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 MAS, under value?

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gark
post Jun 8 2013, 11:49 AM

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QUOTE(MilesAndMore @ Jun 7 2013, 11:22 PM)
Hard not to LOL at this. Second best in the world ? That's a joke! MAS used to be quite generous with their food servings in Economy Class a few years ago. Many airlines are miles ahead of MAS!

By the way, Skytrax really is just Skytrash. Besides, this Skytrash has been giving MAS many awards it doesn't deserve since the late 90s. I doubt it will give much lift to its share price. If, IF MAS share price goes up coming Monday, it is only because there are some people 'goreng' it.
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Hah... for long haul i rather choose Air Asia X.. can save RM 1k++ per person for the same trip compared to Mas, that's already include buying on board meals. Yes the seat is a bit smaller, no entertainment etc but it is bearable for 8 hour flight.

After landing, check in hotel, get refreshed and go for a good meal at Michelin star restaurant with the money saved, more than enough to pay for it.

Isn't that beats any crap food/service from MAS which I have to pay so much higher? brows.gif

That's why lost hope on MAS long ago already...

This post has been edited by gark: Jun 8 2013, 11:52 AM
gark
post Jun 8 2013, 03:52 PM

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QUOTE(iAlien @ Jun 8 2013, 03:38 PM)
since malaysian is not rich yet, i think most of the people will still choosing budget flight...

KLIA2 will help MAS?
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KLIA2 will kill MAS as it is the dedicated airport for low cost flight. tongue.gif
gark
post Nov 18 2013, 06:37 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 18 2013, 06:18 PM)
http://www.thestar.com.my/Business/Busines...f-RM375mil.aspx

375 million loss for the 3rd Q.

Year to date, total 830 million, if continue like previous Q, whole year loss may surpass 1 bil.  sweat.gif

Latest Q result
Operating revenue 3.78 bil
Operating expenses 3.85 bil

This is the main problem.
Revenue must always exceed expenses.
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At this burn rate how long can they survive...? sweat.gif Sooner or later they will run out of cash.

Unless issue another round of rights issue...and the current shareholders have to pony out even more money or get diluted. tongue.gif
gark
post Nov 18 2013, 09:25 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 18 2013, 09:05 PM)
The company just raised about 3 billion right issue no long ago.
Now has 5 billion cash, so still got "plenty of time" before run out of cash.  tongue.gif
So not "so soon".  icon_idea.gif  tongue.gif

Another way to raise cash is through perpetual bond, just like last year that MAS issued before, 1.5 billion.  yawn.gif
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At current burn rate...3 more years gone liau....

The nta every Q dropping by 2 sen...now only 26 sen...later become zero if they keep bleeding. shocking.gif
gark
post Nov 19 2013, 02:26 PM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Nov 19 2013, 02:18 PM)
In long-term survival, AA debts are HUGE and financial ratios might affect credit ratings..

In year 2011, ordered new 200 Airbus A320neo cost USD 18.5 Billions.
That year, AA ordered already reaches 375 Airbus and 89 A320s have been delivered.
AA ordered 100 A320s for usd 9.3 billion in December 2012.. Can survive and good prospect in aviation industry?

Source # 1
Source # 2
Source # 3
Source # 4
Source # 5
Take note the currency and interest rate are in US Dollar, not MYR ..
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IF I am a company which can PROFIT (after interest expenses) from every additional plane I own, does it makes sense to add as much plane as I can? Of coarse, every additional plane makes me EARN more.

On the other hand ...

IF I am a company which can LOSE MONEY (after interest expenses) from every additional plane I own, why should I add more? Every additional plane makes me LOSE more, in fact I should own LESS planes to reduce my losses.

See the difference? You got to think on the business side of things.. not all debt is bad, debt that enables you to increase your profit is always a good debt.

Not necessary all big debts are bad, if your PROFIT can easily service your debt interest (commonly known as interest cover ratio), that debt cease to be come a problem even if the total debt is huge.

On the other hand.. even with relatively small debt, and you cannot earn enough to service your interest, sooner or later you will default. wink.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 19 2013, 02:31 PM
gark
post Nov 19 2013, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Nov 19 2013, 02:36 PM)
I understood business terms, But in post # 448 , I'm talking the debts were huge and survival in long term is a question mark?

