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 Solar Power Generation, for home use/sell back to tnb

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billyboy
post Jul 20 2013, 02:35 PM

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A 4kw system should be closer to rm44k? What panels brands are you assuming ?
ar188
post Jul 20 2013, 09:20 PM

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QUOTE(PitzaHuat @ Jul 19 2013, 01:45 PM)
Bro walker, hold your horse :-)

Lets assume you using 4kwh system, a month about rm450-rm500.
just to add, the rates will lower 8% every year..it's called degression rate, so what you get now in $$ and few years time is not the same even if monthly the weather give you the same kwh.
weikee
post Jul 20 2013, 10:13 PM

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QUOTE(ar188 @ Jul 20 2013, 09:20 PM)
just to add, the rates will lower 8% every year..it's called degression rate, so what you get now in $$ and few years time is not the same even if monthly the weather give you the same kwh.
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I think is for new owner apply for FiT. Not auto reduce for signed contract.
ar188
post Jul 20 2013, 10:18 PM

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QUOTE(weikee @ Jul 20 2013, 10:13 PM)
I think is for new owner apply for FiT. Not auto reduce for signed contract.
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oh..OIC..every year reduce but once lock-in contract for 21years then the price stays till 21st year. ok. found the Q&A

QUOTE
What is a ‘degression’? What does it mean and why is there a need for one?


Tariff degression refers to the annual reduction of renewable energy tariffs. The rate of reduction depends on  maturity of the technology and the existing cost reduction potential. Tariff degression applies to all technologies and will only affect a developer every time he/she applies for the FiT

For example, a home owner (A) installs a solar PV system in year 1 and signs an agreement with TNB with an FiT rate of RM1.75 per kWh. Home owner (A) will continue to receive this rate throughout his/her agreement duration of 21 yrs. A year after home owner (A) installs the system, his/her neighbour, (B) decides to install a PV system in his/her home too. By year 2 the FiT rate has now reduced by 8% to RM1.61 per kWh. Therefore, home owner (B) will now have a 21-year contract with TNB selling their PV electricity at RM1.61 per kWh. This form of degression rewards the early movers of RE in the country and also promotes cost reduction of RE technology.
can we choose our own panels if we get cheaper source? or need to buy approved panel at certain controlled prices?

This post has been edited by ar188: Jul 20 2013, 10:25 PM
ar188
post Jul 20 2013, 10:27 PM

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QUOTE
Fong also announced that SEDA Malaysia has received a directive from the Minister of Energy, Green Technology and Water that from January 1st 2014 to December 31st 2017, the degression rate for solar PV for individuals will be reduced to 0%. Currently, the degression rate for solar PV for individuals is set at 8%.

This means the FiT rates for solar PV for individuals will remain the same for the duration. The ministry anticipates that with greater public participation in the Solar Home Rooftop Programme, the public will be more willing to contribute to the Renewable Energy Fund, from which the FiT is drawn.


wah individual rate will be same until 2017..
PitzaHuat
post Jul 21 2013, 09:45 AM

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QUOTE(weikee @ Jul 20 2013, 10:03 AM)
Is it guarantee? or how do they calculate?

If you read back few pages a forumer have it install, and he give some few month data.
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Its gurantee in term of per kw you locked with TNB. but how much u can generate is up to your system setup and weather. Also do note that with full sun light for 4kw you still cant get the rated energy. Most around 80-90% of rated energy generation. So check with the company u going to hire what is the gurantee effecient the system setup.

QUOTE(Kiding @ Jul 20 2013, 11:57 AM)
4KW system with 70K cost, if you get loan for 63K, and paid 6.6% (BLR rate) interest yearly, the total pay up in 10 years will be 63,000 + 23,227 (interest) =  86,227, and assuming maintenance per year is 700, total maintenance over 21 years is 14,700

assuming you can get 4KW x 3 Hours a day (worst case scenario), which is 12KWH/day x 1.1316 = RM 13.58 per day = RM407 per month

Over 21 years, you can get RM102,564 from TNB,

So profit you make over 21 years is 102,564 - 86,227 -7,000 - 14,700 = -5,363 (Rugi !!!!, of course this is worst case scenario)

So I'd say if you get loan from bank, your PV is working for bank, not you. the FiT is only for people with cash in hand!!!
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Bro kiding, ur calculation is worst case senario and the panel doesnt cost that much le. Max rm50k for 4kw system. U still making profit just that taking very long period.

Malaysia average sunlight is more than 3 hours.
Kiding
post Jul 21 2013, 01:25 PM

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QUOTE(PitzaHuat @ Jul 21 2013, 09:45 AM)
Its gurantee in term of per kw you locked with TNB. but how much u can generate is up to your system setup and weather. Also do note that with full sun light for 4kw you still cant get the rated energy. Most around 80-90% of rated energy generation. So check with the company u going to hire what is the gurantee effecient the system setup.
Bro kiding, ur calculation is worst case senario and the panel doesnt cost that much le. Max rm50k for 4kw system. U still making profit just that taking very long period.

