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 AS1M/ASM/ASW2020/ASN/ASB and other PNB funds V3, lending your money to the government

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guy3288
post Jul 15 2012, 08:28 PM

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QUOTE(tay @ Jul 9 2012, 02:37 PM)
Hi,
I am new to bond fund, I have few doubts:

1. What is the return from Bond fund? by market price or dividend payment?

2. Bond fund is base on market price buy/sell?

3. Will the Bond fund lower than FD e.g. 4%pa?

4. When market is going to recession, is it the best time to buy Bond fund? e.g. KLCI from 1600 drop to 1400

5. Any lock in period when buy bond fund?
Thank you very much!
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Real bonds you need min RM250k. Return varies from 4.5% upto 7.5% eg in Public Bank bonds, even upto 8.25% in OSK investmenet bank bonds.

If you dont have so much, then you buy the UT as mentioned. Yes you buy/sell at market price, but on average the return as mentioned above, so it means by the time you sell the price already increased to that level.

Can it be lower than FD 4%?, i suppose it can drop in price also, becos you buy and sell at market price, depending on when you buy/sell that UT.

However as for the real bonds, you wont get less. LIke the PBB Bond, it is fixed -you get the 7.5% pa return, year after year. Better still is, even the bond price also increase (good demand now) so if you sell now, you can get back more than your original capital of 250k.

Best time to buy Bond is when bank interest rate is low. When bank interest rate is very high, bond is not in demand.

Lock in period, yes for real bond. OSK is 5+5 years. PBB bond is 50 years if you look at the maturity date on the paper!!

guy3288
post Jul 15 2012, 11:48 PM

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QUOTE(soul2soul @ Jul 15 2012, 10:21 PM)
How do we purchase direct bond from Public bank?

Walk into the bank and tell them or need go through certain agents?
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You have to wait for new issue. once it is launched open, it is very quickly taken up.

After that you have to buy from open market.

The old bonds mentioned above, if you want, you go to the bank and buy it from secondary market, that would be at a premium.
Eg when it was launched the first owner paid RM256k for a 250k bond, if you were to buy from secondary market now, may be you have to pay RM280-290k.

After buying it up, you will be receiving all the subsequent dividends/interests till maturity/call back.

Good bank bonds are hard to come by now. The one available mostly pay low returns, 4.5% or so.

Corporate bonds if you want regularly available.
but rather high risk.

Eg. like the recent Malakoff bond -paying 9.5% pa return.

But recently i read that soon malaysia will open its bond market to retailers.
guy3288
post Jul 18 2012, 12:01 AM

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QUOTE(cheahcw2003 @ Jul 17 2012, 07:13 PM)
thumbup.gif done a lot of home work b4 replying.
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OK i shouldnt tell people, best time to buy is when interest rate is LOW. I said already when bank interest rate low, good demand for bond, sure the price would be higher.

But, that was what i did. Bank interest rate so low why keep in bank? might as well go buy bonds which pay higher return.And i found the 7.25% pa bonds, even buy first hand also there is fees (actual is RM4400). I even buy some from secondary market paying upto RM12k premium, i remember calculated it, the 12k fees can be recouped after some 18months+, subsequently can enjoy the nett extra returns.

I dont buy bond to sell it at higher price, but now i am pleasantly surprised that the value is 280-290k! Would i sell for the profit? i dont think so, what to do with that money, where to earn return higher than 7.25%, i am not good at investments.

guy3288
post Jul 18 2012, 02:48 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 18 2012, 09:55 AM)


Added on July 18, 2012, 9:57 am

Like  previously  said, you need to calculate the yield to maturity. This can be calculated from the bond price, remaining period and coupon value. If you can list the above, we can calculate the yield to maturity to see if you got a bargain.  brows.gif
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If you can calculate for us to see, why not?
Here is the details:


1) Public Bank Berhad Non-Innovative Tier 1 Stapled Capital Securities ("NIT-1")
Offer period 25.5.09-28.5.09

I bought 1 lot during offer period at RM101.7600 = RM254400 .
Then another from open market in December 2009 at RM104.8200 = RM262820.55
So far dividend pay out at 7.5% , has been as expected. Half yearly RM9349.32-9400.68.

Statement dated 30.6.12 showed that the market price is now RM115.7700 = RM290,555.14

Is it worth selling now?


