base has overtaken StarHub's: As at end-September, M1 had 1.59 million subscribers to StarHub's 1.45 million. M1 also picked up MyRepublic as a wholesale customer last October. Fibre company MyRepublic, which operates a mobile virtual network, had previously been leasing mobile network capacity solely from StarHub.

Combined, the two telcos could give market leader Singtel - which had 2.75 million post-paid lines as at end-September - a run for its money.

StarHub might also be able to afford to take M1 off Keppel's hands, as its gearing had improved a tad by the end of its last reported quarter.

Net debt stood at S$790.7 million as at Sept 30, 2020 - down from S$930.8 million as at Dec 31, 2019 - due to a higher cash balance.

Its ratio of net debt to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation was 1.45 times as at Sept 30, against 1.51 times before.

But M1's shareholders - Keppel Corp, and Singapore Press Holdings (SPH), which publishes The Business Times - might be loath to let the telco slip out of their hands entirely.

M1 has been a relatively steady earnings contributor in a difficult time. Keppel is suffering from disruption and losses in the oil and gas side of its business. SPH, from weakness across property and publishing.

SPH's share of post-tax profit from an effective 16 per cent stake in M1 came to S$11.1 million in FY2020 - nearly 10 times as much as its share from pre-school MindChamps, an associate company. SPH booked a post-tax loss of S$112.5 million for the same period.

A more palatable option, perhaps, is an asset sale into one of Keppel's trusts, to be leased back to both M1 and StarHub. Indeed, Keppel has already identified roughly S$17.5 billion of assets that it could monetise as part of a strategic business review. More than one-quarter of this stash - with a carrying value of S$4.8 billion as at mid-2020 - comprises "assets for Reits/trust or sale", which the group said include "infrastructure assets" and data centres.

The Keppel umbrella already includes two trusts: data centre-focused Keppel DC Reit and utilities-focused Keppel Infrastructure Trust.

Matthew Pollard, chief executive of the manager of Keppel Infrastructure Trust, had told BT in 2019 that he was open to potential deals involving hospitals, car parks, bridges, tunnels or other such infrastructure assets.

Besides divesting M1 assets to either of these entities, Keppel also has the option of creating another trust and listing it.

Defensive demand

There's certainly investor appetite for defensive infrastructure assets: NLT's units rose 2.1 per cent in 2020, while Keppel DC Reit rose 35.1 per cent. Both outperformed the benchmark iEdge S-Reit Index, which shed 4.85 per cent over the same period.

Beyond connectivity infrastructure, a standalone telecom assets trust could acquire a variety of assets from local and regional players. Singtel, for instance, might divest not just its Australian tower portfolio but also its non-core, data centre and digital businesses, DBS analyst Sachin Mittal argued in a report late last year.

And, citing "the high value investors are willing to accord to stable-yielding assets in the current environment", Credit Suisse analyst Johnson Loh told BT last November that operators could tap the market "to unlock value in their infrastructure assets such as tower or fibre networks, and optimise their asset base through network or infrastructure sharing".

A single-player tower infraco may not be the right fit for Singapore's market dynamics, but that is no excuse for telcos here to delay unlocking value from infrastructure assets.

Singapore Press Holdings Limited

hi all - what's a good stable S-REIT to invest? any recommendation? im considering Keppel DC REIT. thanks.

You need to know your risk profile and your preferred investment style. Some are traders, some are long-term holders. Some are somewhere in between.

Usually REITs from Temasek-linked or -backed sponsors like Capitaland and Mapletree family are good ones.

Ascendas REIT - Suburban office, logistics, industrial, data centers
CICT - Grade A/prime office, retail (50% in prime location e.g. Orchard, 50% in heartlands of SG)
Mapletree Industrial - Industrial properties
Mapletree Logistics -  Logistics properties

There are good sponsors like Frasers, IHH, and Keppel too.

Frasers Logistics and Industrial Trust (FLIT) - Logistics and Industrial in Europe and Australia 
Parkway LIFE - Healthcare and nursing home in Japan, SG and a minor stake in Malaysia
Keppel DC - Data center

You are right to watch KDC and Parkway LIFE. Both under pressure recently in the wake of the "rotation to value" and rising risk-free yield. Can collect at good entry points.

CICT leverage already pushed very close to 40%, and rated A- negative outlook by Moody, following the merger with CCT. Expect management to deleverage. Ascendas seems to be doing the opposite, deleveraging intensely with frequent rights offerings and private placements.

As for hospitality, Ascott Residence would be something to look at. Hospitality business under Capitaland family but not a pure REIT (a business trust). But the rally since early November already priced in quite a portion of the future earnings. If you hold for long term should be fine. But for short-term gains there might be little room left.

For me, best time to invest is always when everyone is fearful. Otherwise hold for long term.

Websites for REITs resources:

SGX Company Announcement - Official portal, genuine info, but might be late as some news already priced in by the time you see the announcement

Reitsweek.com - Need subscription for full article reading but the headline and the first paragraph shown are usually sufficient to catch up with developments. Also comes with a glossary of real estate jargons for newbies.

Mingtiandi - Real estate news portal

Credit rating announcement from agencies like Moody's (e.g. CICT, Ascendas both rated by Moody's) - For inspection of leverage status of REITs

Business Time/The Edge SG - SG newspaper

Forums like ShareJunction - Just for discussion, and have a feel of what the average retailers are thinking of a particular stock. Sometimes rumours can be heard from forums like this. Just make sure you don't follow their buy/sell advice. Some members over there can set ridiculous TPs and give buy/sell advice without any technical and fundamental analysis.

Brokerage reports:

DBS Insights
CGS-CIMB
Phillip Securities
OCBC for bonds of S-REITS, but useful for credit assessment of S-REITS or
Some older ones published by SGX

Take the target prices with a pinch of salt. But they provide detailed background of company and some market chatters or "rumours" that are circulating in market. 

Hope that helps.

Based on the preliminary review of its draft and unaudited financial statements for FY 2020, the Managers wish to inform stapled securityholders of ART (“Stapled Securityholders”) that:

(i) ART’s income available for distribution for FY 2020 is expected to reduce by 40% to 50% from the S$165.6 million recorded for the financial year ended 31 December 2019 (“FY 2019”);

and

(ii) ART’s distribution per stapled security for FY 2020 is expected to reduce by 60% to 70% from the 7.61 Singapore cents recorded for FY 2019;

and

(iii) In line with the requirements of Appendix 5 of the Code on Collective Investment Schemes issued by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, ART conducts valuation of all its properties on an annual basis. In view of the weaker operating performance and unprecedented disruption brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Managers expect ART to record a decline in the value of its portfolio of approximately 6% to 8%, resulting in unrealised fair value losses of S$325 million to S$345 million (net of tax and non-controlling interests). This will result in a negative Total Return for FY 2020 compared to the Total Return of S$216.3 million reported in FY 2019, and a corresponding effect on ART’s Net Asset Value as at 31 December 2020. The unrealised fair value losses, which are non-cash in nature, will not have any impact on ART’s income available for distribution.

I listened to the webcast too,... what are your opinions ?

You are right, bro,... mkt reactions suggest disappointing results,... if you look at FLCT's and FCT's sp movements today.... everything seems to point to disappointing results to investors too,... hmm,... FLCT and FCT presented their annual reports yesterday and associated reports this morning respectively.

I noticed one more thing,... if you just look at the financial reports and the presentation slides,... things look not bad,... however,.. if you view and listen to the webcast,.. a different story is told,... can you try it out ?

Yeah,.. watch first,...