TNB – Significant Improvement In 2Q Expected Outperform (Upgraded)

Results Preview

- Given that the gas supply situation has improved significantly to 1,100-1,150 mmscfd in 2Q (1Q: 1,050 mmscfd), we expect earnings to jump qoq. We estimate 2Q core net profit of RM500-600m (1QFY12: RM196m, 2QFY11: RM442m).

- We gather that TNB will write back the RM2.05bn compensation in 2Q. This opens the possibility for TNB to resume paying dividends. For 1HFY12, we estimate electricity unit sales growth of 4.6%. This is within management’s guidance and our forecast of 4-5% and 4% respectively.

- We are turning more positive on TNB given better visibility of its earnings outlook with the improved gas supply. Fair value raised from RM6.50 to RM7.60 based on unchanged target FY13 PER of 15x and EPS of 50.8 sen after rolling over the valuation base year to 2013.

This post has been edited by baqueen: Apr 12 2012, 09:24 AM


Attached File(s)
 TNB_20120410_2QFY12_Results_Preview.pdf ( 81.79k ) Number of downloads: 12
 AEON_10042012.pdf ( 114.32k ) Number of downloads: 17

curi ASIABIO

TAMBUN........

Versalt

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Added on April 12, 2012, 9:22 amtambum fall abit can go in mou ?

This post has been edited by alex_king: Apr 12 2012, 09:22 AM

wah everyone boycott forum for 2 days to show protest/dissatisfaction on the recent fiasco. forum is super quiet like the market

AT got some movement .. monitoring the stock

Now can enter?

i think late already.

Also think so. Sad

expected... let's goreng today.. the report will be releasing today...

Today SYF day?

short-term they shouting mother will shoot to RM6.5...
mid-term RM6.7....

i shouted 2weeks ago i assume.. hahahha

Tiger ... get panamy when it drops below 20

go go SYF ?

Plantation – Positive Fundamentals Prevailing Overweight

Sector Update

- Malaysia’s CPO production picked up slightly in Mar by 2.1% mom, while exports rose by a larger 10.8% mom. Yoy, production fell by 14.5% in Mar, while exports rose by 8.7%. As a result of the smaller mom rise in production vis-à-vis exports, closing CPO stock levels fell by 5% mom to 1.96m tonnes in Mar and annualised stock/usage ratio fell to 11.9% (from 12.4% in Feb).

- Supply/demand fundamentals of the vegetable oil industry is still looking positive with further downgrades of South American soybean crop estimates, planned reduction of soybean planting area in US and increasing dependence on CPO to replace other vegetable oil shortages.

- We maintain our CPO price assumptions of RM3,100, RM2,900 and RM3,000 for CY12-14 respectively and Overweight on the sector given the strong 1H CPO prices amidst a bullish fundamental outlook. In the 2H, we expect weaker prices on the back of seasonal factors for CPO and a potential improvement in soybean crop outlook for 2012/13. As such, while we believe there is still upside for the sector, we advise investors to buy on dips and to lock in profits once a decent investment return has been obtained, in view of the volatile commodity price outlook and in anticipation of a weaker price outlook in the 2H. Our top picks are Sime Darby and TH Plant (undervalued plays) and First Resources (FV = S$2.20), a beneficiary of the change in export tax structure in Indonesia.


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Utilities – Headwinds Receding For Tenaga Overweight (Upgraded)

Sector Update

- We are turning more positive on TNB given better visibility of its earnings outlook with the improved gas supply. While imported LNG pricing remains an issue, we believe implementation of a dual pricing system is more likely and therefore have an earnings neutral impact to TNB.

- As for YTL Power, the stock lacks catalysts while dividends are no longer attractive. However, sentiment may improve if the 1Bestarinet project helps to monetise its WiMAX network.

- Given our recent upgrade on TNB, we upgrade the sector to Overweight, from neutral.




Attached File(s)
 Plant20120412.pdf ( 131.56k ) Number of downloads: 17
 Utilities_20120412_2Q2012_Outlook.pdf ( 190.31k ) Number of downloads: 18

Plantation mana ada overweight... hapseng so meek... haish

MPAY is down

u think if the real tsunami hit malaysia, there will only <100 casualties? esp in popular area like batu ferringhi? go youtube and find tsunami video, then compare it with penang "tsunami". can u see the big difference? one is the REAL tsunami. another is just the "after-shock" caused by the REAL tsunami

get ur facts right

People argue with brain and facts. That guy argue with ... i mean htt.