Malaysia average sunlight is more than 3 hours.
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Recalculate again ...

Assuming 4KW suystem is 50K, 10 years loan (10% down payment) with BLR 6.6% is 45000 + 16591(interest) = RM 61591, and assuming maintenance per year is 700, total maintenance over 21 years is 14,700

assuming you can get 4KW x 3 Hours a day (worst case scenario), which is 12KWH/day x 1.1316 = RM 13.58 per day = RM407 per month

Over 21 years, you can get RM102,564 from TNB,

So profit you make over 21 years is 102,564 - 61,591 - 5000 (10% down payment) - 14,700 = 21,273 (now looks not bad, even in worst case scenario, of course the PV system must last for 21 years)

RM 21,273 profit turn out to be RM83 per month for 21 years, if the household electricity bill is less than RM83, basically you can free electricity.
weikee
post Jul 21 2013, 05:32 PM

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QUOTE(avereng @ Apr 1 2013, 03:21 PM)
Now I know what you mean.

3.5kWh/kW is the good sunlight hours which is the performance of PV system regardless the capacity. Some people pronounced as 3.5 good sunlight hours. 3.5kWh/kW is not same as 3.5kWh

My system has capacity of 7.7kW. The generation based on 3.5kWh/kW will be 7.7kW x 3.5kWh/kW = 27kWh.

My installer compared mine to other 20++ installations. They said my system performance is above average but not the best.
The best performance was 5.2kWh/kW or 40kWh on 1st Mac. In whole Mac, 1000kWh generated from my system.
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Here is avereng real life example data. We can use his to calculate if the actual return happen. avereng use 7.7kw capacity solar panel.

This post has been edited by weikee: Jul 21 2013, 05:32 PM
ozak
post Jul 21 2013, 07:27 PM

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QUOTE(weikee @ Jul 21 2013, 05:32 PM)
Here is avereng real life example data. We can use his to calculate if the actual return happen. avereng use 7.7kw capacity solar panel.
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His calculation is confusing. rclxub.gif What does this mean --> 3.5kWh/kw ?
andrewsh
post Jul 21 2013, 08:01 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Jul 21 2013, 07:27 PM)
His calculation is confusing. rclxub.gif  What does this mean --> 3.5kWh/kw ?
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3.5kWh/kw means for every kw of solar panel, you will get 3.5kWh of energy produced in a day.
Hiha90
post Jul 21 2013, 08:10 PM

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http://seda.gov.my/. the latest rate can be found here
ozak
post Jul 21 2013, 08:12 PM

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QUOTE(andrewsh @ Jul 21 2013, 08:01 PM)
3.5kWh/kw means for every kw of solar panel, you will get 3.5kWh of energy produced in a day.
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Than it should be 3.5kwh/kwp? But is it accurate?

He have 7.7kw panel and base on 3.5hr sunlight, able to generate 27kwh ? That is 100% efficiency?
andrewsh
post Jul 21 2013, 08:30 PM

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QUOTE(ozak @ Jul 21 2013, 08:12 PM)
Than it should be 3.5kwh/kwp? But is it accurate?

He have 7.7kw panel and base on 3.5hr sunlight, able to generate 27kwh ? That is 100% efficiency?
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You are right, it should be 3.5kwh/kwp, I missed the 'p'. No system operates 100% efficiency. The 3.5hr already consider the system loses. In our country we normally get more than 3.5hr of sunlight but due to higher temperature and system losses, cloud, rain, on average we will get around 3.5kwh/kwp for our panel.
ozak
post Jul 21 2013, 09:31 PM

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QUOTE(Kiding @ Jul 21 2013, 01:25 PM)
Recalculate again ...

Assuming 4KW suystem is 50K, 10 years loan (10% down payment) with BLR 6.6% is 45000 + 16591(interest) = RM 61591, and assuming maintenance per year is 700, total maintenance over 21 years is 14,700

assuming you can get 4KW x 3 Hours a day (worst case scenario), which is 12KWH/day x 1.1316 = RM 13.58 per day = RM407 per month

Over 21 years, you can get RM102,564 from TNB,

So profit you make over 21 years is 102,564 - 61,591 - 5000 (10% down payment) - 14,700 = 21,273 (now looks not bad, even in worst case scenario, of course the PV system must last for 21 years)

RM 21,273 profit turn out to be RM83 per month for 21 years, if the household electricity bill is less than RM83, basically you can free electricity.
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That is quite low profit. Don't forget the failure part replacement for 21yrs. Specially the inverter which have a lifetime of 6-8yrs. That can cost you over rm5k for an inverter. That can setback you another 1-2yrs. A RM83/mth to subsidy your electricity is probably 70-80% of your usage.

