It was close enough on last Friday: 49.44..
So, if you didn't sell, then just have to wait for the next cycle.

Now, look for buying opportunity again if this dips to the 20MA (44) or lower part of the bollinger band (41).

I've unloaded some, now riding it down with PUTs.. 5th wave cycle for me.

Halloween is whole week for me..

Yes indeed. The Greeks got nothing, so there's nothing really to lose for them.
Walk away, is all they care. If the banks go down, contagion will be all over.

I think FOMC will not change anything. Traders are watching any news from Greece.
I'm covering premarket... watching 1215-1230 area tonight.

Bulls are going to call for earlier reinforcement because of anticipation that Greece will go thru with acceptance rather than rejection by Friday. Only if market can continue to dip below that 1211..bears will gain more power.

I'm still long on LVS with some hedging on the downside. I took off the puts yesterday.
During the two days pull back downturn, LVS got very good support.
I will continue to play this short term range: 44-50

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Added on November 2, 2011, 10:57 pmBuy signal in... got that bounce back up. MACD point upwards.
Going for 1250 area. Let see what happens.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 2 2011, 10:57 PM

Smart move! LVS near $50.. as always.. lots of supply there.
I'm still long, sold some today, and I'll buy back to fill that hole if it pulls back a few dollars.

Something is terribly wrong with X lately. Infact, all the steel industry in US are in bear mode this year.
AKS, NUE, STLD, etc..

It broke my resistance at 1230.. so, I'm long from there. We hit 1243 as first resistance overnight.
Next up will be 1250-1253..kinda choppy but I think we'll grind up.

Everything is hanging upon Greece this Friday and also the US jobs report too.
So, watch for that market moving event this Friday.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 3 2011, 06:58 AM

Folks, place your bets..before Friday.

Both sides.. as long as the market moves.. I gain.

But, if the market stays still.. I will lose 'coz my option will burn.

Here's my thinking.. between now and end of the year, US market wants to go up but it is being
dragged by the crisis in Europe. The bounce up from 1075 to 1290 was so quick and powerful that it
has left a lot of money managers scrambling to chase this up again on pull back. The pull back is almost as severe and quick on Monday and Tuesday and it just took the bears two days to pull back to 32.8% retracement level.
Two steps forward, one step back. But, the bias now is upside.

US corporates will continue to do business and majority of them as heavily invested in other emerging countries like Asia and Latin America and very little in that 'fug' up country in Europe and other PIIGs nations.

Big factor that will hinder US growth will still be US jobs, US debt, consumer spending/sentiments and US Fed monetary policy. US Fed is not showing any signs of tightening, continue the loosen monetary policy.. Uncle Ben got its finger on the printing machines. Therefore, US macro data matters more here. If we get slightly better than expected jobs report month over month, US market will completely forget about the stinking Europe.

Nov-Jan: Most of time, bulls usually dominate during this time, so I think history will repeat itself here. Not to say we won't get pullback or correction, it will so I'm watching for those 'overbought' conditions and ramps up when Puts are cheap as hedge to downside.

Good luck to all.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 3 2011, 07:48 PM

Check out ticker: EUO

Be aware, this is a leverage inverse ETF.

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Added on November 8, 2011, 8:46 pmThoughts for SP500 for Nov 7th to Nov 11th

SP500 - Support at 1250, Resistance at 1298. Approx. 50 pts range play.
LVS: Support 45.50 Resistance: 49.50, approx $4 play.

If you're bull, just buy as close to support.
If you're bear, just short as close to resistance.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 8 2011, 08:46 PM

Loving this volatility.. $VIX goes back above 30.

Short term trade:
Top part now: 1280 (sell area)
Bottom at: 1225 (buy area)



This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 10 2011, 02:29 AM

Prophet:
Agree with you. The financials still got no love despite the rally from SP 1075.
Most likely it is because of Europe. It is the most sector hated now.

I'm watching for commodities like miners and oil to rally up. Oil seems to be moving first.
The copper, gold and silver miners have yet to make their move.

I think those who were playing the Dow were making too much money or they got smacked down badly
and hiding in the bunker now. I'm betting the latter.

The volatility shook off a lot of people who were in the market since August. Now, Europe trumps everything.

Dow recovers some but still hasn't safely cross above that 200MA line. So, basically any less than stellar news will definitely take us back to prior year price.

Nevertheless, I'm still here.

Let's roll.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 11 2011, 08:26 AM

I'm betting more south side move this week than north side.

What's your bet?

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Added on November 11, 2011, 8:48 amYes.. I know. But, the US banks aren't hemorrhaging cash anymore but their earnings aren't used to be.
It may take some years for them to go back to the previous valuation.

BAC, C, etc.. Even JPM, one of the strongest got smacked down pretty bad.








This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 11 2011, 08:48 AM

The commercial banks with house loans to those people with less than stellar credit are definitely paying the price now.
I don't think they will stop the bleeding until home price stablise and start to gain again.

Now the average US homes are cheaper than KL (for comparable sq footage).
I'm thinking of buying one.

Whoa.. sorry not going to click that link. If you want, feel free to contribute here.

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Added on November 11, 2011, 8:50 pmNot sure about the "we" part. I think you may speaking for yourself.
Not that I don't believe in long term investing but "long" is relative nowadays.

I'm of a believer that the days of the BUY and HOLD have change and may not be applicable anymore.

You really have to be very good stock picker or able to create a strong portfolio to withstand
the dynamics of the market. I've seen good companies been taken the cleaners just because of market conditions and investors basically end up FLAT even after 10 years.

Oh well, to each its own.

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Added on November 11, 2011, 8:56 pmYou could be right.. 'coz futures are pointing north but we ended up the week down anyway.

But, I'll be keeping an eye on on that SP 1050-1055 line, going to look for opportunity to re-short later.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 11 2011, 08:58 PM

As for that part.. I believe they do allow that as part of that "regulated" process.
But, it seems pretty strict and only on certain counters. All of them seems too strong
and no volume to allow short sellers to take advantage of it.

To successful short anything, one have to take advantage of the down market when it happens and hit on
the bloated and high beta ones.

For example: This recent parabolic rise for HARVEST is good candidate. This looks like an awesome bull trapper.
So many people chasing this POS.

This post has been edited by danmooncake: Nov 11 2011, 09:07 PM

Oh yeah.. my bad. Typo.
But, I wish we're at 1050-1055. This is a tremendous buying opportunity.

Anyway, the next two weeks will be critical. If SP500 can't break above that 200MA (1275-1280),
it will be interesting to see if market can re-test Oct 4th low area (1075).