MAS = LOSE MONEY could be depreciation of old aircrafts .. Not necessary due to poor mgmt. or other factors..
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And you mean AA got no depreciation for it's aircraft? rolleyes.gif Depreciation and it's rate is fixed in accounting terms..old air craft and new aircraft is depreciated at same rate.

But the difference is that Air Asia can EARN more than enough to cover it's depreciation but MAS cannot do so....

If MAS only lose due to depreciation (which is just an accounting term), then why we keep seeing negative free cash flows? Where the money dissappear to? whistling.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 19 2013, 02:56 PM
gark
post Nov 20 2013, 12:28 PM

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QUOTE(river.sand @ Nov 20 2013, 08:42 AM)
Airplanes are capex. Can sales of airplanes be considered operating income? Calling Pink Spider...
My feeling is that the proper term should be 'other income'. Is MAS trying to deceive us?
MAS has been privatized before. It didn't work out.
And the government won't let it close shop, as MAS represents the country, and the cabin crew are supposed to be Malaysian ambassadors.
Plus, there are no alternatives as far as full service carrier is concerned. AA is a budget airline. It has also moved its HQ to Jakarta, hence it cannot represent Malaysia.
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Sales of asset is classified under other income.. not operating. You can only claim as operating IF you are airplane distributor.. rolleyes.gif

Mas is WELL KNOWN for its financial shenanigans and creative accounting... like the one below...

QUOTE
The Perpetual Sukuk enables the company to improve its balance sheet and gearing as it is recognised as equity capital under Malaysian accounting standards, but yet provides a relatively reasonable long-term funding rate of 6.9 per cent per annum, he said.


Where got company declare long term LOAN as EQUITY inside their balance sheet one? This makes MAS balance sheet more worms than rubbish bin...if the sukuk is put as liabilities, the NTA already negative and need PN17...

Mas wont close down de... just like Japan airlines, Southwest, American airline, British airways.. worse come to worse government take over..if bankrupt BUT existing shareholders will be heavily penalized... (AIA for example). wink.gif

lets just see if MAS can turn things around within the next 6-8 quarters.. otherwise... sweat.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Nov 20 2013, 12:36 PM
gark
post Nov 20 2013, 12:32 PM

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QUOTE(netmask8 @ Nov 19 2013, 10:11 PM)
The more you talk abt right issues and perpetual Sukuk, the much better for MAS..  thumbup.gif

Money raised from Right Issue / Perpetual Sukuk were taken from the private fund manager/public/Asset Mgmt/bond holders etc
WITHOUT involving rakyat money /GOVT $$$.. rclxm9.gif

Meaning that these private fund mgr/Public/Asset Mgmt company/
bond holders STILL HAVE CONFIDENCE and PUT Their $$$ to the right issue/perpetual SUKUK..
Otherwise, why these ppls/Org/Company put their $$$ and jump into these right issues/perpetual Sukuk ?
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Lol.. >80% of the money for the rights issue and sukuk is from the govt agency such as Khazanah and KWSP..which meansn using rakyat's money for bailing out MAS. Otherwise already crash and burn... whistling.gif
gark
post Nov 20 2013, 01:43 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 20 2013, 01:34 PM)
Perpetual bond, means never expired bond, so don't need to pay back, right?

Something never need to pay back, is a liabilities? Seem not quite right
equity? also not an equity.
So how?

I also no clue on this accounting issue, someone that work inside accounting industry can give some insight?
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Perpetual bond still need to payback one.. in the event of callback & termination... hmm.gif If now treat as equity.. when callback the equity disappears? rclxub.gif
gark
post Feb 18 2014, 06:21 PM

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Total loss for year 2013 is about RM 1.1 bil, cash burn rate is about RM 3.6 bil, cash in hand only RM 3.5 bil.

Shareholders prepare for another rights issue... whistling.gif
gark
post Feb 19 2014, 01:57 PM

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QUOTE(woonsc @ Feb 19 2014, 01:56 PM)
Shud be bailed out right if worst happens?
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I hope not... better file bankruptcy, clear all the legacy problem and start again....
gark
post Feb 19 2014, 02:01 PM

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QUOTE(woonsc @ Feb 19 2014, 02:00 PM)
Hahaha why?!
nod.gif  hope to turn back the profitability again.
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Clean up all the union & crony contracts problems which is hampering it's profitability.

