QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 24 2011, 03:39 PM)
Every economy crisis, we faced different kind of problem and challenge.
Yes, household debt is alarming high, and BNM has been monitoring on it and keen on lowering down.
If now enjoy future money, mean need to pay back in the future, so probably having slower growth or even recession, but it doesn't mean forever.
Recession happened always is to correct previous over or unsustainable issue.
In the future, household income can rise to offset, or no more debt can be built further resulted slower and or economy recession, once this get over, the economy will be bouncing back, and property price will rise again.
Yes, near term seem correction of house price can come in, but it doesn't mean it must crash.
Added on November 24, 2011, 3:41 pmThe current problem is household debt.
Back before 97, it is high corporate debt across, high leveraged.
But now corporate mostly are cash rich.
At least at corporate front, situation is more healthy.
Corporate cash rich?? are you kidding??? do you hv data to support your claim?Yes, household debt is alarming high, and BNM has been monitoring on it and keen on lowering down.
If now enjoy future money, mean need to pay back in the future, so probably having slower growth or even recession, but it doesn't mean forever.
Recession happened always is to correct previous over or unsustainable issue.
In the future, household income can rise to offset, or no more debt can be built further resulted slower and or economy recession, once this get over, the economy will be bouncing back, and property price will rise again.
Yes, near term seem correction of house price can come in, but it doesn't mean it must crash.
Added on November 24, 2011, 3:41 pmThe current problem is household debt.
Back before 97, it is high corporate debt across, high leveraged.
But now corporate mostly are cash rich.
At least at corporate front, situation is more healthy.
from BNM's data, outstanding Bonds (borrowings) issued by corporates (and these are big corporates, coz SME are too small to tap into the debt market) as of Sept 2011 was about RM300b , before the 1997 crisis, the corporate bond market is negligible. And we hv not talked about corporate borrowings with Banks, which can't be small, as Malaysian banks' balance sheets hv grown much bigger, how banks make money? from interest of the borrowings!!!
Added on November 24, 2011, 9:15 pm
QUOTE(cherroy @ Nov 24 2011, 04:48 PM)
Majority well run listed company are cash rich, you can see many from audited financial report of listed company.
It is totally different situation vs prior 1997, whereby most company under significant leveraged.
Dividend yield is reasonable high for most well run listed company.
Added on November 24, 2011, 4:52 pm
Not only this, a lot of company here are earning foreign money, through export, and take in money from overseas.
You can see from the foreign currency reserves of BNM, keep on escalating now already exceed USD100 billion.
Added on November 24, 2011, 4:56 pmOne can have pessimistic view based on whatever reason etc, but reality is that the demand out there is still rather strong.
Even in the latest GDP report, does state this.
May be many cash rich person/company fear about inflation?
I don't know.
But logically sense tell me, you cannot have one front worry on inflation, and another front expect to see property price crash.
LOL, how do you define "CAsh Rich" ???It is totally different situation vs prior 1997, whereby most company under significant leveraged.
Dividend yield is reasonable high for most well run listed company.
Added on November 24, 2011, 4:52 pm
Not only this, a lot of company here are earning foreign money, through export, and take in money from overseas.
You can see from the foreign currency reserves of BNM, keep on escalating now already exceed USD100 billion.
Added on November 24, 2011, 4:56 pmOne can have pessimistic view based on whatever reason etc, but reality is that the demand out there is still rather strong.
Even in the latest GDP report, does state this.
May be many cash rich person/company fear about inflation?
I don't know.
But logically sense tell me, you cannot have one front worry on inflation, and another front expect to see property price crash.
Don't look at the Cash balance of a company pls, you must take into consideration their total borrowings, If the cash is more than total borrowings, yes, this is net cash position, but how much more is Cash Rich? enough to fund the company's expenses for one year? two years? define first, before you make any such statement, coz it could be misleading.
eg, a company can borrow RM100m from banks, and when the cash from borrowings reflected in the company's cash balance, its borrowings also increased by RM100m, get it?
Added on November 24, 2011, 9:22 pm
QUOTE(GangHo @ Nov 24 2011, 05:01 PM)
(1) Public listed company in Malaysia constitute only small percentage of the total companies in Malaysia.
(2) Other companies are either directly owned or indirectly owned. Their performances? Unknown to public.
(3) Audited financial reports(no bias? totally independence?) I'm doubtful.
(4) Financial reports are closely linked to the desired share price?? what do you think?
What will happen to the employees during bad times even though company is cash rich??
In my opinion, we are lack of financial analyst that is overwhelming knowledgeable that is able to convince us of total market situation. I hope for this genius(like Nouriel Roubini, Thomas L. Friedman, Donald Trump & etc) to come out to serve its countryman.
Hi Gangho, i agreed with you 100%, especially the last part, but i just wanna shr with you what i know that cause the situation you mentioned in your last para.(2) Other companies are either directly owned or indirectly owned. Their performances? Unknown to public.
(3) Audited financial reports(no bias? totally independence?) I'm doubtful.
(4) Financial reports are closely linked to the desired share price?? what do you think?
What will happen to the employees during bad times even though company is cash rich??
In my opinion, we are lack of financial analyst that is overwhelming knowledgeable that is able to convince us of total market situation. I hope for this genius(like Nouriel Roubini, Thomas L. Friedman, Donald Trump & etc) to come out to serve its countryman.
In developed countries, Companies Disclosures are, i would say, every extensive, just grab a korean companies/US listed company's annual reports and compare to ours, you will see what i mean. Here, analysts depend very very much on information provided by the companies they cover, therefore you will notice anlayst most probably wud try not to offend those big bosses. I am NOT saying that our analysts are bias but really disclosures/transparency is lacking here and that somehow also restricted their ability to provide 100% independent analysis .
This post has been edited by godutch: Nov 24 2011, 09:28 PM
Nov 24 2011, 09:07 PM

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