My bad Poks. I have attached the pictures of the graphs above

hmm... This is a quick one. There seems to be a mixtur of news coming up less than half an hour from now at 8.30pm malaysia time.

I identified a few directions where the graph might go next.

If the news is good for US, then we may get the red & green direction.

If missed analyst prediction, the it may go up the blue direction, similar to what happened on the 26th of March(Blue circle).

If market is confused... then we might get the orange direction, within range. Something similar to yesterday(orange circle), but there was no news yesterday.. today we have quite a sum.

Where do you think it'll go? I'm downward bias, but keeping a small lot here.

watchout, it seems similar to that of blue or orange direction.

hmm... This is just a fun analysis. This is not a trade advice or tips. Your actions are your own risk.

Yesterday's close had a rather strong buyers for Eur/Usd. In fact, the formation from 27th to 29th march(red circle) mimics that of the formation from 20th to 22nd March(yellow circle). From here, i'd say that today may be an upside day.

But if I draw the long term(red line) and medium term(yellow line) trend lines, today we're practically at the tip of a triangle.

From the graph of Eur/Jpy, it looks as if it could complete a double top yesterday, in which it did, but it did not extend the drop to go past through the midline of low of 22nd March. It could go up to from a triple top/head&shoulder instead, knowing how the BOJ might intervene to weaken the Yen.

If the Eur/Jpy chooses the triple top, then we might see an upwards direction today for Eur/Usd resembling that of 23rd of March.

On the news side, we have:-

German Retails Sales(MoM) at 2pm Msia time.
French Consumer Spending(MoM) at 2.45pm
Eurozone CPI(YoY) at 5pm
US Personal Spending(MoM), Core Personal Consumption Expenditure(MoM) at 8.30pm
Chicago Purchasing Managers' index at 9.45pm, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index at 9.55pm

Quite a mix of news. Perhaps a clearer direction might show itself at around 8.30pm where we are also very tight within the tip of the triangle.


Where do you think the graph will go?

All the best everyone





This post has been edited by dillmac: Mar 30 2012, 09:09 AM

This is just a fun analysis. This is not a trade advice or tips. Your actions are your own risk.

So it was a very tight trading range for Eur/Usd today as I have mentioned in my previous post that we're at the tip of a triangle.

hmm... This coming Monday may be something big. It may also be a very choppy market.

On Monday (2 April 2012), we have news of :

French Manufacturing PMI at 3.50pm Malaysia time
German Manufacturing PMI at 3.53pm
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate at 4pm
Eurozone Manufacturing PMI at 3.58pm
Great Britain Manufacturing PMI at 4.28pm
Eurozone Unemployment Rate at 5pm
US ISM Manufacturing Prices at 10pm
US ISM Manufacturing Index at 10pm
US Construction Spending(MoM) at 10pm

Some scenarios,

For Eur/Usd, I suppose there are only 2 possible directions on Monday. Since we're already at the very tip of the triangle. The first scenario is for the graph to retrace downwards to touch any of the close fibonacci lines(Blue arrow) or even just the support area(Blue line), then it will go up to break the highest top of the week at 1.3385 to set up the bullish tone. If this happens, it mimics very closely to the movement on 26th March(Blue circle).

where else, should it unsuccessfully break that 1.3385 level, it might have a drop down below to form a double top(Red arrow), thus setting the bearish tone. We might see some great pips here.

However, I think it is also important to look at how the Eur/Jpy is performing for that bullish or bearish tone of Eur/Usd.

If you look at the Eur/Jpy graph, it has been in a trading range since 19th March. It could also be a decisive day for the Eur/Jpy. Should it break that 111.42(blue arrow), then that could lean towards the bull for the Eur/Usd.

Else, should it rebound to from that 111.42 level, it may very well form a triple top/head & shoulder(red arrow) and a possibility to drop below neckline. But, to consider that the Yen is subjected to the BOJ intervention, it can also still be trading within range(orange arrow).


Then, all the directions are also subjected to news. Since there is a number of news from various Eurozone nations, a mix data may be collected. A direction may be set here, but I suppose it will be very choppy prior to that. Later in the day, the US data may either strengthen the direction set during London open, or it may cause a retracement from the direction set during London open.

Whatever it is, you should be wary this Monday. Should a strong direction be set this monday, it may very well continue for some days for the week.




This post has been edited by dillmac: Mar 31 2012, 05:13 AM

Thanks for pointing that out boyvai! Yeah, it could very well test that resistant line(Blue line). Something I should consider in my fun analysis



This post has been edited by dillmac: Mar 31 2012, 05:19 AM

Does anyone here knows why Aud/Usd experience such a sharp drop after RBA's announcement of interest decision of 4.25%. The newly announced rate is the same as previous rate and also the same as analysts' prediction.

If high interest rate makes the currency attractive, why then did the Aud/Usd dropped?

ah! I see. Thank you Sleepwalker for the heads up


Tomorrow is a Good Friday. But tons of US data and Non Farm Payroll data is coming in at 8.30pm Malaysia time. I wonder if it will be a low volatility day since banks are on holiday?

This post has been edited by dillmac: Apr 5 2012, 07:28 PM

Well, my definition of volatile is that at least there is some major movement. We did get a major move during london session for Eur/Usd. But tomorrow is a Good Friday holiday. I remembered when US had a Presidents' Day, the market was barely moving.

But my question is on tomorrow, since a major countries are taking the day off, will there be any major movement during release of US data at 8.30pm tomorrow? Does anyone have had any experience on this? Holiday+Major News Release.

By algos, I suppose you meant the algorithms that are set by the banks and large funds?


Make sure that your broker has not changed any policy towards the fixed spread. Another reason, it could be because of less activities during the day due to Good Friday holiday.

My broker previously has a fixed 60 pip spread. But recently, they sent a notification saying that they can no longer offer fixed spread for the time being.

Sure there is a lot of things that must be learnt. I'm guessing you're reading too fast or skipping some stuffs. Read it slowly, it's alright, take your time. Because you will need to strengthen your base first. Once you're in the market, there's even more things to learn, especially learning about yourself and what kind of person you are in the market.

I finally learnt that it is not a get rich quick "game" if you may call it. It can be if you're able to predict every single direction. But I'm being really patient now. Quite a lot of capital that I have put in to learn how to be patient. And now I've learnt my lesson after so many slap in the face

Babypips has lay the lesson well. Just go with the school system. I have to admit though, I skipped some lessons on indicators, because I wanted to naked trade. But some weeks or days later, I will go back to the skipped section on certain indicators that have caught my attention after watching some videos, such as the fibonacci. Other than that, I used to use RSI and stochaiostic(how do I spell it? ), but it just didn't suit my trading style, so I left it out of my strategy. So you may need to experiment with a few indicators before finding that most comfortable ones.

All the best

That's the risk of this business. Same like any other business which trades globally.

One way you could minimize is to get a chart for myr/sgd. From there, if you know how, you can estimate where the price will head to. Thus, once you have profit on your account, you could withdraw if the rate is favourable. Otherwise, if the rate is not favourable, but you estimate that the market will head towards your desired rate in a few days or so, then you could hold your profit for a while until the rate reaches your target.

Another way is that, you just make extra profit on the market prior to withdrawing. Thereby your extra profit can make up for the exchange loss.

It's easier for me to have a USD account as I can set a general 3.3 rate. This way, I do not under estimate the exchange cost, so I have a general estimate. And usd/myr is quite stable between the 3 to 3.1 rate.

I believe it is easier to beat the cost by earning extra profit rather than wait for the favourable market exchange rate to withdraw.