If breakdown from your calculation and repayment to the bank in real life, RM61,591 / 120month = RM513/mth payback to bank in 10yrs.

Each month you generate RM407 --> RM513-RM407 = RM106/mth additional top up to pay the bank in 10yrs. sweat.gif Before you can earn back.

The income earning is tax able. How much additional lost from that? sweat.gif
avereng
post Jul 22 2013, 09:40 AM

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QUOTE(andrewsh @ Jul 21 2013, 08:30 PM)
You are right, it should be 3.5kwh/kwp, I missed the 'p'.  No system operates 100% efficiency.  The 3.5hr already consider the system loses.  In our country we normally get more than 3.5hr of sunlight but due to higher temperature and system losses, cloud, rain, on average we will get around 3.5kwh/kwp for our panel.
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FYI, from 7 mths operation experience, 3.5kWh/kWp is conservative assumption. During good month, 3.8-4.0kWh/kWp is possible
weikee
post Jul 22 2013, 09:47 AM

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QUOTE(avereng @ Jul 22 2013, 09:40 AM)
FYI, from 7 mths operation experience, 3.5kWh/kWp is conservative assumption. During good month, 3.8-4.0kWh/kWp is possible
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What is the lowest month your panel generate?
dude35
post Jul 22 2013, 12:22 PM

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QUOTE(Kiding @ Jul 20 2013, 11:57 AM)
4KW system with 70K cost, if you get loan for 63K, and paid 6.6% (BLR rate) interest yearly, the total pay up in 10 years will be 63,000 + 23,227 (interest) =  86,227, and assuming maintenance per year is 700, total maintenance over 21 years is 14,700

assuming you can get 4KW x 3 Hours a day (worst case scenario), which is 12KWH/day x 1.1316 = RM 13.58 per day = RM407 per month

Over 21 years, you can get RM102,564 from TNB,

So profit you make over 21 years is 102,564 - 86,227 -7,000 - 14,700 = -5,363 (Rugi !!!!, of course this is worst case scenario)

So I'd say if you get loan from bank, your PV is working for bank, not you. the FiT is only for people with cash in hand!!!
*
Now as a rule of thumb you can get 1kW between 10k-12k. So price is quite reasonable now.

Assuming 4kW system cost 48k, loan get 43.2k, paid blr 6.6% yearly, total paid up in 10 yrs would be 43,200 + 15,927 = 59,127.

Maintenance total of 21 yrs 14,700

So let me work around your calculation a bit. Using 3 hrs a day(worst case scenario),

Maximum fit rate you can get is RM1.316(below 4kw)+RM0.2392(install on roof)+RM0.03(use locally manufactured modules)=RM1.40

Use your worst case scenario 4kW x 3 hrs per day x RM1.40 x 30 days= RM 504 per mth

Direct calculation over 21 yrs RM 127,008 from TNB.

Profit is 127,008 - 59,127 - 4,300 (d/p) - 14,700 = RM 48,881. Profit. This is already worst case scenario.
g-string
post Jul 22 2013, 01:11 PM

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I made a few random calls from the providers on the SEDA website. I got an average quote of RM9k per kW.

One provider said, if possible go for the max 12kW install. This is what's allowed max per house.

So based on SEDA website, its RM1.1040 + RM0.2392 + RM0.030 = RM1.3732.

Would running 12kW make sense for investment + offset electric bill?

Anyone installed to their house before? Can you share or PM me the contact of your installer? I'm quite keen on doing this before this years quota is up.

thanks
weikee
post Jul 22 2013, 01:29 PM

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Have you all include income tax?
ozak
post Jul 22 2013, 01:56 PM

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QUOTE(g-string @ Jul 22 2013, 01:11 PM)
I made a few random calls from the providers on the SEDA website. I got an average quote of RM9k per kW.

One provider said, if possible go for the max 12kW install. This is what's allowed max per house.

So based on SEDA website, its RM1.1040 + RM0.2392 + RM0.030 = RM1.3732.

Would running 12kW make sense for investment + offset electric bill?

Anyone installed to their house before? Can you share or PM me the contact of your installer? I'm quite keen on doing this before this years quota is up.

thanks
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The provider can quote you more lower price if you want. But the output and panel quality is lower. It is not about how cheap you can go. Expensive panel have higher output, efficeincy and quality. So don't complain if your montly profit is lower and shorter life.

You can go for max of 12kw install. But very much depend on your roof space. If you have small roof or many A shape roof, not much panel kw can be install.

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