I think until year 2020 also cannot turn back to profitability.... rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by gark: Feb 19 2014, 02:01 PM
gark
post Feb 19 2014, 02:07 PM

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QUOTE(woonsc @ Feb 19 2014, 02:06 PM)
Hahaa buy now at dirt cheap, put in time capsule.
[to be opened at 2020]
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By then maybe worth 3 sen.... wink.gif
gark
post Mar 8 2014, 10:44 AM

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QUOTE(Pink Spider @ Mar 8 2014, 10:17 AM)
Well to be frank I don't believe in God, if they're safe, they'll be safe; if they've crashed, they'll be in trouble. No praying will help. wink.gif
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Usually lost contact and never landed is not a good thing. If they make emergency landing they will have news as the pilot is obliged to inform the airline. Also if they have some technical problems on the aircraft, the pilot will also need to inform the nearest tower. And since the aircraft cannot fly indefinitely, this is not a good news. If suddenly lost contact it could means a sudden catastrophic emergency that they have no time to report.

MAS have a reputation for safe air travel, and now the reputation is gone, it can never re built. I hope the crash is not related to maintenance budget cuts since they are losing so much money. If there are shoddy maintenance and/or budget cuts found, the airline can be sued for hundreds of million of dollars and the board of directors can be all hauled up for criminal charges. I hope the malaysian government will not resort to coverup.

Anyway I do hope that majority of the passengers is able to survive and is well.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 8 2014, 10:49 AM
gark
post Mar 8 2014, 12:59 PM

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QUOTE
According to a Vietnamese newspaper, Tuoi Tre, the Vietnamese High Command of the Navy said that the aircraft had crashed off Vietnam’s Tho Chu Island, northwest off the country’s southernmost Cape Ca Mau.

Those on board included two infants and 12 crew members, Malaysian Airlines said in a statement, adding it was working with all authorities in the region and search and rescue teams had been mobilized.

As well as the American and Australian passengers, the aircraft was carrying 153 Chinese, 38 Malaysians, 12 Indonesians and 32 people from France.

An unconfirmed report on a flight tracking website said the aircraft had plunged 650ft and changed course shortly before all contact was lost.

Unconfirmed reports said it was believed the missing aircraft was involved in a crash in August 2012 when it damaged the tail of a China Eastern Airlines plane at Shanghai Pudong Airport.

The reports said that in that incident the tip of the wing of the Malaysian Airlines Boeing 777 broke off.
RIP.. sad.gif

The plane wing was already damaged before this...

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 8 2014, 01:05 PM
gark
post Mar 10 2014, 02:53 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 10 2014, 01:39 PM)
Plenty of airliners don't own the plane directly, but operate the plane through leasing.
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Although they are leased, MAS is still responsible for the plane's replacement cost.

All leased planes are 100% insured, but insurance claims may take a long time, and depend on the circumstances of the crash, it might or might not be covered.

Before any insurance payment, they will need to have final report from the authorities first which will take years.

In the next Q report, expect they will need to write off the entire aircraft amount due to 'loss' of asset and also potential claims/payment to the families under liabilities.

This post has been edited by gark: Mar 10 2014, 02:55 PM
gark
post Mar 10 2014, 03:25 PM

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QUOTE(wil-i-am @ Mar 10 2014, 03:20 PM)
Narrow n wide body aircraft depreciated 10-18 yrs n 20 yrs
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This plane is just 11 years old, so at least still got 45% the plane original value. How much need to write off? hmm.gif
gark
post Mar 10 2014, 04:03 PM

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QUOTE(cherroy @ Mar 10 2014, 03:13 PM)
The plane is 11 years old (if not mistaken, that I read from net), so I reckon due to depreciation, there won't be much left in the balance sheet.
PS I am not well verse how airliner account their leased airplane in the balance sheet.

So when insurance money come in, write back again? 

Also, I wonder, isn't it public liabilities insurance is the purpose for such event? (claim/payment for accident case)
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Usually for insurance claim, the claim amount is put under provision and write off from the books. When the claim money is given, it is reflected as 'other income'.

It also depends if they have bought public liability insurance and the circumstances for the missing plane. And if includes riot, act of war or terrorism clause.

Similarly the provision (estimated cost) have to written off first, then add back as other income once the money is paid by insurance.



 

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