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 Are property prices going to up further? V4, nothing's gonna stop us now

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frederic9
post Nov 21 2011, 11:00 AM

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property prices going UP, but rentals going DOWN. :3

so developers/sellers win, owners lose. tongue.gif
frederic9
post Nov 21 2011, 12:08 PM

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Do note that:
Every month NOT rented = rental = 0.
IF rental prices NEVER increase = loss from inflation.

It's like saying, sales UP but profit DOWN, duh?
frederic9
post Dec 13 2011, 09:55 PM

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Malaysia-level-Marketing

Developers & Investors keep using same excuses,

1. Population getting more
-Yes, like 10% MAX, but some developers are building 200% more?
-It's NOT like they DON'T DIE like your property. gee.

2. Land getting less
-Yes, people do DIE (and only gets MORE), cemetery land not enough. - -I should start buying land for cemetery, but wait, there's another scheme for cemetery land INVESTORS. o.O

3. You can get passive income / Collect rent etc
-Ya right, I buy there & rent that out(gains passive income), now I'm staying in a rented unit myself(lost back passive income)
-What if the tenant are thugs?

frederic9
post Dec 13 2011, 10:51 PM

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QUOTE(samuelazz @ Dec 13 2011, 10:38 PM)
i wonder when new year start with loan base on nett income how it will affect sales?
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Affordability will go down for sure, especially on the higher end.
Lower end (low costs flat etc) should not be affected since their gross almost equals nett anyways.

What I'm concerned is, how would it affect existing loans which will FAIL the new set of rules?
Will banks invoke their golden rule, e.g. force buyer to caught up more $$$ since they(bank) technically over loaned to the buyer.





frederic9
post Dec 14 2011, 09:27 AM

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QUOTE(katijar @ Dec 14 2011, 08:14 AM)
4. Building material cost increased...
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-Then I better go buy the bricks right? It should be much easier to flip, not buy property. hmm.gif


Added on December 14, 2011, 9:33 am
QUOTE(sampool @ Dec 14 2011, 09:11 AM)
klcc area got big flood yesterday... will it affected the prop market the surrrounding area?
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in the short term yes, later when people forgot about it, then no. smile.gif

This post has been edited by frederic9: Dec 14 2011, 09:33 AM
frederic9
post Dec 14 2011, 12:06 PM

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QUOTE(AVFAN @ Dec 14 2011, 12:02 PM)
not wise to ignore possibility of worsening floods in near future.
changes in weather patterns are not going away anytime soon.
some gomens will spend big money and do all it can to mitigate future flooding.
some will just call it act of god or bad luck, wait for next flood.

if buying new home esp in new area, should pay special attention to any news of flooding in and around that area.
we know some developers are not very responsible.
once some houses in an area are flooded, the stigma doesn't go away easily.

of course, double jeopardy when the new home area turns out to be flood prone, with a recession in the economy.
that would be a real disaster.
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For me, I would pay SPECIAL ATTENTION to those condos/apartment/houses where "murdered people found in toilet/ceiling/fridge/plastic bags in many2 parts" are located. Heck, I would blacklist the whole place just to be safe.


Added on December 14, 2011, 12:13 pm
QUOTE(katijar @ Dec 14 2011, 11:40 AM)
sorry but here if brick raise 2%, the house raise 20%. true story.
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Yet developers & investors & banks & Real Estate Companies would say there's NO or LITTLE speculation.
laugh.gif

This post has been edited by frederic9: Dec 14 2011, 12:13 PM
frederic9
post Dec 15 2011, 12:56 AM

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QUOTE(R o Y @ Dec 14 2011, 09:40 PM)
Developers are running business not a charity. If someone is willing to buy a at RM X amount then it is the right of the seller whether developer or property owner to sell at RM X.

Say you own a shop, and you sell your product at RM100 per unit.
On Monday people lineup outside your shop to buy until sold out.
On Tuesday you increase price to RM150 per unit, people also line up outside your shop to buy until sold out.
On Wednesday you increase price to RM200 per unit and people still lineup outside your shop until sold out.
On Thursday you come to open your shop and see people still lining up outside, are you still gonna sell at RM200 or increase some more?

Developer and Property Owners are only half responsible for increasing prices because price increase can only happen when there is willing buyer and willing seller
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You people always forget the other half made up of BANKS that gives out lots & lots of loans.

I changed your story this way to reflect the scenario better.

Say you own a shop, and you sell your product at RM100 per unit.
On Monday people lineup outside your shop to buy until sold out.
On Tuesday you increase price to RM150 per unit, BUT someone WILLING to LOAN you RM50, people also line up outside your shop to buy until sold out.
On Wednesday you increase price to RM200 per unit, BUT that someone NOW WILLING to LOAN you RM100, and people still lineup outside your shop until sold out.
On Thursday you come to open your shop and see people still lining up outside, are you still gonna sell at RM200 or increase some more?

This post has been edited by frederic9: Dec 15 2011, 01:01 AM
frederic9
post Dec 16 2011, 02:07 AM

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There 1 double storey terrace in USJ that's very interesting, 2009 on lelong @ 170k, now on lelong for 420k+

state of the house :
Same like 2009, unrented, with a small tree growing on the wall. LOL.