Ratings AA2
Maturity - Perpetual with first call at 10 year. On paper it is 5.6.2059




guy3288
post Jul 19 2012, 07:08 PM

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QUOTE(gark @ Jul 18 2012, 04:10 PM)
If no call...until 2059

1st lot Yield To Maturity = 7.37%
2nd lot Yield To Maturity = 7.12%

If you buy now at current rate, YTM = 6.4%

If your bond is called in 10 years by the bank (you have no choice in this)...

1st lot Yield To Call = 7.25%
2nd Lot Yield To Call = 6.78%

If buy at current rate, YTC = 4.72%

IMHO, the bank is very likely to call the bond and re-issue one with lower interest rate... looking at the interest rate environment wink.gif
Also the returns are somewhat higher than A-AAA diversified bond funds (5%-6.5%)... although some bond funds posted 9%-11% last year.
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Thanks for the calculation.

So it looks like the first buyer tend to make more and the later buyer would gain less, since the YTM or YTC seems to be falling with time, as the price moves up.

So can we say for someone who expects a minimum return of 4%, there is no point in buying up this bond when the calculation
produces a YTC of less than 4%, even though after buying it up it actually pays you 7.5% pa?

Then, by extrapolation, shall we say by the time the calculated YTM/YTC falls below that expected min of say 4%, that is the time to sell and get out of this bond?

Thanks for your input.


PS: If by maturity the price of this bond falls below cost, the bank interest rate would have been very high right? may be 12% or more?? just curious....



guy3288
post Jan 26 2013, 04:01 PM

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QUOTE(Petre @ Jan 12 2013, 09:20 PM)
because not all ppl are confident with PNB, not all people trust PNB and not all ppl trust the government.

also there are a lot of similar investment that can give similar or better return smile.gif
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I doubt this is so, everytime when the PNB amanah Saham Wawasan2020 etc is open to public, i see such a long queu, and when it comes to your turn, no more units left for you to buy.

If really there is such a case as nobody want to buy it(ASM,ASB)- it is the bumiputera category. If you ask me why bumi category always got balance not sold out, i dont agree that it is the bumi people dont have confidence in PNB or they have better options to buy that can make more money.

ASM, ASW2020 etc pays out 6% or more every year. Everybody (nonbumi) is all waitimng to grab, dont believe, just wait for next public opening.

How do you come to conclusion people no confidence in PNB?
guy3288
post Jan 29 2013, 10:22 PM

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QUOTE(Petre @ Jan 29 2013, 02:28 PM)
no i dont biggrin.gif
yup, agree with what you said bro, people can q days if they are presented with a hope that they can get units. have seen this and know of people who want PNB funds so bad they are wiling to put 100-200k in FD waiting for ASM biggrin.gif

so i cant and didnt try to suggest that people dont have confidence in PNB, because this is fact that there are many who have 110% confidence in PNB although when asked what is the basis of their confidence, they can only say: its government. yet they vote for the opposition  rolleyes.gif

of course, its misconception or miseducation, its a long and rather sensitive topic to some. those who know of similar funds will avoid PNB funds, but the general public will buy PNB units simply because they trust the government. the market is full of similar funds that can provide equal if not better returns compared to PNB funds, althoug i must say ASB and ASN are quite competitive. but we all know its exclusive
yes you are right. this is my own opinion and i urge anyone who are interested in my statements to make their own research smile.gif
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Looking at the queues for PNB funds, can i conclude many people do not know of other similar funds that you mentioned, equal if not better than those ASW2020 and ASm which gave 6+% pa return.

Maybe you can list down some of the funds you mentioned above.
Do you mean Unit trust? Are they really comparable to the fixed price Asw2020 etc?
guy3288
post Jul 3 2013, 11:47 PM

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look at it from positive side u wont lament.

you will feel blessed instead.

they dont invest, they spend , others got a chance to invest.
everybody wants to be boss who is going to be kuli?
guy3288
post Aug 23 2013, 10:05 PM

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just before G election , damn easy to buy ASM, ASW2020 AS1M.

I saw people queing there to sell, did you all buy that time? I kept topping up whatever i had then, but frankly got a little feeling of woories also when it was too easy and successful to top up almost every time i tried......
guy3288
post Aug 23 2013, 10:07 PM

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QUOTE(lucifah @ Aug 23 2013, 08:32 PM)
i'll let my clients know  laugh.gif
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Not just VIP clients la, they even do it for close friends, relatives......

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