Sep 24 2012, 03:47 PM
QUOTE(hmn @ Sep 22 2012, 05:09 PM)
Rainy session will affect crop production, winter season will also have bad effect on palm oil substitute product (corn, seed, soy), Oil price will usually increase due to heating necessity in winter season country.
QUOTE(jy1905 @ Sep 22 2012, 06:25 PM)
i have the same thought.. but one of the forumer pointed out the cpo reserve is at all time high
just saw the news in the edge http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-ne...ing-stocks.html
and i notice that the production for most of the planters are back to normal for this quarter.. in fact, some of them are having higher production than before the tree stress
so should have no more tree stress affecting production like the previous quarters.. the issue now should be with the demand
so, i tried to google some info on the recent cpo fall.. most of the reports said it is due to the EARLIER AND FASTER HARVESTING of corns in the US
so this left me wondering
what the hell does this got to do with the supply of vegetable oil? i can:t figure out why this news led to the fall of corn prices.. would appreciate it if anyone could explain 
in fact, there are more poor and very poor quality of grains compared to last year.. they are harvesting earlier coz most of the crops are damaged
there are many reasons..just saw the news in the edge http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-ne...ing-stocks.html
and i notice that the production for most of the planters are back to normal for this quarter.. in fact, some of them are having higher production than before the tree stress
so should have no more tree stress affecting production like the previous quarters.. the issue now should be with the demand
so, i tried to google some info on the recent cpo fall.. most of the reports said it is due to the EARLIER AND FASTER HARVESTING of corns in the US
so this left me wondering
what the hell does this got to do with the supply of vegetable oil? i can:t figure out why this news led to the fall of corn prices.. would appreciate it if anyone could explain in fact, there are more poor and very poor quality of grains compared to last year.. they are harvesting earlier coz most of the crops are damaged
~M'sia & Indo'sia stock pile at high..
~EU sets policy on biofuel consumption
~M'sia is losing out to Indo'sia's cheaper export tax of palm oil (or refined palm oil, cannot remember)
~Early crop harvest in the US
~Less demand from India & China...
with the 5 reasons above.. CPO price is depressed.. personally, i see this as an opportunity to buy cheap plantation counters...
now is just scanning time..
perhaps, Dec/Jan is the right time to buy (imho)... Added on
what i cannot understand is the spread between Soybean oil and CPO is getting wider...
Added on September 24, 2012, 3:55 pm
QUOTE(yhtan @ Sep 24 2012, 12:11 PM)
i believe those are franchise outlet which the head office didn't bother much, and i have some problem in communication with their staff, why don't they hire local
and i agree with moppy, it is a good time to accumulate some plantation stock. QE already factor in several weeks before Uncle Ben made the annoucement, i'm much more worry about Asia economy situation after Japan, Britain, Europe and US started to print money
hi-fi bro~~ and i agree with moppy, it is a good time to accumulate some plantation stock. QE already factor in several weeks before Uncle Ben made the annoucement, i'm much more worry about Asia economy situation after Japan, Britain, Europe and US started to print money
i'm think Q3 and Q4 result will be quite bad for planters.. sticking to my timing or Dec/Jan.. partly because of GE, US GE, Fiscal Cliff, all come in 1 pot...
Added on September 24, 2012, 4:00 pmbtw, Cherroy sifu~~~
i think article explains how Mario's Unlimited Bond buying can be "sterilized"
finally got an answer after reading for so long..
http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiswoodhill/...already-failed/
this article points out a few difference between US and EU bond buying program..
QUOTE
Some observers called OMT “money printing”, and expected it to trash the euro. However, the opposite occurred. The euro has risen against other currencies since the ECB’s OMT announcement.
How can this be? The answer is contained in the ECB’s press release.
The ECB said that it plans to “sterilize” its purchases of government bonds under OMT, by accepting time deposits from banks at interest rates set via an auction process. Thus far, the ECB has been able to attract the volume of one-week time deposits that it has sought, at interest rates as low as 0.01%.
Designed the way it is, OMT is not a monetary operation at all—it is a fiscal one. The “certificates of deposit” that the ECB sells to finance its purchase of distressed debt amount to “back door Eurobonds”.
How can this be? The answer is contained in the ECB’s press release.
The ECB said that it plans to “sterilize” its purchases of government bonds under OMT, by accepting time deposits from banks at interest rates set via an auction process. Thus far, the ECB has been able to attract the volume of one-week time deposits that it has sought, at interest rates as low as 0.01%.
Designed the way it is, OMT is not a monetary operation at all—it is a fiscal one. The “certificates of deposit” that the ECB sells to finance its purchase of distressed debt amount to “back door Eurobonds”.
This post has been edited by mopster: Sep 24 2012, 04:00 PM
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