Anyway, I'm starting to see MORE banners being hung outside of houses/apartments/condos for sale/rent etc in parts of USJ. Anyone else notice similar situation in their areas?
frederic9
post Dec 21 2011, 12:21 AM

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QUOTE(UFO-ET @ Dec 20 2011, 11:54 PM)
Dun judge too early, keep yr statement for 3 years, look back in 2014, you may be wrong.
At least I know during 2008 US Crisis, those blur blur idiots who listened to sales agent and park theirs' money in property are laughing all the way to the bank now....
Unlike stock mkt, Real Estate is bout dealing with tangible goods, the supply of raw materials and land is tend to diminish and price / cost of goods is likely to be on upward trend...
IMO the only factor that will cause property price to drop is the loosen of bank loan approval, over leveraging is a risky move. Generally I feel that Malaysia banks are still very conservative and "kiasi", this helps to cool the mkt down a bit. My China engineer friend (salary RMB15K) can purchase 4 units of apt worth RMB 5.8 mil back in 2007 (maximum loan), they can factor in the future rental income into theirs' "current" salary (unbelievable!)!
Hard to imagine if this happen in bolehland, the recent China mkt's correction is largely due to aggressive lending by financial institutions cool.gif
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Chinese in China have high savings rate compared to bolehland. China's household debt was also low <50%, therefore, they have plenty of room to increase.
However, bolehland household debt is close to 80%, plus the loan based on NETT income thing to be implemented on January will easily wipe out 12-30% from loan calculation.

I agree new launches will not drop much (or developer just don't launch), but I'm looking at the secondary market or bank auctions. cool2.gif
frederic9
post Dec 23 2011, 04:01 AM

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QUOTE(R o Y @ Dec 22 2011, 08:30 PM)
You can get the House Price index for Malaysia from:http://napic.jpph.gov.my/epsKeyStatistics/...tletWindowsnpbj

1988 - 92
1989 - 96
1990 - 100
1991 - 126
1992 - 141
1993 - 148
1994 - 159
1995 - 189
1996 - 213
1997 - 217
1998 - 196
1999 - 192
2000 - 203
2001 - 206
2002 - 211
2003 - 219
2004 - 230
2005 - 235
2006 - 240
2007  -252
2008 - 264
2009 - 268
2010 - 286

From 1988-1997 prices increased 135% equivelent to 10% compounded increase per annum

From 1997-1999 prices dropped 12% equivelent to 6% drop per annum

From 1999-2010 prices increased 49% equivelent to slightly over 3% compounded increase per annum

No drop during Global Financial Crisis

The price increase we are experiencing now is nothing compared to the price increase seen during the decade before the Asian Financial Crisis.

Even with the continuous 10% compounded increase per annum prior to 1997, our House price index only dropped 12% in 2 years during the AFC.

If the market only dropped 12% during AFC, after massive gains of 10% per annum prior to AFC, do you see our market and economic fundamentals right now being worse than prior to AFC?

At 3% per annum for the past 10 years, our prices still have alot of catching up to do.

That being said, this is just my analysis of the data published by the Government. Other are welcome to share their analysis as well and hopefully we can have intelectual exchanges based on facts and figures.

I certainly do not go out there spreading false rumours. Ironically the one claiming others are making unfounded allagations is also making unfounded allagations of their own.
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Sorry, I especially don't trust this BOLDED part.




frederic9
post Jan 6 2012, 04:20 PM

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QUOTE(wwwcomment @ Jan 6 2012, 02:14 PM)
after following this tread for so long
i know the standard answer for this:
bcos no one buy over/rent their "investment" now  laugh.gif

answer:
there are a lot of cash rich ppl and cash rich company do not care whether can rent out their investment or not
they can just leave it there and let it rot and no problem.
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What you are talking about is not cash rich people.
CASH RICH people NEVER let their investment ROT, what you are talking about is NOT CASH RICH people but DUMB BRATS/DUMB ALEC.

You think you don't need to pay cukai pintu, maintenance fees, etc on your property? One fine day, I'll be picking up YOUR property from the auction house then.
frederic9
post Jan 6 2012, 04:34 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Jan 6 2012, 04:25 PM)
u dun really understand cash rich ppl. some cash rich ppl cant even count how many prop they owned.

as per the expenses u mentioned, their accountant will show only misc and they dun even bother to look at.  they oni look at big numbers..
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Sorry, CRONIES that get FREE money are not counted. People with such BAD management skills will not get rich in the first place unless they are CRONIES. Even that, there are smarter CRONIES compared from the DUMB lot of them (That's why they can't count).

Those with ONLY X0 M manages their assets well. Sorry I don't know about B that's for sure.

Cash Rich people are very good friends with developers as the always take up the BEST units before it went for sale. Therefore, the chances of them renting/selling it out are always higher.
frederic9
post Jan 6 2012, 05:12 PM

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QUOTE(lucerne @ Jan 6 2012, 04:46 PM)
rich ppl only interested how much net assets they hv in hand..they are more interested in $$ rather than units...
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What the hell are you talking about? There's no such thing as net assets.

It's obviously NET ASSETS = CASH. If you need to add other assets things to it, then you are NOT RICH.


Added on January 6, 2012, 5:16 pm
QUOTE(zuiko407 @ Jan 6 2012, 05:03 PM)
Both of u also rich man smile.gif
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I'm very poor only. sad.gif

This post has been edited by frederic9: Jan 6 2012, 05:16 PM

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